Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

[RegGuheert]

comparisons here mean less than nothing.

If this comparison is not of interest to you, then why do you click on the thread?

Rather than rehashing this again-and-again, please simply read my previous response here:

coming in late to the discussion and sure this has already been mentioned but can't really start the Prius at 1997... to say it had worldwide distribution at that point is stretching it a bit

I never said the Prius had worldwide distribution. No argument here that Japan was the extent of their worldwide sales the first two years, but when comparing worldwide sales, you need to include those years.

Again, I am comparing bottom-line worldwide performance of the Prius versus the LEAF. The difference in their first two years was merely in their go-to-market strategy. There were some similarities and some differences:
- Both companies decided to build all of the production units in a single factory in Japan.
- Both companies limited production to about the same level for the first two years: ~20,000/year.
- Toyota chose to limit sales to Japan. This reduced their initial expense and their sales expense and also limited their exposure in case the product was a failure.
- Nissan chose to sell the LEAF widely in several different markets. This approach incurred additional up-front expenses and additional sales and marketing expenses, but it exposed Nissan to significantly more risk had the product failed.

In order to compare the LEAF to the Prius worldwide sales, it does not make sense to compare the first generation LEAF product performance with the second-generation Prius product performance.

[DaveinOlyWA]

just pointing out the obvious on one reason the Prius sales were lower. but thanks for the reminder. I hadn't realized this thread was that old. I had no recollection of any previous responses

[RegGuheert]

Updated the OP with 2016 sales numbers. With the Nissan LEAF leading worldwide EV sales in 2016 at 51,882 units delivered, the LEAF has outsold the Toyota Prius in each of its first six years of sales and has a cumulative sales lead over the Prius of 166% of Prius (254K units versus 153K units) sales during its first 73 months on the market.

The next sales year is when the Toyota Prius had its breakout year with a tripling of unit deliveries. Considering that the Nissan has not yet given the LEAF a full product refresh, it is not likely to deliver the 126K units that Toyota delivered with the Prius in its 7th year. But Nissan is likely to maintain a slim cumulative lead by the end of next year.

The good news is that even though 2017 LEAF sales will almost certainly be eclipsed by 2004 Prius sales, one of the main reasons for this is that the BEV market is MUCH more diverse in 2017 than the HEV market was in 2004. Prius was the very clear HEV market leader with competitors selling tiny volumes by comparison. While the Nissan LEAF lead the BEV market in 2016, it has a large number of competitors selling in respectable volumes.

In any case, expect to see the sales number for the Nissan LEAF II and other BEVs grow significantly as range increases significantly.

[RegGuheert]

The Nissan LEAF is global top seller for 2017 through April.

The next sales year is when the Toyota Prius had its breakout year with a tripling of unit deliveries. Considering that the Nissan has not yet given the LEAF a full product refresh, it is not likely to deliver the 126K units that Toyota delivered with the Prius in its 7th year. But Nissan is likely to maintain a slim cumulative lead by the end of next year.

I have updated the OP by projecting 2017 sales to be 3X current sales or 55,000. That is less than half of the Prius' seventh-full-year sales, but will put the LEAF at 309,000 cumulative sales, which is about 111% of Prius cumulative sales at the same point.

I do not expect LEAF 2 sales to explode like those of the Prius refresh due to the many entries currently in the BEV market. The Prius had no such competition back in 2004, as discussed previously:

The good news is that even though 2017 LEAF sales will almost certainly be eclipsed by 2004 Prius sales, one of the main reasons for this is that the BEV market is MUCH more diverse in 2017 than the HEV market was in 2004. Prius was the very clear HEV market leader with competitors selling tiny volumes by comparison. While the Nissan LEAF lead the BEV market in 2016, it has a large number of competitors selling in respectable volumes.

[GetOffYourGas]

I do not expect LEAF 2 sales to explode like those of the Prius refresh due to the many entries currently in the BEV market. The Prius had no such competition back in 2004

So would a better comparison actually be all affordable BEVs in 2017 versus all hybrids in 2004? Do we have access to those sales numbers?

[RegGuheert]

I have updated the table in the OP of this thread. Based on the LEAF's 2017 sales of only about 1/3 of what the Prius had in its equivalent year, it now barely holds a cumulative lead over the Prius at the same point in its life. This is certainly the result of the refresh coming over a year earlier in the Prius' life.

What's interesting here is that after seven full years of sales, cumulative LEAF sales are STILL (barely) edging out the Prius, even though the LEAF has many more viable competitors in the market. And going forward, it has rather compelling competition now shipping in the form of the Chevy Bold and the Tesla Model 3. If it manages to approach the 175,000 units that the Prius achieved in its eighth year on the market, that would be a truly remarkable feat given the difference in competition level. Frankly, it would be amazing if the MY2018 and MY2019 LEAFs could even muster 100,000 sales this coming calendar year, but we'll keep watching and see how things turn out.

What we are clearly seeing in TOTAL BEV sales versus TOTAL hybrid sales in the earlier period is that the uptake rate of BEVs is quite a bit faster than the uptake rate of gasoline-electric hybrids was 13 years prior. Because of the new BEV offerings which are rapidly coming to market, I also expect that BEVs will not experience the plateauing of sales that has occurred with gasoline-electric hybrids.

[GetOffYourGas]

Because of the new BEV offerings which are rapidly coming to market, I also expect that BEVs will not experience the plateauing of sales that has occurred with gasoline-electric hybrids.

I agree with your conclusion but not your reason. I don't think BEVs sales will plateau either (although the pending end of tax credits could cause a temporary one). I don't think it's because of the number of offerings, though.

10-15 years ago, hybridization was starting to spread across more offerings from more manufacturers. The trouble with hybrids is that their only real advantage to the owner is lower fuel costs. Otherwise, it's just another ICEV. And one with an extra expensive part to potentially replace (as was the case with Honda's hybrid batteries).

BEVs, on the other hand, offer many benefits beyond lower fuel costs. They are much more convenient to fuel (at home, over night). They are more pleasant to drive than their ICEV counterparts (opposite that of hybrids). Etc. People are starting to catch on to these benefits (and tell their friends!). IMO, that's going to be a bigger driver towards keeping BEV sales growing than simply the expanding number of options on the market.

[LeftieBiker]

Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.

[RegGuheert]

Because of the new BEV offerings which are rapidly coming to market, I also expect that BEVs will not experience the plateauing of sales that has occurred with gasoline-electric hybrids.

I agree with your conclusion but not your reason.

I agree with all you wrote here. I will also note that, unlike HEVs, the incremental improvements in BEVs are not plateauing, but are continuing in a significant way. While efficiency is probably close to its physical limit, range, charging speed, battery durability, price, and options are all improving steadily. These continual improvements translate directly into a larger addressed market.

[GetOffYourGas]

Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.

Point taken. I still feel that this benefit of hybrids is less of a differentiateor than the many benefits of a BEV (e.g. convenient home fueling).