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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:04 pm

GRA wrote:And before Jeff Dahn or Yi Cui there was Stan Whittingham: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M_Stanley_Whittingham

and John Goodenough: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Goodenough

This stuff stretches back into the early '70s, when the first Lithium (primary) battery was commercialized by a division of Exxon.
Neither Whittington nor Goodenough developed NMC technology, so they are irrelevant to your claim that we would somehow be stuck on Lithium Cobalt Oxide technology. The simple fact is that NMC was invented about 25 years ago in a Canadian university under funding from 3M, so, no, we would not be stuck on Lithium Cobalt Oxide today.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
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GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:11 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:And before Jeff Dahn or Yi Cui there was Stan Whittingham: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M_Stanley_Whittingham

and John Goodenough: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Goodenough

This stuff stretches back into the early '70s, when the first Lithium (primary) battery was commercialized by a division of Exxon.
Neither Whittington nor Goodenough developed NMC technology, so they are irrelevant to your claim that we would somehow be stuck on Lithium Cobalt Oxide technology. The simple fact is that NMC was invented about 25 years ago in a Canadian university under funding from 3M, so, no, we would not be stuck on Lithium Cobalt Oxide today.

That wasn't my point, they both 'invented' Li-ion technology, to the extent that anyone can be said to invent something. In actuality, everyone stands on the shoulders of those who've gone before, and most inventions are invented more or less simultaneously by different people, because the enabling tech that makes it possible has arrived, and there's some demand for it. Or sometimes, the demand can be created (i.e. the technology 'push' instead of 'pull' model).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:24 pm

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:The simple fact is that NMC was invented about 25 years ago in a Canadian university under funding from 3M, so, no, we would not be stuck on Lithium Cobalt Oxide today.
That wasn't my point,....
But it is PRECISELY what you SAID that prompted me to point out where NMC came from:
GRA wrote:Actually,much of Li-ion battery development has been driven by Govt. research, not to mention funding battery factories (tax breaks etc.), so I don't think your contention is absolute. We might still be using better Li-Co-O2 batteires, with their higher risk of thermal runaway otherwise...
You can try to change the subject, but we can all read what you wrote.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:27 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:The simple fact is that NMC was invented about 25 years ago in a Canadian university under funding from 3M, so, no, we would not be stuck on Lithium Cobalt Oxide today.
That wasn't my point,....
But it is PRECISELY what you SAID that prompted me to point out where NMC came from:
GRA wrote:Actually,much of Li-ion battery development has been driven by Govt. research, not to mention funding battery factories (tax breaks etc.), so I don't think your contention is absolute. We might still be using better Li-Co-O2 batteires, with their higher risk of thermal runaway otherwise...
You can try to change the subject, but we can all read what you wrote.

Oh, okay, I see where you're coming from. But then who developed Li-Mn-02, or Li-Fe-PO4, or Li-NCA, all of which have been used in place of Li-Co-O2 for BEVs? Who paid for that research, and why?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:41 pm

GRA wrote:Oh, okay, I see where you're coming from. But then who developed Li-Mn-02, or Li-Fe-PO4, or Li-NCA, all of which have been used in place of Li-Co-O2 for BEVs? Who paid for that research, and why?
It matters not. Those are NOT precursors to NMC, so we would not be stuck with LI-Co-O2.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:50 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Oh, okay, I see where you're coming from. But then who developed Li-Mn-02, or Li-Fe-PO4, or Li-NCA, all of which have been used in place of Li-Co-O2 for BEVs? Who paid for that research, and why?
It matters not. Those are NOT precursors to NMC, so we would not be stuck with LI-Co-O2.

As they are substitutes for Li-Co-02, we're not stuck with it. Whether they were the result of push or pull, I couldn't say, although I suspect it was more the former.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:16 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Sure, battery research and development owes much to government research, staring with at minimum the space program, moving to the energy crisis of the 1970's and on. But the major use that was driving the volume manufacturing was laptops and cell phones. Volume manufacturing is what drives prices down. Falling prices for batteries make BEVs practical.

So what would have happened without the CARB ZEV mandate that produced the EV1?

I don't know, you don't know.

There were already home made conversion cars back in the 1990s. Perhaps Zelectric would have filled the Tesla slot. Perhaps even Plasma Boy. Or from the Chinese, which have started about 50 car companies in recent years. Or even Nissan. Or someone else. Once the technology gets out in the wild, it has the potential of exploding (defined as growing at 20% per year). It might have been much slower to start... Or maybe faster without the polarizing Elon Musk.

There are millions of ways that EVs might have gotten started without the EV1 and/or Tesla. Some of these ways match your opinion. Some do not. We can never know which way would have happened with CARB mandates, or any other action for that matter.


