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JPWhite
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Tue May 16, 2017 12:07 pm

SageBrush wrote:I think you are misreading the Rogers model. The second stage has the greatest influence because the consumer base is much wider, not because each person in that level is more important. And more importantly, without a happy first level, the second level flounders.


The model defines the early adopters as have the greatest influence despite early majority and late majority being much larger segments of the market.

Size doesn't always matter :-)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations#Adopter_categories
--
JP White
http://jpwhitenissanleaf.com
Blue SL-e, Res 4/22/10, Ord 3/29/11, Del 7/30/11
109,000 Miles.
Lost 5 Capacity bars
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GRA
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Tue May 16, 2017 5:40 pm

I would say the innovators constituted the EV-1 or even the DIY EV conversion era, while the early adopters are the LEAF/Volt 1 people. Which group the Roadster falls in, I'm not sure. I think we're just at the point of 'crossing the chasm' to early majority now, but at the moment there's little incentive for mainstream customers to do so.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Marktm
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Tue May 16, 2017 5:43 pm

JPWhite wrote:
The model defines the early adopters as have the greatest influence despite early majority and late majority being much larger segments of the market.

Size doesn't always matter :-)





JP;

Like your blog. I'm a very late "adopter" (maybe too late to take on the title - but definitely an "advocate"). I've waited for an EV that would be on par with an inexpensive sub-compact (Versa typifies), that could go 75-100 miles, that would cost less than $15,000, new - did not happen. Being a renewables and off-grid junkie, when it became apparent that the cheapest Li tech (well managed) energy storage was a used Leaf - I bought one to "play" with for solar charging (and extraction at some point) - for much less than $15,000. It also met all my original criteria (and more) as it is still like new.

In the year and half of ownership, all my work buddies go to lunch in my Leaf and I send them the "good deals" on used ones. But the most satisfying part of my "advocacy" is that my 16 year old Grandson always asks for the keys to take it for a spin - and wants to show it off to his friends (definitely not because of the styling). His generation might well be users rather than adopters - for many good reasons.
2012 Leaf SL; 34,000 miles. 12 bars - Battery replaced November 1st, 2016.
4000 watts Grid-tied solar. 3000 watts (level II) off-grid solar Leaf charging capable.

SageBrush
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Tue May 16, 2017 6:30 pm

JPWhite wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I think you are misreading the Rogers model. The second stage has the greatest influence because the consumer base is much wider, not because each person in that level is more important. And more importantly, without a happy first level, the second level flounders.


The model defines the early adopters as have the greatest influence despite early majority and late majority being much larger segments of the market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations#Adopter_categories

I understand the notion that the early adopters are the communicators to the unwashed, mostly technically ignorant early and later majority. But realize that the model is describing a *successful* diffusion of a new technology. A disaffected 'innovator' group is not going to follow this diffusion path.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

tattoogunman
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 6:01 am

fotajoye wrote:Theories make for good discussion; however, theories aside, Nissan has truly made a poor decision here; There are 260,000 plus Leafs worldwide that have created at least that many buyers for a second battery pack. Seems to me Nissan would want their dealers to sell those packs and be able to charge a premium for a higher range. Surely Nissan stands to make money if they manage the process wisely. EVs are more similar to flashlights than ICE cars; you don't throw the light away when the battery goes bad, you replace the battery and keep on shining the light. In fact, there is little or no reason to sell your Leaf, if it will meet your needs...just keep buying batteries every few years and driving the car...no one says you should trade it in every 3 years except those in the business of selling cars. I have a 2000 Toyota Tacoma that cost $17,000 new and is still going nicely. All I do is change oil, add gas, buy a battery and brakes every five to six years and every year it gets cheaper to drive. Let see $17,000 divided by 18 is $944 for each year on the selling price. Next year that will be $17,000 divide by 19 or $895(ha)...

BTW, because there are so many companies starting to build batteries, I believe eventually there will be a healthy aftermarket battery pack business...too bad Tesla doesn't build them for a Leaf.


