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Stanton
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:18 pm

Interesting summary. No matter which way you slice it, I think you would have to declare the Leaf v1.0 a great success! I know I like mine :D
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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:00 pm

donald wrote:I would expect the majority of take up to be virtually instant for those who 'get it' straight away (and can afford the purchase cost), and then virtually flat-line and drift upwards at a glacial pace after everyone who 'gets it' is mopped up and the rest slowly cotton on or get to the point to afford 2nd hand prices.
That's what this thread is intended to track, with the Prius as a reference.

Personally, I don't see it flat-lining (or nearly so). When Nissan releases a second-generation version of the LEAF, hopefully with real improvements over generation I, I expect many people to jump off the fence and make a purchase, just as happened with the Gen-II Prius.
Stanton wrote:Interesting summary. No matter which way you slice it, I think you would have to declare the Leaf v1.0 a great success! I know I like mine :D
+1 That's the main point here! It seems that Nissan is executing at least as well with the LEAF as Toyota did with the Prius.

In the U.S., 2014 sales through May are up 36% over 2013. If this trend is worldwide, then the 2014 numbers could be quite a bit higher than what I have estimated in the table in the OP.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

peter
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:26 pm

Btw - I believe 2001 was the first Prius model sold in the US. I still have mine - 140K miles, though I did have to change the traction battery at ~110K.

Hope my Leaf lasts as long (though not looking too good right now...)

donald
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:46 pm

RegGuheert wrote:That's what this thread is intended to track, with the Prius as a reference.

Personally, I don't see it flat-lining (or nearly so). When Nissan releases a second-generation version of the LEAF, hopefully with real improvements over generation I, I expect many people to jump off the fence
Sure, I agree, it will be interesting to watch how the 'psychology' of EV buying goes, which this may help illuminate a little.

I also agree that there are ways to make EVs more mainstream. At the moment, I think sub-100 mile EVs (translates to 50 mile EVs in deep winter!) are 'niche'. I think a 50~75 mile range is more practical than many in the 'main-stream' might give credit for so it is also not necessarily that Leaf itself is currently 'a niche product', simply that many see it as such because it is a paradigm change on their use and expectations of a car. Something like a Model E, if it is ever put on the market and really delivers on range and price, could well change that niche image, but I don't think a Leaf II will do it, it will take a few iterations.

I'm quite happy to be shown wrong on this. We are now spectators!....

derkraut
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:47 pm

TomT wrote:It's something of an apples and oranges comparison... The first generation of the Prius was a pretty dismal car, based on the equally dismal Echo econobox... It wasn't until the second generation that sales really took off (which you can see in the chart).

I had one of those "Echo econoboxes". Bought it new for about $11,000 in 2001; drove it for 10 years; averaged about 38-40mpg over 60K miles; gave it to my daughter in Dallas when I bought the Leaf; she is still driving it today. So far, in 13yrs and 80K+ miles, one set of tires, one battery, routine oil/filter changes. One of the best cars I ever had. I certainly wouldn't call it "dismal". :roll:
Derkraut
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evnow
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:58 pm

If we look at both Prius & Leaf - we see initial takeup in the first year (which I think cleared off the "pent up demand"). The second year was a flatline.

Then came a mid generation change and price drop that has been propelling sales. May be it will flatline in a year or so - when we'll need another big change to move sales to another level.

I think Leaf gen 2 is a year late (in '16). So, it is possible in '15 we'll have some flatlining.

All this in the US - works slightly differently worldwide.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 3:06 pm

donald wrote:I also agree that there are ways to make EVs more mainstream. At the moment, I think sub-100 mile EVs (translates to 50 mile EVs in deep winter!) are 'niche'. I think a 50~75 mile range is more practical than many in the 'main-stream' might give credit for so it is also not necessarily that Leaf itself is currently 'a niche product', simply that many see it as such because it is a paradigm change on their use and expectations of a car.
I'm in full agreement here! My number one feedback to Nissan as an advisory board member is to increase the range. (Not that I have any say! ;) ) I feel a US EPA number of 125 miles is a great target to allow for nearly any home-based round trip to be completed comfortably for years to come as the battery degrades.
donald wrote:Something like a Model E, if it is ever put on the market and really delivers on range and price, could well change that niche image, but I don't think a Leaf II will do it, it will take a few iterations.
I see all EV competitors as "raising all ships" by giving validity to the market. As EVs with more capabilities at lower prices become available, the market size will explode. We will continue to see companies fail in the EV space, but some will succeed and I expect Nissan will continue to be among them. Compare Nissan's performance with Mitsubishi!
donald wrote:I'm quite happy to be shown wrong on this. We are now spectators!....
Pass the popcorn! (This will be an an epic drama which plays out over many years.)
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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TomT
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 4:34 pm

