Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

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RegGuheert

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We have had some previous discussion of LEAF sales versus Prius sales, but I thought it might be interesting to have a thread which compared this data directly. By nearly any metric, the Toyota Prius has been a big success, and thus it may be informative to compare relative LEAF sales.

Sales numbers are from Wikipedia for both the Prius and the LEAF.
Code:
+------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius versus LEAF Worldwide Sales       |
|                    (in thousands)                    |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Prius | Prius | Prius | LEAF | LEAF  | LEAF  | LEAF/ |
| Year  | Sales | Cum.  | Year | Sales | Cum.  | Prius |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
|  1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 | 2010 |  0.05 | 0.05  |   16% |
|  1998 |  17.7 |  18.0 | 2011 |  22.0 |  22.1 |  123% |
|  1999 |  15.2 |  33.2 | 2012 |  27.0 |  49.1 |  148% |
|  2000 |  19.0 |  52.2 | 2013 |  47.7 |  96.8 |  184% |
|  2001 |  29.5 |  81.7 | 2014 |  61.5 |   158 |  194% |
|  2002 |  28.1 |   110 | 2015 |  43.7 |   202 |  184% |
|  2003 |  43.2 |   153 | 2016 |  51.9 |   254 |  166% |
|  2004 | 125.7 |   279 | 2017 |  46.0 |   300 |  108% |
|  2005 | 175.2 |   454 | 2018 |       |       |       |
|  2006 | 185.6 |   640 | 2019 |       |       |       |
|  2007 | 281.3 |   921 | 2020 |       |       |       |
|  2008 | 285.7 |  1207 | 2021 |       |       |       |
|  2009 | 404.2 |  1611 | 2022 |       |       |       |
|  2010 | 509.4 |  2120 | 2023 |       |       |       |
|  2011 | 433.1 |  2553 | 2024 |       |       |       |
|  2012 | 892.5 |  3446 | 2025 |       |       |       |
|  2013 | 808.6 |  4252 | 2026 |       |       |       |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
- The percentage of LEAF sales to Prius sales in the last column is cumulative.

9/20/2016 Edit: Added 2016 LEAF full-year sales estimates to the table.
2/17/2017 Edit: Adjusted 2016 LEAF sales numbers.
6/1/2017 Edit: Projected 2017 sales based on first four months' sales
1/8/2018 Edit: Adjusted (down) full 2017 numbers based on Nissan's announcement that they have sold 300,000 LEAFs.
 
It's something of an apples and oranges comparison... The first generation of the Prius was a pretty dismal car, based on the equally dismal Echo econobox... It wasn't until the second generation that sales really took off (which you can see in the chart).
 
TomT said:
It's something of an apples and oranges comparison... The first generation of the Prius was a pretty dismal car, based on the equally dismal Echo econobox... It wasn't until the second generation that sales really took off (which you can see in the chart).
May be we'll say the same about Leaf after 2nd gen comes around ;)

BTW, didn't Prius not get sold in the US for a couple of years ?
 
Indeed, apples and oranges.

Prius owners could be anyone. Prius can be used anywhere as a direct ICE replacement. Well, it is an ICE after all, just with some [supposedly] fuel saving features. So the Prius market/brand can build continually.

BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.

I'm sure Leaf is not yet saturating its potential market, but it is a certain sales inviting purchases from a smaller target set of potential buyers.
 
donald said:
BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.
No - you don't expect to see a faster initial take. Prius initially and Leaf (initially) appealed to very similar set of people.
 
evnow said:
May be we'll say the same about Leaf after 2nd gen comes around ;)
I would say "definitely" we will say that, given we already pretty much do!

BTW, it seems as if the second-generation LEAF may end up occurring at about the same time as the second-generation Prius did: about six years in.
evnow said:
BTW, didn't Prius not get sold in the US for a couple of years ?
Yes. First two years were Japan only for the Prius. LEAF sales were mainly Japan and US the first two years, although other countries also had sales. But I will argue the first two years are largely limited by the desire to ramp production slowly and this is reflected in their similar sales numbers.

But the above chart gives the bottom line. Toyota and Nissan each made their respective decisions about vehicle design and production roll-out. At the end of the day. only total sales matters.
evnow said:
donald said:
BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.
No - you don't expect to see a faster initial take. Prius initially and Leaf (initially) appealed to very similar set of people.
Agreed. If anything, I would expect the Prius to have the faster take rate *because* it does not require any change in behavior. OTOH, LEAF offers the benefit of being able to be refueled at home, which Prius did not offer.
 
I owned a first generation Prius, and a second, and a third. And I bought all of them because I like high-tech cars. I like digital displays. I like cool drive-train technology. The fuel economy and environmental benefits were just bonuses for me. The same is true of our current Leaf and Volt. Bought for mostly the same reasons, although the convenience of fueling at home certainly did add an extra incentive. Also because of the higher price, the fuel savings was almost required in order to justify the expense (vs. sticking with our Prius).
 
