Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

[cwerdna]

^^^
Interesting re: Australia. Didn't know that. I'll have to look into that when I have some time.

A quick Google search for site:priuschat.com nhw10 australia seems to reveal a few.

[RegGuheert]

I'd say that NHW10 was pretty close to a Toyota science experiment, at best.

Call it what you will, Toyota sold nearly 71,000 copies of the XW10 according to Wikipedia. Of those 71,000 XW10s, it sounds like over 37,000 were the NHW10 style:

Production commenced in December 1997 at the Takaoka plant in Toyota, Aichi, ending in February 2000 after cumulative production of 37,425 vehicles. Production recommenced in May 2000 at the Motomachi plant in the same area, before XW10 manufacture ended in June 2003 after a further 33,411 vehicles had been produced.

In other words, Toyota built more of the NHW10 style that you referred to as a "science experiment" than the NHW11, which you referred to as the first generation Prii. That doesn't sound like a science experiment to me. Perhaps the article is in error?

[GetOffYourGas]

If we look at both Prius & Leaf - we see initial takeup in the first year (which I think cleared off the "pent up demand"). The second year was a flatline.

Then came a mid generation change and price drop that has been propelling sales. May be it will flatline in a year or so - when we'll need another big change to move sales to another level.

I think Leaf gen 2 is a year late (in '16). So, it is possible in '15 we'll have some flatlining.

All this in the US - works slightly differently worldwide.

Try 2017 for Gen 2.

http://insideevs.com/nissan-provides-de ... 017-debut/

Next-generation Nissan LEAF expected to arrive right after Nissan’s Power 88 business plan, which ends March 31, 2017

It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.

[RegGuheert]

Try 2017 for Gen 2.

http://insideevs.com/nissan-provides-de ... 017-debut/

Next-generation Nissan LEAF expected to arrive right after Nissan’s Power 88 business plan, which ends March 31, 2017

That would make it very parallel with the Prius, which would make for a more interesting comparison.

It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.

Perhaps, but it seems Nissan is finally starting to pull away from supply constraints (mainly batteries). If the 2015s capacity loss is dramatically lower than previous LEAFs, that could improve word-of-mouth.

Finally, there is the price of gasoline. That is an ever-present wildcard which could open the floodgates at any time. I do not count out that possibility. The availability of PV solar limits the impact of rising electricity prices, at least for homeowners.

[bbrowncods]

It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.

Is a whole american car sales are picking up and I am seeing a greater trend toward more economical transportation. If you consider my situation; six months ago I didn't even know what a Leaf looked like, and barely knew it was one of those "electric" cars. It took a busy week where I dropped $200 in the tank of my 2011 Toyota Tundra (14MPG) that caused me to wake up. I don't need a truck that bad!
The major benefit for me was the Nissan dealer network. I know there are complaints with Nissan, but every dealer in the country knows what a Leaf is. You can't say that about Toyota and RAV4 EV. The numbers are there.

I considered the Tesla. The price was just not justifiable for me. The "E" may be different!

The bottom line for sales is a quality car, economical to operate, and a company that stands behind their product. The federal and state incentives don't hurt. One added thing - Leaf sales will be directly proportional to gas prices. Just like it was for Prius. The difference now is that, for the common car buyer, the Leaf offers the option to get completely off of gasoline for the first time.

[GetOffYourGas]

It's possible that we'll see some flatlining in 2015. It's almost guaranteed to happen in 2016.

Perhaps, but it seems Nissan is finally starting to pull away from supply constraints (mainly batteries). If the 2015s capacity loss is dramatically lower than previous LEAFs, that could improve word-of-mouth.

True. Nissan is starting to resolve the supply constraints. Personally, I expect the result to be that they actually discover where the demand ceiling is for the Leaf. Even if the 2015 has the Lizard battery, and it turns out to be successful in the heat, all that does is reduce negative word-of-mouth.

Finally, there is the price of gasoline. That is an ever-present wildcard which could open the floodgates at any time. I do not count out that possibility. The availability of PV solar limits the impact of rising electricity prices, at least for homeowners.

Absolutely, but with demand for gasoline in the US actually falling, I don't see a huge jump in gas prices in the next year or two. I suspect that gas will still be hovering around $3.50-$4/gallon for the next year or so. By the time the next generation Leaf arrives in 2017, gas could creep up to $5/gallon. Or something catastrophic could happen and it could be closer to $10/gallon. I suspect the former is much more likely.

[DaveinOlyWA]

We have had some previous discussion of LEAF sales versus Prius sales, but I thought it might be interesting to have a thread which compared this data directly. By nearly any metric, the Toyota Prius has been a big success, and thus it may be informative to compare relative LEAF sales.