The first generation Leaf is far more polished and a "real" car than the first generation Prius/Echo was... Due to the realities of battery capacity requirements, they are more limited in what they can for the Gen 2 Leaf than the Prius was...

evnow wrote:May be we'll say the same about Leaf after 2nd gen comes around ;)
59,991 miles/12 bars/289 Gids/68.54 AHr/101% SOH/101.64% Hx 7May15 w/ new Lizard (barely made the warranty).
71,770 miles/12 bars/256 Gids/59.04 AHr/88% SOH/87.92% Hx 3Mar16 at lease return.

Now driving a 2016 Volt Premier. Model 3 reserved.

cwerdna
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:25 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
evnow wrote:BTW, didn't Prius not get sold in the US for a couple of years ?
Yes. First two years were Japan only for the Prius.

The 1st gen Prius that was JDM only was the NHW10 (steering wheel on the "wrong side", no touchscreen but instead buttons underneath a color LCD) that began sale in December 97. It's referred to as "Original" at http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm. From the outside, the NHW10 and NHW11 look real similar.

As for Prius, the 1st gen we got in the US didn't start selling until August 2000, the NHW11.

http://priuschat.com/threads/prius-mk1-nhw10-making-funny-sound.81733/#post-1142083 has some pictures of the NHW10, including that of the LCD. Numerous used NHW10s have made it to other countries that drive on the same side of the road as Japan (e.g. the UK and Australia). I'd say that NHW10 was pretty close to a Toyota science experiment, at best.

For whatever reason, the NHW11 is referred to by the world as 1st gen and lumped into 1st gen by Toyota even though the NHW10 came before...

The NHW20 (04-09 model year) marked the beginning of the iconic hatchback design and the ZVW30 is the current gen (began w/2010 model year).
evnow wrote:BTW, I bought my earlier ICE in 1998 - and didn't even consider Prius. I guess it was not available in Seattle at that time ? We bought another car in 2003 - and we did look at Prius. But we couldn't buy it because we'd have had to wait for 6 months to get it (this was in St Louis).

I don't remember the situation well in 03 which marked the beginning of the 04 model year but I do believe supply was pretty constrained. I test drove an 04 in 04 and I was told if I wanted one, I'd be on a waiting list and have to wait several months. When I got my 06 in January 06, I had put myself on a waiting list in late 05, paid a small deposit and was told to wait several months. The dealer didn't even have any on the lot, because they were being picked up by people in line almost immediately. 06 marked the beginning of the $3150 Federal tax credit instead of the lame $2000 tax deduction. CA HOV stickers had been available for awhile.

Do keep in mind gas was real cheap back at NHW11 intro. Per http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... US_DPG&f=W, regular unleaded in Aug 2000 was under $1.50/gal. And, for 03, from NHW20 intro to rest of 03, gas was under $2/gal, mostly in the $1.50/gal range.

'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

RonDawg
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:20 am

cwerdna wrote:Numerous used NHW10s have made it to other countries that drive on the same side of the road as Japan (e.g. the UK and Australia).


I wonder how many ex-JDM Prii have been certified for use on Australia's roads (especially the NHW10, which like in the US was not sold Down Under). Australia's used vehicle importation laws are pretty strict unless the car is a pre-1989 model, is being brought over by an immigrant permanently settling in Australia directly from their former country (or an Aussie living abroad for over a year), or was originally sold in Australia and is being re-imported after being abroad. The guidelines for doing so are here:

http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicl ... 150114.pdf and skip to page 10.

It's a different story in New Zealand, whose vehicle importation laws are relatively lax compared to Australia (and the US). When I was there in 2006, I saw TONS of ex-JDM cars there from the 1990's, and a few Kiwis have even come to this forum regarding importing ex-JDM Leafs (and the problems of lack of support from Nissan NZ for such cars).
Last edited by RonDawg on Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar at 34 months/26,435 miles. Lease returned 2 months later. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F.
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL.

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