User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5622
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:33 am

I have updated the OP with an estimate of 65,000 LEAFs sold worldwide in 2014. This number is an extrapolation based on 50,000 LEAFs sold between February and November 2014 when the LEAF crossed the 100,000 and 150,000 marks, respectively, with a little end-of-year growth thrown in.

That puts LEAF worldwide sales at 2.25X sales of the Prius during their fourth full calendar year on the market and brings cumulative sales for the LEAF to nearly double that achieved by the Prius during their first four years and one month on the market.

In its fifth full calendar year of production, worldwide Prius sales dropped slightly during a period when gas prices were low. Likewise, the LEAF will face strong sales headwinds in 2015 due to low gasoline prices as well as the promise of longer-range EVs on the horizon. Nissan will need to at least maintain the 2014 sales rate in order to get to double the cumulative sales of the Prius during the upcoming year.

I will update the table again once worldwide sales numbers for 2014 are available.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12331
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:35 am

RegGuheert wrote:I have updated the OP with an estimate of 65,000 LEAFs sold worldwide in 2014. This number is an extrapolation based on 50,000 LEAFs sold between February and November 2014 when the LEAF crossed the 100,000 and 150,000 marks, respectively, with a little end-of-year growth thrown in.

That puts LEAF worldwide sales at 2.25X sales of the Prius during their fourth full calendar year on the market and brings cumulative sales for the LEAF to nearly double that achieved by the Prius during their first four years and one month on the market.

In its fifth full calendar year of production, worldwide Prius sales dropped slightly during a period when gas prices were low. Likewise, the LEAF will face strong sales headwinds in 2015 due to low gasoline prices as well as the promise of longer-range EVs on the horizon. Nissan will need to at least maintain the 2014 sales rate in order to get to double the cumulative sales of the Prius during the upcoming year.

I will update the table again once worldwide sales numbers for 2014 are available.


not sure we can really compare sales. they ideology of the two companies could not have been farther apart.

Nissan is fully on board with the LEAF and large volume manufacturing has been in their wheelhouse from day one.

Toyota started slowly with the Prius not realizing until MY 2004 that the demand was much greater than they could supply. This caused an extreme shortage until just before the release of MY 2007. So the sales numbers will be depressed but not by demand, it was by supply.

Toyota simply could not transition existing lines to build the Prius fast enough. I remember press releases when they announced they were increasing US wide volumes by like 15,000 a year or so and thinking well that might cover a few states...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5622
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:30 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:not sure we can really compare sales. they ideology of the two companies could not have been farther apart.
There is some truth to this statement since the vision within Nissan was coming from Carlos Ghosn while the vision within Toyota was driven by a product manager with a passion for the project. That said, it does not follow that sales from the two cannot be compared. In fact, I am doing just that! The Toyota Prius is considered a very successful environmentally-friendly product offering, so this is a decent yardstick to use for measuring the LEAF's progress.
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Nissan is fully on board with the LEAF and large volume manufacturing has been in their wheelhouse from day one.
Not so. Nissan restricted manufacture of the LEAF and its batteries to a single factory each in Japan during the first two years of production, just like Toyota did with the Prius. And, not surprisingly, they both sold approximately the same number of vehicles during that initial period. At the end of the second calendar year, both made some product changes and changed the manufacturing situation. Toyota moved the Prius to a different factory in Japan while Nissan expanded to three factories around the world.

Also, both products suffered from problems with their early traction batteries as well as difficulties with their 12V batteries occasionally going dead. Toyota has fully addressed both of those issues while the jury is still out on Nissan's response.
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Toyota started slowly with the Prius not realizing until MY 2004 that the demand was much greater than they could supply. This caused an extreme shortage until just before the release of MY 2007. So the sales numbers will be depressed but not by demand, it was by supply.
The LEAF has also been constrained by supply on multiple occasions. Often this has been due to the long lead time required to ramp up new versions of the battery, which has a very long lead time.
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Toyota simply could not transition existing lines to build the Prius fast enough. I remember press releases when they announced they were increasing US wide volumes by like 15,000 a year or so and thinking well that might cover a few states...
You are simply talking about differences in their go-to-market strategy. This is as much a product roll-out issue as anything else, so it is a part of the equation that is being compared. If Nissan has managed the introduction of the LEAF to the market much better than Toyota, then that will be reflected in the numbers here.

An important point to keep in mind is that both products have their major product improvement version occur during the sixth calendar year. That is when demand took off for the Prius and it is the point at which demand for the LEAF needs to take off for the LEAF to be able to possibly hold its own against the Prius over the next few years. Both products have drawn in competition as they have demonstrated the viability of the market, but Toyota was extremely successful at putting down virtually all of their competitors. I seriously doubt that Nissan can achieve this level of success with the LEAF, but it will be interesting to watch to see how things play out.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11430
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:15 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Not so. Nissan restricted manufacture of the LEAF and its batteries to a single factory each in Japan during the first two years of production, just like Toyota did with the Prius.

This is how it really played out.

First year - Leaf was really production constrained - exacerbated by the Tsunami and related problems.

