GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:
BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs
Sure are, but then cars that start at $75k or so are well above 'semi-affordable' or 'affordable' as defined, and anyone who can buy a new car costing that much doesn't have to be concerned with getting the most transportation value from their dollar. BTW, if my purpose had been to pad PHEV % I'd have set the definition of 'semi-affordable' at $45k, as that would have included the i3/i3REx, and the REx has been outselling the BEV by 2.5 or 3:1 in the U.S.
As it is, the ratio of semi-affordable and affordable BEVs to PHEVs has been creeping up for the past several months (except for this past one in the 'affordable' category, due primarily to the removal of the e-Golf, but also the Prime's decent sales), and once the Model 3 and 2018 LEAF arrive in numbers I expect that BEVs will move into the majority in at least the 'semi-affordable' category, and maybe both. Whether they can hold the lead once the fed. credits start running out remains to be seen, and that's going to impact Tesla, GM and Nissan at some point in the next 12-18 months. Barring a sustained increase in the price of gas, I suspect most people who have to worry about value for money will opt for PHEVs for some time after that, until BEV prices reach (unsubsidized) parity with ICEs and the charging infrastructure for road trips is in place.
Several years back I wrote that I thought the point at which mainstream car buyers would start to consider BEVs would be 150 miles AER & $30k MSRP, but that was predicated on gas remaining at $3.50/gal. or higher as it was at that time, while the national average is currently $2.485, and fifteen or twenty cents of that is due to hurricane disruptions. I have my doubts that $30k/150 miles will be enough under current conditions, but we'll find out next year. California's $0.12/gal. gas tax hike will kick in Nov. 1st so that should help BEVs a bit, as our current avg. price/gal. is about $3.06. At least this year we'll finally cross the 1% PEV annual sales threshold.