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RegGuheert
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Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:45 am

GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
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Posts: 12073
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
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Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:13 am

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.


interesting how Tesla sales spike every 3 months...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 24,261.3 miles.363 GIDAhr 80.66Hx95.95%kwh28.1QCs205,L2's 226
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 7363
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:45 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.

Sure are, but then cars that start at $75k or so are well above 'semi-affordable' or 'affordable' as defined, and anyone who can buy a new car costing that much doesn't have to be concerned with getting the most transportation value from their dollar. BTW, if my purpose had been to pad PHEV % I'd have set the definition of 'semi-affordable' at $45k, as that would have included the i3/i3REx, and the REx has been outselling the BEV by 2.5 or 3:1 in the U.S.

As it is, the ratio of semi-affordable and affordable BEVs to PHEVs has been creeping up for the past several months (except for this past one in the 'affordable' category, due primarily to the removal of the e-Golf, but also the Prime's decent sales), and once the Model 3 and 2018 LEAF arrive in numbers I expect that BEVs will move into the majority in at least the 'semi-affordable' category, and maybe both. Whether they can hold the lead once the fed. credits start running out remains to be seen, and that's going to impact Tesla, GM and Nissan at some point in the next 12-18 months. Barring a sustained increase in the price of gas, I suspect most people who have to worry about value for money will opt for PHEVs for some time after that, until BEV prices reach (unsubsidized) parity with ICEs and the charging infrastructure for road trips is in place.

Several years back I wrote that I thought the point at which mainstream car buyers would start to consider BEVs would be 150 miles AER & $30k MSRP, but that was predicated on gas remaining at $3.50/gal. or higher as it was at that time, while the national average is currently $2.485, and fifteen or twenty cents of that is due to hurricane disruptions. I have my doubts that $30k/150 miles will be enough under current conditions, but we'll find out next year. California's $0.12/gal. gas tax hike will kick in Nov. 1st so that should help BEVs a bit, as our current avg. price/gal. is about $3.06. At least this year we'll finally cross the 1% PEV annual sales threshold.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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