Second year - Nissan increased the price (a result of Tsunami), which tanked sales. This meant - the roll out plan of Leaf was scaled back. So, Leaf's production is expanding a lot slower than initially envisioned.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

smkettner
Posts: 7019
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (49 months - 19

Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:18 pm

This might be a bit narrow minded but I would prefer a comparison of USA sales only.
I don't know if Prius was how successful in other parts of the world or if the distribution can be compared directly.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5622
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (49 months - 19

Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:35 pm

smkettner wrote:This might be a bit narrow minded but I would prefer a comparison of USA sales only.
I don't know if Prius was how successful in other parts of the world or if the distribution can be compared directly.
And I'm not opposed to that idea. However, every time I've thought of doing it, I've quickly realized that it is somewhat impossible to make a reasonable comparison. There are two main issues:

1) Sales of the Prius started in the middle of the calendar year while sales of the LEAf started in December.
2) Prius was already in a second generation by the time it sold in the US while LEAF was in its first generation.

If anyone can figure a way to make that comparison work, I'm interested to see it.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12331
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:26 pm

evnow wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Not so. Nissan restricted manufacture of the LEAF and its batteries to a single factory each in Japan during the first two years of production, just like Toyota did with the Prius.

This is how it really played out.

First year - Leaf was really production constrained - exacerbated by the Tsunami and related problems.

Second year - Nissan increased the price (a result of Tsunami), which tanked sales. This meant - the roll out plan of Leaf was scaled back. So, Leaf's production is expanding a lot slower than initially envisioned.


citing actual events does not change my position that Nissan was aiming for full production from day one. The timing of the announcement of the TN and UK plant confirms this. Toyota had no such plans until well after the Nov 2003 Iconic launch.

it simply took time to get it all together. Toyota instead wanted to be assured of a market before they put out any money. They were lucky in that a downturn in the market allowed them to convert existing factories over to the Prius.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5622
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (61 months - 184%)

Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:12 pm

Updated OP to include full 2015 sales results. According to Wikipedia, Nissan sold 43,651 LEAFs in 2015, which brings the cumulative worldwide total after 61 months on the market to 201,991.

Compared with worldwide Prius sales, I see the following:

- LEAF experienced a 29% contraction in unit sales (from 61,507) during this fifth full year on the market. This exceeds the 4.8% contraction which the Toyota Prius experienced during its same full year on the market by a wide margin. (That was the Prius' second early contraction with a larger 14% contraction occurring in its second full year on the market.)

- U.S. gasoline prices during the Prius' fifth full year of sales (1998: $1.36/gal) were 28% HIGHER than U.S. gasoline prices during it's first full year of sales (1998: $1.06/gal).

- U.S. gasoline prices during the LEAF's fifth full year of sales (2015 estimated: $2.40/gal) were 34% LOWER than U.S. gasoline prices during it's first full year of sales (2012: $3.64/gal).

- LEAF unit sales during its FIFTH full year on the market slightly exceeded Prius unit sales during its SIXTH full year on the market.

- LEAF cumulative unit sales through 61 months on the market are 184% of Prius unit sales during its first 61 months on the market.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

cwerdna
Gold Member
Posts: 7261
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (61 months - 184%)

Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:30 pm

^^^
I haven't been following this thread and apparently I did reply to it earlier (e.g. viewtopic.php?p=373052#p373052). I'm not sure what you're using as a baseline for first year, fifth year or whatever, but as we pointed out earlier, NHW10 Prius was JDM-only. That was the version that's referred to as "Original" at http://john1701a.com/prius/images/Prius-Generations.png and went on sale in December 97: http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm.

NHW11 aka "Classic" at the above URLs is NHW11 and is the first version that we ever got in the US, and presumably rest of world.

Also, I posted in the link above the waiting list situation. That eventually went away towards the end of Gen 2 (which spanned 04 to 09 model years).

'13 blue Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 blue Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12331
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (61 months - 184%)

Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:43 pm

cwerdna wrote:^^^
I haven't been following this thread and apparently I did reply to it earlier (e.g. viewtopic.php?p=373052#p373052). I'm not sure what you're using as a baseline for first year, fifth year or whatever, but as we pointed out earlier, NHW10 Prius was JDM-only. That was the version that's referred to as "Original" at http://john1701a.com/prius/images/Prius-Generations.png and went on sale in December 97: http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm.

NHW11 aka "Classic" at the above URLs is NHW11 and is the first version that we ever got in the US, and presumably rest of world.

Also, I posted in the link above the waiting list situation. That eventually went away towards the end of Gen 2 (which spanned 04 to 09 model years).


comparisons here mean less than nothing. For people like cwerdna and me, we know that Prius sales were hampered by supply BIG TIME. Toyota could have easily tripled sales of 2004-2005 Priuses if they had been smart enough to build that many.

Just an example of the demand at the time. I had a 2004 Prius base model, minimum options that was $20,344 out the door (WA State had tax exemption on hybrids at the time) on June 30th, 2004. I drove it 26 months, put 31,000 miles on it and it was in an accident on Aug 28th, 2006 when a truck turned left in front of me.

Because demand had driven sale prices of both new and used Priuses thru the roof, the other lady's insurance company paid me $23,400 for the car. I then put in another $1200 (tax exemption still in place!) and bought a 2006 Prius IV with the insurance payout.

so I essntially drove a new car for 2+ years and traded it in for another new (and better car!) car for $1200... not a bad deal I think :)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Return to “News & Main LEAF Discussion”