When will LEAF sales reach 200,000?

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edatoakrun

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After hitting six-figure LEAF sales on 1/?/14 (anyone have the exact date?) time to guess how soon till that number is doubled.

Having been a little over-optimistic on the 100k sales thread:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13514&start=20" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm going with a relatively conservative guess of June 21, 2015.
 
Looks like Nissan sold 45k or so in 2013. So, 65k in 2014 is not that high an estimate.

Assuming, Nissan sells 30k in the US - and US continues to be 50% of the global market, we could see 60k Leafs in 2014.

By 2015 beginning, if Nissan has the "hot battery" and gen 2 battery with 150 miles of range, production capacity will decide how many they sell in 2015, rather than the demand.
 
2 weeks after I bought mine on April 20th Nissan announced 40K units sold.

I think in 2014 they will sell another 100K and the 2015's will not have the $7500 tax rebate.
 
the tax rebate was targetted for the Volt, it will not last long after the Volt uses up all it's allotment, it will not cease much before the Volt uses up all it's allotment.

The choice is, does GM choose to sell more Volts or not? A 5 seat Voltec Buick could sell. A $75k 4 seat Caddy only sells in limited amounts.
 
ydnas7 said:
the tax rebate was targetted for the Volt, it will not last long after the Volt uses up all it's allotment, it will not cease much before the Volt uses up all it's allotment.
Tax credit (not rebate) was not "targeted" at Volt - but was written to maximize for Volt. It will not finish after Volt finishes 200k - after all TN has as many senators as MI (and all Dem senators support tax credits anyway).
 
Lasareath said:
2 weeks after I bought mine on April 20th Nissan announced 40K units sold.

I think in 2014 they will sell another 100K and the 2015's will not have the $7500 tax rebate.
There is an article in insideevs (or some other place) that lists the Leaf sales globally in '13. It is about 45k. So, no, they won't sell another 100k (even globally) in 2014.

BTW, that 200k for tax credit purpose is only US - where we have some 40k Leafs sold till now.
 
Can anyone tell me why Inside EVs has such different numbers than the IRS?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
evnow said:
Lasareath said:
2 weeks after I bought mine on April 20th Nissan announced 40K units sold.

I think in 2014 they will sell another 100K and the 2015's will not have the $7500 tax rebate.
There is an article in insideevs (or some other place) that lists the Leaf sales globally in '13. It is about 45k. So, no, they won't sell another 100k (even globally) in 2014.

BTW, that 200k for tax credit purpose is only US - where we have some 40k Leafs sold till now.

Yeah, we've got a while to go yet. I think there will be a pretty good window for people to buy the 2016s with the full credit.
 
forummm said:
Can anyone tell me why Inside EVs has such different numbers than the IRS?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The IRS numbers show the "credits" that the company sold to other companies - not the cars sold to customers.
 
evnow said:
forummm said:
Can anyone tell me why Inside EVs has such different numbers than the IRS?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The IRS numbers show the "credits" that the company sold to other companies - not the cars sold to customers.

Thanks. How does that work? Is Nissan selling a tax credit to, say, Ford because Nissan is buying so many Leafs (through leases)? Does that mean Nissan is closer to running out of tax credits than the sales figures would suggest?
 
forummm said:
Thanks. How does that work? Is Nissan selling a tax credit to, say, Ford because Nissan is buying so many Leafs (through leases)? Does that mean Nissan is closer to running out of tax credits than the sales figures would suggest?
I was thinking about CARB ZEV credits. Search for that - you will get a lot of information.

Not sure why IRS would publish something like that, though.
 
the tax credit law requires at least a 16kwh battery for access to the maximum $7,500 credit. below that capacity number, the credit is proportional.

Both the Volt and the iMiev had that 16kwh battery capacity to maximize the federal tax credit.

The law also says that it is available for the first 200,000 cars sold in the USA per manufacturer. no mention if it is per model. we will see that battle as soon as manufacturers start reaching the 200k number for a model.
 
forummm said:
Can anyone tell me why Inside EVs has such different numbers than the IRS?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

probably intervals of updates. other than.... oh say, Aprilish or so, how often do you correspond with the IRS?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
forummm said:
Can anyone tell me why Inside EVs has such different numbers than the IRS?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

probably intervals of updates. other than.... oh say, Aprilish or so, how often do you correspond with the IRS?
But the IRS lists almost 65,000 2011-2013 LEAFs sold as of May 2014. I thought the actual number was LOWER than that...
 
RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
forummm said:
Can anyone tell me why Inside EVs has such different numbers than the IRS?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

probably intervals of updates. other than.... oh say, Aprilish or so, how often do you correspond with the IRS?
But the IRS lists almost 65,000 2011-2013 LEAFs sold as of May 2014. I thought the actual number was LOWER than that...

umm, you mean 55,718? sounds about right to me for year end. then 10,000 since the beginning of the year? that sounds a bit low to me...
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
umm, you mean 55,718?
No. The number in the IRS link provided says 64,782.

Perhaps I am looking at the wrong number?

Edit: Now I see what you are saying. 55,718 on December 31, 2013 plus another 10,640 during the first quarter of 2014.

Thanks for clarifying!

But InsideEVs shows 5184 LEAFs sold in the first three months of 2014, which is less than one-half what is listed by the IRS. I wonder why?
 
RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
umm, you mean 55,718?
No. The number in the IRS link provided says 64,782.

Perhaps I am looking at the wrong number?

Edit: Now I see what you are saying. 55,718 on December 31, 2013 plus another 10,640 during the first quarter of 2014.

Thanks for clarifying!

But InsideEVs shows 5184 LEAFs sold in the first three months of 2014, which is less than one-half what is listed by the IRS. I wonder why?

right and add that to the 8,000 plus in the last 3 months and we have a discrepancy

oh wait. I guess it does not really clarify what YTD 2014 means. at the bottom, it states page last updated may 23rd so it would have missed all the excitement...
 
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