GRA
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Re: Why is the Bolt pulling away from the Volt?

Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:52 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Bolt is outselling the Volt.

BEV is better than a PHEV.

With deep analysis like that, shouldn't you be working for the current presidential administration? :lol:


If you got nothing to say but an insult, you got nothing to say.

I said quite a lot more before that, and you came back with a meaningless throwaway line, so I figured I'd have some fun.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

gmcjetpilot
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:54 pm

I did not read all post in this monster thread, but to the question (if it is true) the Nissan Leaf is PURE EV... which has advantages of simplicity, no transmission (well single speed planetary). It has NO engine, oil, filter, transmission... etc. That is why.

The VOLT (serial plug-in hybrid) is actually like the Prius (parallel plug-in hybrid)... has clear advantage over the LEAF, i.e., RANGE... However they are complex and still have the care and feeding of a regular car.

Market rules. For me I can't afford (practically and fiscally responsibly) a new Tesla. To me the LEAF is the poor man's Tesla. Do I need more range. 2 or 3 times a year I need to do +80 miles round trip to a neighboring town (a few towns over).... The LEAF at least mine is pushed to do that on single charge. There is free charging (if the spot is open???) at a hotel in that small town. Assuming I can plug in, I can have lunch while I give it a hour charge, to give me the buffer I get home easily. So even if I had 150 or 200 mile range I wound not use it that much. I still have my Diesel VW TDI JSW.... I keep it for that reason, to go cross country (I mean 700 miles on one tank at 50 mpg).

Sadly figuring out how fast my battery is going, cost to replace the battery, my EV is going to cost me twice what the fuel bill would be for my VW TDI (not including the oil changes, but I do that myself). I have dipped my toes in the EV pool. I see it and like it, but I am not giving up on my ICE Diesel. If I had to pick ONE for the rest of my life... IT WOULD NOT BE A PURE EV.... It does not work 100%. However I often thought IF I DID GO 100% EV... for the times I need to go further I have my BMW motorcycle or I can RENT A CAR...

GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:01 pm

gmcjetpilot wrote:I did not read all post in this monster thread, but to the question (if it is true) the Nissan Leaf is PURE EV... which has advantages of simplicity, no transmission (well single speed planetary). It has NO engine, oil, filter, transmission... etc. That is why <snip rest>.

As it happens, it's not true (it was at the time the thread was started), rather the reverse, although the thread has long since shifted to a comparison of 'semi-affordable' (defined as sub-$40k MSRP) BEVs and PHEVs. The ratio will likely shift back in favor of BEVs with the introduction of the short-range Model 3 and (maybe) the LEAF 2, unless and until someone introduces an affordable, desirable AWD PHEV CUV - many of us think the Outlander PHEV isn't it, but we'll see.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:00 am

GRA wrote:
gmcjetpilot wrote:I did not read all post in this monster thread, but to the question (if it is true) the Nissan Leaf is PURE EV... which has advantages of simplicity, no transmission (well single speed planetary). It has NO engine, oil, filter, transmission... etc. That is why <snip rest>.
As it happens, it's not true (it was at the time the thread was started), rather the reverse, although the thread has long since shifted to a comparison of 'semi-affordable' (defined as sub-$40k MSRP) BEVs and PHEVs. The ratio will likely shift back in favor of BEVs with the introduction of the short-range Model 3 and (maybe) the LEAF 2, unless and until someone introduces an affordable, desirable AWD PHEV CUV - many of us think the Outlander PHEV isn't it, but we'll see.
It's not true in the U.S. for the Nissan LEAF (which hasn't yet had a refresh) versus the Chevy Volt (which was refreshed 2 years ago) in 2017. Full stop. (And, yes, that was the original premise of this thread. I will update the plot in the OP when I have a chance.)

But the simple fact is that in the U.S. BEV sales edged out PHEV sales by 102,000 versus 98,000 in 2017. Worldwide, the dominance of BEVs over PHEVs is clear: for every PHEV sold in 2017, nearly 2 BEVs were sold.

