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RegGuheert
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Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (73 months - 166%)

Wed Jun 18, 2014 8:37 am

We have had some previous discussion of LEAF sales versus Prius sales, but I thought it might be interesting to have a thread which compared this data directly. By nearly any metric, the Toyota Prius has been a big success, and thus it may be informative to compare relative LEAF sales.

Sales numbers are from Wikipedia for both the Prius and the LEAF.

Code: Select all

+------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius versus LEAF Worldwide Sales       |
|                    (in thousands)                    |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Prius | Prius | Prius | LEAF | LEAF  | LEAF  | LEAF/ |
| Year  | Sales | Cum.  | Year | Sales | Cum.  | Prius |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
|  1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 | 2010 |  0.05 | 0.05  |   16% |
|  1998 |  17.7 |  18.0 | 2011 |  22.0 |  22.1 |  123% |
|  1999 |  15.2 |  33.2 | 2012 |  27.0 |  49.1 |  148% |
|  2000 |  19.0 |  52.2 | 2013 |  47.7 |  96.8 |  184% |
|  2001 |  29.5 |  81.7 | 2014 |  61.5 |   158 |  194% |
|  2002 |  28.1 |   110 | 2015 |  43.7 |   202 |  184% |
|  2003 |  43.2 |   153 | 2016 |  51.9 |   254 |  166% |
|  2004 | 125.7 |   279 | 2017 |  55.0?|   309?|  111% |
|  2005 | 175.2 |   454 | 2018 |       |       |       |
|  2006 | 185.6 |   640 | 2019 |       |       |       |
|  2007 | 281.3 |   921 | 2020 |       |       |       |
|  2008 | 285.7 |  1207 | 2021 |       |       |       |
|  2009 | 404.2 |  1611 | 2022 |       |       |       |
|  2010 | 509.4 |  2120 | 2023 |       |       |       |
|  2011 | 433.1 |  2553 | 2024 |       |       |       |
|  2012 | 892.5 |  3446 | 2025 |       |       |       |
|  2013 | 808.6 |  4252 | 2026 |       |       |       |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
- The percentage of LEAF sales to Prius sales in the last column is cumulative.

9/20/2016 Edit: Added 2016 LEAF full-year sales estimates to the table.
2/17/2017 Edit: Adjusted 2016 LEAF sales numbers.
6/1/2017 Edit: Projected 2017 sales based on first four months' sales.
Last edited by RegGuheert on Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:08 am, edited 10 times in total.
RegGuheert
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TomT
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:07 am

It's something of an apples and oranges comparison... The first generation of the Prius was a pretty dismal car, based on the equally dismal Echo econobox... It wasn't until the second generation that sales really took off (which you can see in the chart).
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evnow
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:05 am

TomT wrote:It's something of an apples and oranges comparison... The first generation of the Prius was a pretty dismal car, based on the equally dismal Echo econobox... It wasn't until the second generation that sales really took off (which you can see in the chart).

May be we'll say the same about Leaf after 2nd gen comes around ;)

BTW, didn't Prius not get sold in the US for a couple of years ?
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donald
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:15 am

Indeed, apples and oranges.

Prius owners could be anyone. Prius can be used anywhere as a direct ICE replacement. Well, it is an ICE after all, just with some [supposedly] fuel saving features. So the Prius market/brand can build continually.

BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.

I'm sure Leaf is not yet saturating its potential market, but it is a certain sales inviting purchases from a smaller target set of potential buyers.

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evnow
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:28 am

donald wrote:BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.

No - you don't expect to see a faster initial take. Prius initially and Leaf (initially) appealed to very similar set of people.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:43 am

evnow wrote:May be we'll say the same about Leaf after 2nd gen comes around ;)
I would say "definitely" we will say that, given we already pretty much do!

BTW, it seems as if the second-generation LEAF may end up occurring at about the same time as the second-generation Prius did: about six years in.
evnow wrote:BTW, didn't Prius not get sold in the US for a couple of years ?
Yes. First two years were Japan only for the Prius. LEAF sales were mainly Japan and US the first two years, although other countries also had sales. But I will argue the first two years are largely limited by the desire to ramp production slowly and this is reflected in their similar sales numbers.

But the above chart gives the bottom line. Toyota and Nissan each made their respective decisions about vehicle design and production roll-out. At the end of the day. only total sales matters.
evnow wrote:
donald wrote:BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.

No - you don't expect to see a faster initial take. Prius initially and Leaf (initially) appealed to very similar set of people.
Agreed. If anything, I would expect the Prius to have the faster take rate *because* it does not require any change in behavior. OTOH, LEAF offers the benefit of being able to be refueled at home, which Prius did not offer.
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adric22
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:09 pm

I owned a first generation Prius, and a second, and a third. And I bought all of them because I like high-tech cars. I like digital displays. I like cool drive-train technology. The fuel economy and environmental benefits were just bonuses for me. The same is true of our current Leaf and Volt. Bought for mostly the same reasons, although the convenience of fueling at home certainly did add an extra incentive. Also because of the higher price, the fuel savings was almost required in order to justify the expense (vs. sticking with our Prius).
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kieranmullen
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:11 pm

It is a smaller battery pack but I wonder how much it weighs? The savings come from what stop and go slow traffic and a very small engine?

So if you know you are going on a long trip and will not be in stop and go traffic using the battery, it would be nice to be able to drop the battery out to get even better mileage?


donald wrote:Indeed, apples and oranges.

Prius owners could be anyone. Prius can be used anywhere as a direct ICE replacement. Well, it is an ICE after all, just with some [supposedly] fuel saving features. So the Prius market/brand can build continually.
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evnow
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:15 pm

One difference I'd note is that - there was an "EV Movement" by the time Leaf arrived. Obviously a lot more awareness of the ills of oil as well. Not sure Prius had such a following when it was released.

BTW, I bought my earlier ICE in 1998 - and didn't even consider Prius. I guess it was not available in Seattle at that time ? We bought another car in 2003 - and we did look at Prius. But we couldn't buy it because we'd have had to wait for 6 months to get it (this was in St Louis).
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with worldwide Prius sales

Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:59 pm

I don't see how the Prius offered that much which was removed from ICE. It used maybe a bit less fuel but overall cost was no better than a cheaper but less economic car, especially when considering its basic interior and small-car feel.

It represented no fuel advantage at all in Europe where the better diesel cars were already exceeding the Prius, by some margin. I was looking for a car at the end of 2000 myself and had considered a Prius - I recall calling Toyota to tell me how much a replacement battery could cost out of warranty, and they hadn't a clue - but went for a Skoda Octavia TDi 110bhp (variable geometry turbo) instead in which I averaged 85 mpg on my regular commute, and which was also a better riding, better quality, bigger and cheaper car. Prius was very poor competition to 'euro-diesels' at the time.

A Leaf offers a wholly different proposition to an ICE so is not in the same decision-flow as Prius would have been.

Hybrids present a direct competition with ICE, EVs present a new paradigm. EVs are not direct ICE competition. I would expect the majority of take up to be virtually instant for those who 'get it' straight away (and can afford the purchase cost), and then virtually flat-line and drift upwards at a glacial pace after everyone who 'gets it' is mopped up and the rest slowly cotton on or get to the point to afford 2nd hand prices.

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