DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:50 am

I think we will see a new bump in adoption in the next 1-3 years. Soon the range increases will stop in favor of lower pricing combined with several package upgrades.

What I see is the upcoming LEAF becoming the base standard for range with models offering extended range packages. Expect entry level pricing to drop to the mid 20's before incentives topping to the upper 30's fully loaded.

An example; 40 kwh LEAF S comes standard with QC on the low end verses a 75+ kwh LEAF with Pro Pilot, etc. coming in just under $40,000.

What I expect is Chevy either bring the Sonic back with double its original range to compete or simply developing a whole new platform.


The reality is MOST OF US don't need or want to pay for 300 miles of range.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 2483 miles, 490 GIDs, 38.2 Ahr available, SOH 99.30, Hx 114.37
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:02 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:What I expect is Chevy either bring the Sonic back with double its original range to compete or simply developing a whole new platform.


I assume you mean the Spark EV.

On what do you base this expectation? The fact that you don't want to pay for more range, or do you see a legitimate business case for Chevy to offer a lower range EV than the Bolt?

What I expect is the Chevy puts the Bolt powertrain into a larger car, and that 238-mile range becomes much closer to a 200-mile range. I don't see Chevy ever offering a battery smaller than the Bolt's again. FWIW, I base my expectation on what I know about Chevy's study groups' findings. People care about range. A lot. Below 200 miles, anyway. Above 200 miles, infrastructure becomes far more important.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

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RegGuheert
Posts: 6100
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Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:48 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:I think we will see a new bump in adoption in the next 1-3 years.
That's exactly my view, as well. I expect the "bump" to last at least three years, perhaps as long as five. During that time I expect sales growth to greatly exceed the 20%/year exponential growth that has been achieved over the past seven years. That growth will be driven by the Tesla Model 3, the Chevy Bolt and the Nissan LEAF. An updated Kia Soul might also participate. Manufacturers will have difficulty selling lower-range BEVs.

Interestingly. it appears that Toyota and Honda will NOT be participating in this second round of BEV growth. They've been wasting both their own and taxpayers' resources chasing H2 FCVs. Frankly, they deserve to loose market share for their failure to understand the realities behind what is driving the transportation revolution.
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Soon the range increases will stop in favor of lower pricing combined with several package upgrades.
Exactly. There likely will be a median range which suits the bulk of users. Then I expect that median range to enjoy very gradual growth over the next several decades, much in the same way the range of gasoline cars has increased as that technology improved. Median range for ICEVs was probably around 250 miles fifty years ago, but now is likely around 400 miles or so.

One interesting difference is that typically the ICEVs with the lowest range were the vehicles with the highest performance whereas BEVs with the highest range are the same ones that have the highest performance. I suppose that might eventually change, but it is certainly true today.
GetOffYourGas wrote:<span>What I expect is the Chevy puts the<a href="http://www.mychevybolt.com/forum" class="interlinkr" target="_blank"> Bolt <span class="tip">Visit the Chevy Bolt EV</span></a>powertrain into a larger car, and that 238-mile range becomes much closer to a 200-mile range. I don't see Chevy ever offering a battery smaller than the Bolt's again. FWIW, I base my expectation on what I know about Chevy's study groups' findings. People care about range. A lot. Below 200 miles, anyway. Above 200 miles, infrastructure becomes far more important.</span>
Agreed. Future base models will probably have 200 miles of EPA range, 150 miles at the lowest. Options will take range up from there. Since we're already over 600 miles in the 200-kWh Tesla Roadster 2.0, I expect top-end BEVs to eventually offer range options above 1000 miles. In fact, we might even see that in some large autonomous trucks.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12792
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
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Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:15 am

My "1-3 year" meant the start. As far as how long it lasts? Could be 10 years if manufacturers are not ready for the onslaught ;)

Just a quick comment on range needs. Its seems we are the "driving" generation and younger generations are NOT following suit.

My Nephew is married and up until recently had 2 cars but one was rarely used, the other; lightly used. So they got rid of the car. They live in Seattle and use public tranpo extensively using the one car when out of town trips (Mother's house in Port Orchard which is across the water but a total of like 10? miles maybe since they always ferry it) due to their still young Son (just turned 2)

But in cases when they want to travel greater distances, its usually fly or train. They have little desire to "be in control" and most of their friends share that ideology. Now they are not in a good place for an EV since they have no garage and public support is still VERY weak for high density housing but that is going to change soon as well.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 2483 miles, 490 GIDs, 38.2 Ahr available, SOH 99.30, Hx 114.37
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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RegGuheert
Posts: 6100
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Location: Northern VA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:06 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:My "1-3 year" meant the start. As far as how long it lasts? Could be 10 years if manufacturers are not ready for the onslaught ;)
O.K. Then we are in total agreement here! There is no "putting the genie back in the bottle" when it comes to restraining the growth of BEVs. It will be interesting to watch the sustained growth during this transition.
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Just a quick comment on range needs. Its seems we are the "driving" generation and younger generations are NOT following suit.