There are some interesting facts found in the 2017 worldwide PEV sales numbers:

- Global PEV sales grew by 58% in 2017 over 2016! That is a MUCH higher growth rate than we experienced in the U.S.
- 2017 PEV sales were over 1.2 million units.
- Global PEV sales in 2017 topped 1% of the overall market.
- The Chinese BAIC EC-Series BEV sedan was the global PEV sales leader, beating the Tesla Model-S by over 23,000 units.
- Globally, the Nissan LEAF outsold the Chevy Volt/Ampera in 2017 47,195 to 26,291.
- While the Toyota Prius Prime PHEV only took the third spot globally in 2017, it is well-positioned to win the top spot in PEV sales in 2018.

Another interesting picture arises when you look at global sales by PEV sales groups:

- The Nissan/Renault alliance is the global PEV sales leader by a small margin.
- Three Chinese groups take the next three positions globally: BYD Group, BAIC Group, and Geely Group.
- Tesla takes fifth place in PEV sales when compared with these global alliances (perhaps not a fair comparison).
- GM is seventh globally in PEV sales.
- Toyota is a one-trick pony taking tenth place globally in PEV sales. From the article:
EV-Sales wrote:Caught on the Fuel Cell delusion, Toyota efectivelly lost the upper-hand it had for years with the hybrid game, and only now is trying to get in the next generation (PEV) game.

2018 will proved to be a massive growth year for BEVs, but I'm not yet willing to count out PHEVs. What BEVs achieve in terms of successful single-model sales, PHEVs make up in terms of add-on sales of PHEVs to popular models. Plus the Toyota Prius Prime will sell very well this year.

Overall, it is very encouraging to see the rapid growth in both BEVs and PHEVs!
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:09 am

I have updated the image in the OP with a new version that goes through January 2018, reproduced here:

Image

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that December 2017 will be the all-time-low point for this ratio. That month, the Chevy Volt outsold the Nissan LEAF in the US by a factor of 19:1!!

I will also predict that in 2018 we will again see sales of the Nissan LEAF pulling away from the Volt in the US. This time I expect it will be for good!
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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jlv
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:56 am

Of course it might be more interesting at this point to compare sales of the LEAF to the Bolt.
'13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17) 32K miTesla S 75D (3/17) 22K mi
Model 3 reservation (invited to order 1/18)

LKK
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:31 am

I've got a feeling the Volt will be gone by 2020, but GM may have to use the Voltec hybrid technology in its mainstream vehicles to meet CAFE requirements. My suggestion, drop this Leaf vs Volt discussion, it's time to move on.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:38 pm

jlv wrote:Of course it might be more interesting at this point to compare sales of the LEAF to the Bolt.
It's a good idea, but after years of this one going south and having GRA try to explain that all of the high sales of Tesla BEVs don't count because they are actually "unaffordable" and that BEVs aren't REALLY outselling PHEVs, I'm going to ride this one out 'til the bitter end (of the Volt, if not longer).

That might be a good topic for a new thread.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:47 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
jlv wrote:Of course it might be more interesting at this point to compare sales of the LEAF to the Bolt.
It's a good idea, but after years of this one going south and having GRA try to explain that all of the high sales of Tesla BEVs don't count because they are actually "unaffordable" and that BEVs aren't REALLY outselling PHEVs, I'm going to ride this one out 'til the bitter end (of the Volt, if not longer).

That might be a good topic for a new thread.

No, Tesla sales proved that BEVs needed to be expensive to be desirable by people other than the usual suspects, as they were the only BEVs that could sell in reasonable numbers without subsidies. The important thing will be when semi-affordable BEVs can do so - we await the chance for the (sub-$40k) Model 3 or LEAF 2 to prove that they can.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DeeAgeaux
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:31 pm

RegGuheert wrote:

- While the Toyota Prius Prime PHEV only took the third spot globally in 2017, it is well-positioned to win the top spot in PEV sales in 2018.



There is 0% chance Prius Prime outsells Model 3 in 2018. Yes, even Globally.

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