Sales numbers are from Wikipedia for both the Prius and the LEAF.

Code: Select all

+------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius versus LEAF Worldwide Sales       |
|                    (in thousands)                    |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Prius | Prius | Prius | LEAF | LEAF  | LEAF  | LEAF/ |
| Year  | Sales | Cum.  | Year | Sales | Cum.  | Prius |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
|  1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 | 2010 |  0.05 | 0.05  |   16% |
|  1998 |  17.7 |  18.0 | 2011 |  22.0 |  22.1 |  123% |
|  1999 |  15.2 |  33.2 | 2012 |  27.0 |  49.1 |  148% |
|  2000 |  19.0 |  52.2 | 2013 |  47.7 |  96.8 |  184% |
|  2001 |  29.5 |  81.7 | 2014 |  50.0?|   147?|  180%?|
|  2002 |  28.1 |   110 | 2015 |       |       |       |
|  2003 |  43.2 |   153 | 2016 |       |       |       |
|  2004 | 125.7 |   279 | 2017 |       |       |       |
|  2005 | 175.2 |   454 | 2018 |       |       |       |
|  2006 | 185.6 |   640 | 2019 |       |       |       |
|  2007 | 281.3 |   921 | 2020 |       |       |       |
|  2008 | 285.7 |  1207 | 2021 |       |       |       |
|  2009 | 404.2 |  1611 | 2022 |       |       |       |
|  2010 |  >508 | >2119 | 2023 |       |       |       |
|  2011 |  >417 | >2536 | 2024 |       |       |       |
|  2012 |  >489 | >3025 | 2025 |       |       |       |
|  2013 |  >405 | >3430 | 2026 |       |       |       |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+

- The percentage of LEAF sales to Prius sale in the last column is cumulative.

coming in late to the discussion and sure this has already been mentioned but can't really start the Prius at 1997... to say it had worldwide distribution at that point is stretching it a bit

[DaveinOlyWA]

BEV owners have particular characteristics and the population of potential buyers is smaller, so you'd expect to see a faster initial take up, due to its particular niche characteristics, before levelling and saturating with those who actually want one.

No - you don't expect to see a faster initial take. Prius initially and Leaf (initially) appealed to very similar set of people.

agreed. being one of the first to get a Prius in my area, I can assure you in many ways, the Prius had a steeper hill to climb. it was really the first to be different. they had no one's shoulders to stand on. the LEAF is standing on the shoulders of hybrids because that is where the concept of electrical based transportation started

[GetOffYourGas]

agreed. being one of the first to get a Prius in my area, I can assure you in many ways, the Prius had a steeper hill to climb. it was really the first to be different. they had no one's shoulders to stand on. the LEAF is standing on the shoulders of hybrids because that is where the concept of electrical based transportation started

I agree with what you're saying, but I take issue with the way you worded it. Hybrids are not at all where the concept of modern electric transportation started. That honor should fall squarely on the EV1. GM then used that tech to develop a hybrid, to which Toyota responded with the Prius...

But in terms of mainstream acceptance of electrified transportation, you are correct.

</nitpick>

[DaveinOlyWA]

agreed. being one of the first to get a Prius in my area, I can assure you in many ways, the Prius had a steeper hill to climb. it was really the first to be different. they had no one's shoulders to stand on. the LEAF is standing on the shoulders of hybrids because that is where the concept of electrical based transportation started

I agree with what you're saying, but I take issue with the way you worded it. Hybrids are not at all where the concept of modern electric transportation started. That honor should fall squarely on the EV1. GM then used that tech to develop a hybrid, to which Toyota responded with the Prius...

But in terms of mainstream acceptance of electrified transportation, you are correct.

</nitpick>

different areas had different POVs. the EV 1 in my area was a COMPLETELY unknown entity that came to light with "Who Killed the Electric Car" so it was not a stepping stone for Prius acceptance. the fact that the car did drive on gas and was not really that much of a leap helped it get accepted faster (a spike in gas prices did not hurt either) but had too many people tell me i was crazy to pay $22,000 for a car when a Corolla was only $15,000. can't even begin to tell you how many people told me that. so you really can't understand what it was like unless you can tell me what a Corolla has in common with a Prius other than 4 wheels

**edit** just have to add this in. my 3 Priuses were all sales tax free along with my 2 LEAFs meaning in the last 10 years, the only two cars I have paid sales tax on were Corollas, a 2012 and 2000...

and people wonder why I do what I do...my answer?

WA State's 8.9% sales tax!