My Nephew is married and up until recently had 2 cars but one was rarely used, the other; lightly used. So they got rid of the car. They live in Seattle and use public tranpo extensively using the one car when out of town trips (Mother's house in Port Orchard which is across the water but a total of like 10? miles maybe since they always ferry it) due to their still young Son (just turned 2)

But in cases when they want to travel greater distances, its usually fly or train. They have little desire to "be in control" and most of their friends share that ideology. Now they are not in a good place for an EV since they have no garage and public support is still VERY weak for high density housing but that is going to change soon as well.
I agree with this assessment. I have a mixed bag with my children. The oldest three are all "reluctant" drivers with the third oldest refusing to learn how to drive (he turns 20 this month), instead wanting to simply depend on autonomous cars. So far that autonomy comes from Mom & Dad and his friends.

The next three all are eager drivers. Perhaps not as eager as our generation, but they all want to drive.

I do think that autonomous BEVs are going to enable a transition by making vehicle ownership much less of a necessity than it has been in the past. Even if the vehicles are more expensive, they will offer additional value which will more than compensate for the added cost. Except I don't really see the added value being realized for individual owners (unless they cannot drive)--it is realized more fully when the vehicles are shared.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12792
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
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Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:My "1-3 year" meant the start. As far as how long it lasts? Could be 10 years if manufacturers are not ready for the onslaught ;)
O.K. Then we are in total agreement here! There is no "putting the genie back in the bottle" when it comes to restraining the growth of BEVs. It will be interesting to watch the sustained growth during this transition.
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Just a quick comment on range needs. Its seems we are the "driving" generation and younger generations are NOT following suit.

My Nephew is married and up until recently had 2 cars but one was rarely used, the other; lightly used. So they got rid of the car. They live in Seattle and use public tranpo extensively using the one car when out of town trips (Mother's house in Port Orchard which is across the water but a total of like 10? miles maybe since they always ferry it) due to their still young Son (just turned 2)

But in cases when they want to travel greater distances, its usually fly or train. They have little desire to "be in control" and most of their friends share that ideology. Now they are not in a good place for an EV since they have no garage and public support is still VERY weak for high density housing but that is going to change soon as well.
I agree with this assessment. I have a mixed bag with my children. The oldest three are all "reluctant" drivers with the third oldest refusing to learn how to drive (he turns 20 this month), instead wanting to simply depend on autonomous cars. So far that autonomy comes from Mom & Dad and his friends.

The next three all are eager drivers. Perhaps not as eager as our generation, but they all want to drive.

I do think that autonomous BEVs are going to enable a transition by making vehicle ownership much less of a necessity than it has been in the past. Even if the vehicles are more expensive, they will offer additional value which will more than compensate for the added cost. Except I don't really see the added value being realized for individual owners (unless they cannot drive)--it is realized more fully when the vehicles are shared.


Same here, my oldest didn't get a drivers license until he turned 19 and only because he is sure he lost a promotion because he said his primary transportation was his feet and the bus. When I asked him why he didn't want to get a car; He felt that paying insurance was a waste of money since he wasn't planning on getting into an accident... :)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 2483 miles, 490 GIDs, 38.2 Ahr available, SOH 99.30, Hx 114.37
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:57 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:paying insurance was a waste of money since he wasn't planning on getting into an accident... :)


So much wrong with this mentality. And it's part of the reason that our healthcare system is so horribly broken. But I digress.

Interesting anecdotes. Yet anecdotally, everyone I know above the age to 18 or 19 has a driver's license and a car. Maybe upstate NY (certainly not NYC) has more of a car culture than VA or WA.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

LeftieBiker
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:37 pm

During that time I expect sales growth to greatly exceed the 20%/year exponential growth that has been achieved over the past seven years.


20% a year is "steady" or "healthy" growth. (Unless it's an average of years including negative growth, in which case it's "uneven" or "irregular" growth.) Until it starts to grow at a higher rate every year I suggest you give the misnomer "exponential" a rest. It's not just unnecessary hyperbole, it's silly hyperbole given the uneven history of EV sales.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium and no QC, a 2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, and 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:19 pm

LeftieBiker wrote: 20% a year is "steady" or "healthy" growth. (Unless it's an average of years including negative growth, in which case it's "uneven" or "irregular" growth.) Until it starts to grow at a higher rate every year I suggest you give the misnomer "exponential" a rest. It's not just unnecessary hyperbole, it's silly hyperbole given the uneven history of EV sales.
It's neither a misnomer or hyperbole. Rather, it is the type of growth that is occurring with BEV sales. The term exponential simply means that the growth compounds on top of previous growth.

FWIW, sustained 20% exponential growth is VERY rapid growth, resulting in a repeated doubling of the market size in less time than every four years.

We'll see how long BEV sales can continue to sustain or exceed this level of exponential growth.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

LeftieBiker
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:32 pm

What is exponential growth? definition and meaning ...
www.businessdictionary.com/definition/e ... rowth.html

Definition of exponential growth: Increase in number or size, at a constantly growing rate. It is one possible result of a reinforcing feedback loop that makes a population or system grow (escalate) by increasingly higher amounts. ...
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium and no QC, a 2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, and 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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