GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:35 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Isn’t this rather arbitrary and pointless.

It's somewhat arbitrary, but not pointless. If PEVs are to become mass market, they must have mass market prices. The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. is currently about $36k. $40k was chosen way back when as both the LEAF and Volt had MSRPs below $40k. I personally consider $30k base MSRP as a better measure of the mass market, but given the dearth of PEVs available for that price at the time I chose the higher number, adding the lower price categories as cars became available in those price ranges. I'm still waiting for the first $20k PEV.

Zythryn wrote:This is only 33% of the EV market.

As such, it doesn’t give a very clear look at the EV market share as a whole.

Nor is it intended to. What the EV market as a whole shows is that PEVs generally, and BEVs specifically, are still in the early adopter phase of well-off people buying expensive toys because they can afford to. Until such time as affordable PEVs outsell luxury models, we won't have crossed the chasm to mass market appeal.

Interesting thesis, but isn’t the whole point to track how the EV market is changing as a whole?

Not in this thread. See below.

Zythryn wrote:The term “mass market” is also very arbitrary, and your use of the term “toy” comes across as derogatory.

Mass market implies that the average new car buyer can afford it. Think Camry/Accord/Civic/Corolla prices. "Toy" can be derogatory, but in this case it merely emphasizes that people who can afford Teslas and similarly-priced cars aren't making purchase decisions based primarily on the best auto transportation value for their dollar, but on other non-essential factors (for transportation; image/status/performance/environment etc. may be essential from a personal choice point of view, but not from a transportation point of view).

Zythryn wrote:New technology starts as generally, more expensive. Conclusions about the EV market made based on a minority of the market while ignoring the majority of it, are rather pointless.

What matters is the total EV units sold as a fraction of total cars sold.

Which is being tracked elsewhere, by me among many others. This topic is deliberately more limited. If you find it pointless, you can happily ignore it and go on with your life without wasting your time reading it, and those of us who think it's anything but pointless will continue to follow it, because we think it's a critical metric. The % of PEVs sold is also important, but as any major increase in that requires lower-priced vehicles that most people can afford, it is inextricably entwined with mass market-prices. To repeat a point made upthread, supposedly the size of the potential market for a car doubles (or halves) for every $5k decrease (increase) in MSRP. Obviously that's a general number, and $5k matters a lot more at the lower end of the price range than it does at the top, but it's still valuable. The size of the potential market for a $49k car will always be less than for a $40k, $30k, $25k or $20k car, regardless of how big the actual market for that car is at any one time due to other factors.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9401
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:45 pm

September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]. The immediately preceding month's sales totals and percentages are in ( ) immediately following the current month's numbers:

BEV 3,474 (2,891), 30.4% (29.3%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 7,966 (6,973), 70.7% (%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 11,440 (9,864). BEV/PHEV % +/- 1.1% (-/+ 1.4%).

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k:

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime 2,213 (2,071); Volt 2,129* (1,825*); Clarity 2,028 (1,495).
BEV: LEAF 1,563 (1,315); Bolt 1,549 (1,225*).

Entries followed by an asterisk are estimates of monthly production as GM only reports every quarter now. Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The Volt holds 2nd place over the Clarity PHEV. Sales of some semi-affordable BEVs, including the 500e, Soul EV and FFE dropped sharply; among PHEVs the Ioniq, Optima and Sonata all decreased considerably, some more 50%.


September's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV: 1,677 (1,451) 39.7% (37.6%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV: 2,549 (2,410), 60.3% (62.4%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ioniq PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 4,226 (3,861). +/- of 2.1% (+/- or 1.8%) for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

BEV: LEAF@ 1,563 (1,315).
PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,213 (2,071).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

September's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV: 98 (108), 89.9% (71.5%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV: 11 (43), 10.1% (28.5%): (1 type, IONIQ PHEV).

Ionic PHEV sales continue to tank, probably due to the Niro.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

tattoogunman
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:39 pm

I think part of those numbers reflect availability. The Bolt is supposedly relatively difficult to find and other cars like the Ioniq EV/PHEV are also equally difficult to find and/or are only being sold in certain states (California, Oregon, etc.) whereas the Leaf seems to be more available. The dealership that I bought my 2015 from yesterday got in 26 new Leafs within the last month and they're down to only 6. Granted, they said most of those sales were to previous Leaf owners, but still. They said that they are seeing something like a 50/50 breakdown in their customers - 50% were returning Leaf owners trading in or surrendering their lease for the new model and the other 50% were completely new to EVs.

For what it's worth.

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