It is a smaller battery pack but I wonder how much it weighs? The savings come from what stop and go slow traffic and a very small engine?

So if you know you are going on a long trip and will not be in stop and go traffic using the battery, it would be nice to be able to drop the battery out to get even better mileage?


donald said:
Indeed, apples and oranges.

Prius owners could be anyone. Prius can be used anywhere as a direct ICE replacement. Well, it is an ICE after all, just with some [supposedly] fuel saving features. So the Prius market/brand can build continually.
 
One difference I'd note is that - there was an "EV Movement" by the time Leaf arrived. Obviously a lot more awareness of the ills of oil as well. Not sure Prius had such a following when it was released.

BTW, I bought my earlier ICE in 1998 - and didn't even consider Prius. I guess it was not available in Seattle at that time ? We bought another car in 2003 - and we did look at Prius. But we couldn't buy it because we'd have had to wait for 6 months to get it (this was in St Louis).
 
I don't see how the Prius offered that much which was removed from ICE. It used maybe a bit less fuel but overall cost was no better than a cheaper but less economic car, especially when considering its basic interior and small-car feel.

It represented no fuel advantage at all in Europe where the better diesel cars were already exceeding the Prius, by some margin. I was looking for a car at the end of 2000 myself and had considered a Prius - I recall calling Toyota to tell me how much a replacement battery could cost out of warranty, and they hadn't a clue - but went for a Skoda Octavia TDi 110bhp (variable geometry turbo) instead in which I averaged 85 mpg on my regular commute, and which was also a better riding, better quality, bigger and cheaper car. Prius was very poor competition to 'euro-diesels' at the time.

A Leaf offers a wholly different proposition to an ICE so is not in the same decision-flow as Prius would have been.

Hybrids present a direct competition with ICE, EVs present a new paradigm. EVs are not direct ICE competition. I would expect the majority of take up to be virtually instant for those who 'get it' straight away (and can afford the purchase cost), and then virtually flat-line and drift upwards at a glacial pace after everyone who 'gets it' is mopped up and the rest slowly cotton on or get to the point to afford 2nd hand prices.
 
Interesting summary. No matter which way you slice it, I think you would have to declare the Leaf v1.0 a great success! I know I like mine :D
 
donald said:
I would expect the majority of take up to be virtually instant for those who 'get it' straight away (and can afford the purchase cost), and then virtually flat-line and drift upwards at a glacial pace after everyone who 'gets it' is mopped up and the rest slowly cotton on or get to the point to afford 2nd hand prices.
That's what this thread is intended to track, with the Prius as a reference.

Personally, I don't see it flat-lining (or nearly so). When Nissan releases a second-generation version of the LEAF, hopefully with real improvements over generation I, I expect many people to jump off the fence and make a purchase, just as happened with the Gen-II Prius.
Stanton said:
Interesting summary. No matter which way you slice it, I think you would have to declare the Leaf v1.0 a great success! I know I like mine :D
+1 That's the main point here! It seems that Nissan is executing at least as well with the LEAF as Toyota did with the Prius.

In the U.S., 2014 sales through May are up 36% over 2013. If this trend is worldwide, then the 2014 numbers could be quite a bit higher than what I have estimated in the table in the OP.
 
Btw - I believe 2001 was the first Prius model sold in the US. I still have mine - 140K miles, though I did have to change the traction battery at ~110K.

Hope my Leaf lasts as long (though not looking too good right now...)
 
RegGuheert said:
That's what this thread is intended to track, with the Prius as a reference.

Personally, I don't see it flat-lining (or nearly so). When Nissan releases a second-generation version of the LEAF, hopefully with real improvements over generation I, I expect many people to jump off the fence
Sure, I agree, it will be interesting to watch how the 'psychology' of EV buying goes, which this may help illuminate a little.

I also agree that there are ways to make EVs more mainstream. At the moment, I think sub-100 mile EVs (translates to 50 mile EVs in deep winter!) are 'niche'. I think a 50~75 mile range is more practical than many in the 'main-stream' might give credit for so it is also not necessarily that Leaf itself is currently 'a niche product', simply that many see it as such because it is a paradigm change on their use and expectations of a car. Something like a Model E, if it is ever put on the market and really delivers on range and price, could well change that niche image, but I don't think a Leaf II will do it, it will take a few iterations.

I'm quite happy to be shown wrong on this. We are now spectators!....
 
TomT said:
It's something of an apples and oranges comparison... The first generation of the Prius was a pretty dismal car, based on the equally dismal Echo econobox... It wasn't until the second generation that sales really took off (which you can see in the chart).
I had one of those "Echo econoboxes". Bought it new for about $11,000 in 2001; drove it for 10 years; averaged about 38-40mpg over 60K miles; gave it to my daughter in Dallas when I bought the Leaf; she is still driving it today. So far, in 13yrs and 80K+ miles, one set of tires, one battery, routine oil/filter changes. One of the best cars I ever had. I certainly wouldn't call it "dismal". :roll:
 
If we look at both Prius & Leaf - we see initial takeup in the first year (which I think cleared off the "pent up demand"). The second year was a flatline.