There were homemade conversion cars back in the '60s at least (and production BEVs in the 1900s), Big 3 interest in the late '60s and government support for their development back in the '70s as a result of the Oil Embargo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle#1990s:_Revival_of_interest


Ah yes, but the earlier cars were mostly lead acid batteries. Not an ideal technology.

GRA wrote:Suffice it to say that the cars lacked desirability for the mass market, just as has been the case with the first gen. of 21st century production BEVs, even though the latter were much improved over the former. From the '80s on powerful cars and then SUVs started to take hold once oil prices declined, and that held right up until 2004 when prices spiked again. Ever since the first time fossil-fueled ICEs drove BEVs out of the market in the 19-teens, the main driver of interest in and research on BEVs (and AFVs generally) has been high oil prices. You could add concerns about GHGs and air pollution to that, especially now, but for the average person that's distinctly secondary.


Only high fuel prices?

Only?

We must know different people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rVTIpS5zb4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vTCK9ywBA

Suck Amps!

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WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:11 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Sure, battery research and development owes much to government research, staring with at minimum the space program, moving to the energy crisis of the 1970's and on. But the major use that was driving the volume manufacturing was laptops and cell phones. Volume manufacturing is what drives prices down. Falling prices for batteries make BEVs practical.

So what would have happened without the CARB ZEV mandate that produced the EV1?

I don't know, you don't know.

There were already home made conversion cars back in the 1990s. Perhaps Zelectric would have filled the Tesla slot. Perhaps even Plasma Boy. Or from the Chinese, which have started about 50 car companies in recent years. Or even Nissan. Or someone else. Once the technology gets out in the wild, it has the potential of exploding (defined as growing at 20% per year). It might have been much slower to start... Or maybe faster without the polarizing Elon Musk.

There are millions of ways that EVs might have gotten started without the EV1 and/or Tesla. Some of these ways match your opinion. Some do not. We can never know which way would have happened with CARB mandates, or any other action for that matter.


There were homemade conversion cars back in the '60s at least (and production BEVs in the 1900s), Big 3 interest in the late '60s and government support for their development back in the '70s as a result of the Oil Embargo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle#1990s:_Revival_of_interest


Ah yes, but the earlier cars were mostly lead acid batteries. Not an ideal technology.

And NiFE, and NA-S, NiCd, NiMH etc. While Li-ion batteries are better than these, they're not an ideal technology either. An ideal battery tech would last the lifetime of the car with no degradation, weigh next to nothing and take up no space, provide instantaneous 0-60 times, have unlimited range so it never needs recharging, and be free. As none of that's likely, we can only hope for something that can at least equal fossil-fueled ICEs in most areas, while exceeding them in others and falling short in areas that most people don't care about.

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Suffice it to say that the cars lacked desirability for the mass market, just as has been the case with the first gen. of 21st century production BEVs, even though the latter were much improved over the former. From the '80s on powerful cars and then SUVs started to take hold once oil prices declined, and that held right up until 2004 when prices spiked again. Ever since the first time fossil-fueled ICEs drove BEVs out of the market in the 19-teens, the main driver of interest in and research on BEVs (and AFVs generally) has been high oil prices. You could add concerns about GHGs and air pollution to that, especially now, but for the average person that's distinctly secondary.

Only high fuel prices?

Only?

We must know different people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rVTIpS5zb4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vTCK9ywBA

Suck Amps!

Love the smell of ozone in the morning!

As I wrote, the MAIN driver of interest in BEVs has been high oil prices. What exactly does drag racing have to do with the general public's interest (more accurately lack of same) in BEVs for their daily transportation? I know that IEVS posts Model S PxxxD vs. whatever drag racing videos whenever they need to fill some space, and that appeals to some people, but what real world significance does that have? Most people aren't driving around in top fuel funny cars, or Formula 1/E cars either.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:03 pm

GRA wrote:As I wrote, the MAIN driver of interest in BEVs has been high oil prices.


As you assert.... I'd agree that that is the main driver of interest for some people.

Not everyone agrees.


GRA wrote:What exactly does drag racing have to do with the general public's interest (more accurately lack of same) in BEVs for their daily transportation?


Some people are different than you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2XiCYA3C9s

Remember that something new often starts with a niche product. Build one that ten people want. Sell those ten people ten more, that a hundred people want. And so on. Starts in a fringe. Each round is better and cheaper and "more mainstream". You seem to think that the low end, caring only about cost, is the only place of interest.

Tesla didn't start at the low end. Almost no one buys a Tesla to save money on gasoline. Even if gasoline hit $10 per gallon.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:15 pm

What's with the strawman arguments, Wet EV? "Main" doesn't mean "everybody" in any definition. I agree that numerically, low fuel and ownership costs are the "majority" (if you prefer that word) driver of EV sales. And I was in a drag racing team (pit crew) when I was 13 years old...
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