Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

[rcm4453]

What about the vastly superior driving experience you get in a BEV? An electric drivetrain is so much more refined then any ICE vehicle out there! So silky smooth, no vibrations, so peacfully quiet! After driving electric for 6 years now I must say it's the refined electric drive that does it for me!

No, all the soccer moms and people looking for cheap cars don't care about that but there are still a lot of people out there that desire such attributes in a vehicle.

Unfortunately many of these people are unaware that BEVs drive so nicely, too many misconceptions about BEVs exist today.

[WetEV]

"Main" doesn't mean "everybody" in any definition. I agree that numerically, low fuel and ownership costs are the "majority" (if you prefer that word) driver of EV sales.

Who buys a Tesla Model S or a Model X for "low fuel and ownership costs"?

Yes, Tesla isn't quite a majority of BEV sales, they have only about 45% market share for pure electrics. When you add all of the PHEVs, Tesla has about a 25% market share. A significant fraction of other BEVs and PHEVs are sold to people that want a Tesla, but can't afford one. Or have the yearly drive to Grandma's house without any public charging so really need a PHEV.

I don't agree that low fuel and ownership costs are main reason for EV sales. Might be in some places, for sure. Might have been so when gasoline was over $4 per gallon. Clearly low cost is the reason for some people.

However, low ownership costs are partly created by subsidies. In the context of "how would the BEV market develop without subsidies", ~$10k in subsidies don't have much if any impact on the purchase of a $100k+ car. So I agree that subsidies did and will drive the sales of moderate priced BEVs, however the "Suck Amps" crowd and the slightly more sedate Tesla crowd would still likely be making and or buying BEVs. Subsidies or no subsidies. The other advantages of BEVs would also still apply. Quiet and smooth driving. No trips to gas station, can start every day with a "full tank". That part of the market would also be there.

Clearly low ownership costs is not the reason for everyone. Or Tesla wouldn't have that market share.

[GetOffYourGas]

we can only hope for something that can at least equal fossil-fueled ICEs in most areas, while exceeding them in others and falling short in areas that most people don't care about.

People find a way to care about things they never did before. They may not care about it, but heaven forbid you tell them they're going to have to give it up. Even for three new things that they care about a whole lot.

IMO, 5-minute refueling falls largely into this category. For daily use, a BEV is already far more convenient than an ICEV. If you never exceed the car's range, refueling is done in seconds (to plug/unplug). For longer trips, we're almost there. In many cases, a BEV could still be more convenient to refuel even in the middle of a long trip than a comparable ICEV. If the car is recharged while the driver enjoys a nice meal, it again takes seconds of his/her time to plug/unplug the car rather than 5 minutes of standing in a cloudof toxic fumes.

[WetEV]

Reasons why people buy plug in cars from a survey.

While "Save money on fuel" is the largest reason for buying a BEV, it is less than half in California in 2015. So not even a majority.



"Save money on fuel" was the largest reason in England.

[LeftieBiker]

Clearly low ownership costs is not the reason for everyone.

OK, I give up. You just can't let go of that strawman.

[RegGuheert]

If I project that Nissan will sell about 10,000 LEAFs each month this year, then it appears that the LEAF will sell approximately the same number of LEAFs as Toyota did during the first year of sales after the Prius refresh. The difference is that Toyota did the refresh one year earlier in the life-cycle of that product. The result is that the LEAF is going to fall behind the Prius in cumulative sales this year. But it remains to be seen if the LEAF can make up that ground in future years.

All-in-all, this is still a very good result for the LEAF given it has WAY more competition in its space than the Prius did at the same point in its life cycle.

[RegGuheert]

This article at InsideEVs puts Nissan's tally of cumulative worldwide LEAF sales at over 320,000 in March 2018. I estimate it is closer to 330,000 at the end of March, but perhaps not quite.

Going forward, it seems that Nissan will sell significantly more than 10,000 LEAFs each month this year, so perhaps they will approach Toyota's Prius sales for the equivalent year of about 175,000.