This has been my point when people talk about cost savings with an EV. In reality, the vast majority of modern vehicles require very little in the way of maintenance. What is required is *not* that costly. I have a 2012 Fiat 500 and at a very conservative average, I spend about $100 a year on maintenance and I spend around $500 a year in gas. If I were to get an EV, my insurance would go up enough that it would negate the cost savings in gasoline. I would get cost savings from the maintenance side of things, but that would probably be offset a bit electric costs.

What I would like to see is this - sell me a four door hatch cheap, a Leaf is nowhere near worth the asking price of over $30K. It's maybe a $20K hatchback, so sell it for $17K to $20K (BASE price - you want options, you pay for a higher end model). Then adopt the European model of allowing owners to lease the battery packs. You pick what battery pack you want (24kwh, 30, etc.) and then you make a monthly lease payment. If you want to swap it out down the road for a different pack, you can do that. This would help to get the costs of these cars down to where the average person can actually afford them and you don't have to worry about the battery because you can always swap it out for another one. For someone who REALLY wanted to buy the car outright , pack and all, you could do that as well - but these cars HAVE to be priced lower than what they are selling for now. Purely my opinion ;)

lorenfb
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 10:22 am

tattoogunman wrote:What I would like to see is this - sell me a four door hatch cheap, a Leaf is nowhere near worth the asking price of over $30K. It's maybe a $20K hatchback, so sell it for $17K to $20K (BASE price - you want options, you pay for a higher end model). Then adopt the European model of allowing owners to lease the battery packs. You pick what battery pack you want (24kwh, 30, etc.) and then you make a monthly lease payment. If you want to swap it out down the road for a different pack, you can do that. This would help to get the costs of these cars down to where the average person can actually afford them and you don't have to worry about the battery because you can always swap it out for another one. For someone who REALLY wanted to buy the car outright , pack and all, you could do that as well - but these cars HAVE to be priced lower than what they are selling for now. Purely my opinion ;)


OK, so you imply that EVs haven't been marketed optimally or you suggest that we (the government) or the automotive
OEMs subsidize your future transportation needs, right?

fotajoye
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 1:37 pm

[quoteOK, so you imply that EVs haven't been marketed optimally or you suggest that we (the government) or the automotive
OEMs subsidize your future transportation needs, right?][/quote]

The problem with legacy car makers, i.e., Nissan, GM, etc., is they are tied to a huge investment in Internal combustion engines with a dealer network that is based mostly on the repair business of fixing mechanical breakages. It is estimated each repair bay is worth a million dollars plus a year to a dealer....And, breakage and repair has been their way for a hundred years. What is occurring in this transition over to electric cars is the dealers and car makers are pricing in their costs of making that transition on the backs of the EV buyers...so, the Government kicks in subsides to assist them. You and I know a basic EV is really a pretty simple device...a battery, charger, motor,motor control and wheels,with little dependency on mechanical devices. In theory they should be cheap to build once the economics of scale kicks in. Sub $20,000 Leafs will someday be normal and except for replacing batteries, a future EV will last until you get tired of driving it.

Tesla has a decided advantage over GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler. They don't need bother with ICVs, or their mechanical failures. So, they build only EVs. There are analysts who believe the U.S. car makers are so wedded to the internal combustion engine and fossil fuels they won't make the transition to EVs without first going through bankruptcy and reorganizing.

tattoogunman
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 3:45 pm

lorenfb wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:What I would like to see is this - sell me a four door hatch cheap, a Leaf is nowhere near worth the asking price of over $30K. It's maybe a $20K hatchback, so sell it for $17K to $20K (BASE price - you want options, you pay for a higher end model). Then adopt the European model of allowing owners to lease the battery packs. You pick what battery pack you want (24kwh, 30, etc.) and then you make a monthly lease payment. If you want to swap it out down the road for a different pack, you can do that. This would help to get the costs of these cars down to where the average person can actually afford them and you don't have to worry about the battery because you can always swap it out for another one. For someone who REALLY wanted to buy the car outright , pack and all, you could do that as well - but these cars HAVE to be priced lower than what they are selling for now. Purely my opinion ;)


OK, so you imply that EVs haven't been marketed optimally or you suggest that we (the government) or the automotive
OEMs subsidize your future transportation needs, right?