Then came a mid generation change and price drop that has been propelling sales. May be it will flatline in a year or so - when we'll need another big change to move sales to another level.

I think Leaf gen 2 is a year late (in '16). So, it is possible in '15 we'll have some flatlining.

All this in the US - works slightly differently worldwide.
 
donald said:
I also agree that there are ways to make EVs more mainstream. At the moment, I think sub-100 mile EVs (translates to 50 mile EVs in deep winter!) are 'niche'. I think a 50~75 mile range is more practical than many in the 'main-stream' might give credit for so it is also not necessarily that Leaf itself is currently 'a niche product', simply that many see it as such because it is a paradigm change on their use and expectations of a car.
I'm in full agreement here! My number one feedback to Nissan as an advisory board member is to increase the range. (Not that I have any say! ;) ) I feel a US EPA number of 125 miles is a great target to allow for nearly any home-based round trip to be completed comfortably for years to come as the battery degrades.
donald said:
Something like a Model E, if it is ever put on the market and really delivers on range and price, could well change that niche image, but I don't think a Leaf II will do it, it will take a few iterations.
I see all EV competitors as "raising all ships" by giving validity to the market. As EVs with more capabilities at lower prices become available, the market size will explode. We will continue to see companies fail in the EV space, but some will succeed and I expect Nissan will continue to be among them. Compare Nissan's performance with Mitsubishi!
donald said:
I'm quite happy to be shown wrong on this. We are now spectators!....
Pass the popcorn! (This will be an an epic drama which plays out over many years.)
 
The first generation Leaf is far more polished and a "real" car than the first generation Prius/Echo was... Due to the realities of battery capacity requirements, they are more limited in what they can for the Gen 2 Leaf than the Prius was...

evnow said:
May be we'll say the same about Leaf after 2nd gen comes around ;)
 
RegGuheert said:
evnow said:
BTW, didn't Prius not get sold in the US for a couple of years ?
Yes. First two years were Japan only for the Prius.
The 1st gen Prius that was JDM only was the NHW10 (steering wheel on the "wrong side", no touchscreen but instead buttons underneath a color LCD) that began sale in December 97. It's referred to as "Original" at http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm. From the outside, the NHW10 and NHW11 look real similar.

As for Prius, the 1st gen we got in the US didn't start selling until August 2000, the NHW11.

http://priuschat.com/threads/prius-mk1-nhw10-making-funny-sound.81733/#post-1142083 has some pictures of the NHW10, including that of the LCD. Numerous used NHW10s have made it to other countries that drive on the same side of the road as Japan (e.g. the UK and Australia). I'd say that NHW10 was pretty close to a Toyota science experiment, at best.

For whatever reason, the NHW11 is referred to by the world as 1st gen and lumped into 1st gen by Toyota even though the NHW10 came before...

The NHW20 (04-09 model year) marked the beginning of the iconic hatchback design and the ZVW30 is the current gen (began w/2010 model year).
evnow said:
BTW, I bought my earlier ICE in 1998 - and didn't even consider Prius. I guess it was not available in Seattle at that time ? We bought another car in 2003 - and we did look at Prius. But we couldn't buy it because we'd have had to wait for 6 months to get it (this was in St Louis).
I don't remember the situation well in 03 which marked the beginning of the 04 model year but I do believe supply was pretty constrained. I test drove an 04 in 04 and I was told if I wanted one, I'd be on a waiting list and have to wait several months. When I got my 06 in January 06, I had put myself on a waiting list in late 05, paid a small deposit and was told to wait several months. The dealer didn't even have any on the lot, because they were being picked up by people in line almost immediately. 06 marked the beginning of the $3150 Federal tax credit instead of the lame $2000 tax deduction. CA HOV stickers had been available for awhile.

Do keep in mind gas was real cheap back at NHW11 intro. Per http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, regular unleaded in Aug 2000 was under $1.50/gal. And, for 03, from NHW20 intro to rest of 03, gas was under $2/gal, mostly in the $1.50/gal range.
 
cwerdna said:
Numerous used NHW10s have made it to other countries that drive on the same side of the road as Japan (e.g. the UK and Australia).

I wonder how many ex-JDM Prii have been certified for use on Australia's roads (especially the NHW10, which like in the US was not sold Down Under). Australia's used vehicle importation laws are pretty strict unless the car is a pre-1989 model, is being brought over by an immigrant permanently settling in Australia directly from their former country (or an Aussie living abroad for over a year), or was originally sold in Australia and is being re-imported after being abroad. The guidelines for doing so are here:

http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/imports/files/Importing_Vehicles_to_Australia_Brochure_150114.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and skip to page 10.

It's a different story in New Zealand, whose vehicle importation laws are relatively lax compared to Australia (and the US). When I was there in 2006, I saw TONS of ex-JDM cars there from the 1990's, and a few Kiwis have even come to this forum regarding importing ex-JDM Leafs (and the problems of lack of support from Nissan NZ for such cars).
 
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