Where did I say I expected the government to subsidize it? I already see people talking non-stop about one of the only reasons why they bought an EV in the first place was because of the federal and/or state tax credits - subsidies like those?

I'm saying these cars are overpriced and they need to be priced much better than they are now to become more marketable to the masses.

tattoogunman
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 3:51 pm

fotajoye wrote:[quoteOK, so you imply that EVs haven't been marketed optimally or you suggest that we (the government) or the automotive
OEMs subsidize your future transportation needs, right?]


The problem with legacy car makers, i.e., Nissan, GM, etc., is they are tied to a huge investment in Internal combustion engines with a dealer network that is based mostly on the repair business of fixing mechanical breakages. It is estimated each repair bay is worth a million dollars plus a year to a dealer....And, breakage and repair has been their way for a hundred years. What is occurring in this transition over to electric cars is the dealers and car makers are pricing in their costs of making that transition on the backs of the EV buyers...so, the Government kicks in subsides to assist them. You and I know a basic EV is really a pretty simple device...a battery, charger, motor,motor control and wheels,with little dependency on mechanical devices. In theory they should be cheap to build once the economics of scale kicks in. Sub $20,000 Leafs will someday be normal and except for replacing batteries, a future EV will last until you get tired of driving it.

Tesla has a decided advantage over GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler. They don't need bother with ICVs, or their mechanical failures. So, they build only EVs. There are analysts who believe the U.S. car makers are so wedded to the internal combustion engine and fossil fuels they won't make the transition to EVs without first going through bankruptcy and reorganizing.[/quote]

I think there are going to have to be growing pains and they are going to hurt. If this technology starts taking off, they are going to have to adapt and this may also mean that the traditional dealer structure changes with it. It's not just dealers, imagine all of the independent auto repair shops out there - what do they do when people stop coming in for oil changes and small repairs like belt replacements, spark plugs, mufflers, etc.? The companies that make oil filters, oil pumps, belts, transmissions, etc.? It's happened before when a new technology has come along and made the earlier version obsolete - think of horses before the car came along. It will be a painful change for some, but hopefully within a generation or so it becomes the norm. People will need to adapt or be phased out - happens all the time. This is all assuming that EV tech becomes the standard of course ;)

lorenfb
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Re: Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 10:00 pm

fotajoye wrote:The problem with legacy car makers, i.e., Nissan, GM, etc., is they are tied to a huge investment in Internal combustion engines with a dealer network that is based mostly on the repair business of fixing mechanical breakages. It is estimated each repair bay is worth a million dollars plus a year to a dealer....And, breakage and repair has been their way for a hundred years. What is occurring in this transition over to electric cars is the dealers and car makers are pricing in their costs of making that transition on the backs of the EV buyers...so, the Government kicks in subsides to assist them.


A pricing conspiracy among the ICEV manufacturers and their inability to lose money like Tesla does making BEVs is
the basis for their present position in the BEV market, right?

fotajoye wrote:You and I know a basic EV is really a pretty simple device...a battery, charger, motor,motor control and wheels,with little dependency on mechanical devices. In theory they should be cheap to build once the economics of scale kicks in.


Have you overlooked the most costly component in an BEV, i.e. the battery which presently significantly limits the BEV's
penetration in the sub-$35K market. With the battery costs presently at around $180 - $200 per kWh, the battery costs
more than a 1600cc ICE for a sub-compact with +40 mpg and a resale price around $20K. Most consumers "yawn" when
asked about considering a BEV purchase.

fotajoye wrote:Sub $20,000 Leafs will someday be normal and except for replacing batteries, a future EV will last until you get tired of driving it.


That "someday" is really doubtful.

fotajoye wrote:Tesla has a decided advantage over GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler. They don't need bother with ICVs, or their mechanical failures. So, they build only EVs. There are analysts who believe the U.S. car makers are so wedded to the internal combustion engine and fossil fuels they won't make the transition to EVs without first going through bankruptcy and reorganizing.


Oh please! Tesla's technology is basic off-the-shelf technology accessible to all ICEV OEMs. The only real advantage for
Tesla is its SC network. Given Tesla's present financial trajectory, Tesla is more likely to enter bankruptcy than any
ICEV OEM.

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