lorenfb
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:18 pm

Zythryn wrote:I don't see the Model 3 taking sales away from GM or Nissan for the rest of this year, if then.
The market is growing and Tesla, GM and Nissan are responsible for that growth. I see demand of all three continuing to grow as each gets productio, marketing and delivery up to speed.


Thank you for your alternate perspective.
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SageBrush
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:18 pm

dhanson865 wrote:I'd expect Model 3 availability to dampen demand on everything else on that scoreboard that isn't a Tesla.

Yep, and Tesla is ramping up.
In another quarter or so Model 3 monthly sales will lap all non-teslas *combined*.

As for the LEAF, it is pretty much relegated to the bottom of the barrel now that most of the die-hards have their cars. Sales will pick up if Nissan heavily discounts the car. This is not an enviable position for Nissan to be in but such is the life of a compliance EV in the US. I hope for better days when the battery is improved with a TMS next generation, but they still need to get out of the orbit of Tesla prices.
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dhanson865
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:45 pm

Zythryn wrote:
dhanson865 wrote:...
Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

I'd expect Model 3 availability to dampen demand on everything else on that scoreboard that isn't a Tesla.

...

Finally?
Per the chart you posted, the Model 3 has topped the insideevs scoreboard the last three months.
It is very nice to see production start to improve.

That said, I don't see the Model 3 taking sales away from GM or Nissan for the rest of this year, if then.
The market is growing and Tesla, GM and Nissan are responsible for that growth. I see demand of all three continuing to grow as each gets productio, marketing and delivery up to speed.


See if this puts the "finally" into perspective:

Image

Volt sold almost twice as many as Leaf in 2017 US. Model 3 wasn't really on the list even, I had to cut and past to get it in focus vs the top group.

We had a long time at very low numbers, December and January would be nice in a vacuum compared to prior, but no one expected the numbers to be that flat before hand. And while it did Top the charts from Jan 2018 on, This week was the first quarterly production statement that detailed it in the lead. Prior to that it was unofficial to a certain extent.

Nov 2017 - 345
Dec 2017 - 1060
Jan 2018 - 1875
Feb 2018 - 2485
Mar 2018 - 3820

Imagine april at 6000+ and then maybe a drop as they move inventory to Canada in may and june (with some portion going to US customers as well but only up to the 200,000 cars mark)
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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:46 pm

SageBrush wrote:Yep, and Tesla is ramping up.
In another quarter or so Model 3 monthly sales will lap all non-teslas *combined*.
Perhaps in the US.

Globally, the Tesla Model 3 is way behind and losing ground fast so far this year. At the end of March, the Tesla Model 3 has sold about 8,000 copies in 2018. The Nissan LEAF, OTOH, has sold approximately 19,000 copies. If we assume Nissan averages 11,000 copies during each of the next three months, Tesla will need to produce and sell 44,000 Model 3s in 13 weeks or about 3,400 Model 3s each month. Since they are below about 1500 cars/week right now, even a linear ramp to 5,000 cars/week at the end of June will not get them there.

And that's just ONE competitive product and there is very little guarantee that Tesla can achieve such a ramp.

I do believe that the Model 3 can move up from 10th place to third place by the end of the second quarter of 2018.
RegGuheert
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Zythryn
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:03 pm

dhanson865 wrote:
Zythryn wrote:
dhanson865 wrote:...
Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

...

Finally?
Per the chart you posted, the Model 3 has topped the insideevs scoreboard the last three months.


See if this puts the "finally" into perspective:

Image

Volt sold almost twice as many as Leaf in 2017 US. Model 3 wasn't really on the list even, I had to cut and past to get it in focus vs the top group.

...


Thank you. A different context of course gives a different story.
With the chart you posted, the comment of "finally" seemed very odd.

With the different chart you posted in your reply and the change of context from the first 3 months of this year to all of last year, your comment makes more sense.
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lorenfb
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:05 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Yep, and Tesla is ramping up.
In another quarter or so Model 3 monthly sales will lap all non-teslas *combined*.
Perhaps in the US.

Globally, the Tesla Model 3 is way behind and losing ground fast so far this year. At the end of March, the Tesla Model 3 has sold about 8,000 copies in 2018. The Nissan LEAF, OTOH, has sold approximately 19,000 copies. If we assume Nissan averages 11,000 copies during each of the next three months, Tesla will need to produce and sell 44,000 Model 3s in 13 weeks or about 3,400 Model 3s each month. Since they are below about 1500 cars/week right now, even a linear ramp to 5,000 cars/week at the end of June will not get them there.

And that's just ONE competitive product and there is very little guarantee that Tesla can achieve such a ramp.

I do believe that the Model 3 can move up from 10th place to third place by the end of the second quarter of 2018.


Given that the implication is that Tesla has just now demonstrated BEV dominance into perpetuity, we need to acquiesce to the
fact that the U.S. and foreign OEM automotive companies are "done" in the U.S. with BEV products, right? Hardly!
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dhanson865
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:17 pm

Zythryn wrote:Thank you. A different context of course gives a different story.
With the chart you posted, the comment of "finally" seemed very odd.

With the different chart you posted in your reply and the change of context from the first 3 months of this year to all of last year, your comment makes more sense.


Sorry, I assumed everyone kind of knew the build up, I jumped straight to the punchline to avoid making a boring post.

The math is elsewhere but here is one more semi-related punchline

Tesla Q1 was 17,980 US deliveries, leaving ~20,445 US deliveries in Q2 to not trigger the phaseout (send any excess to Canada until July 1 2018).

To bring that into context a little consider that focusing on Canada for part of May/June might give Chevy/Nissan a little reprieve on the US sales list.

But come July 1st the gates fly open and they produce/ship everything they can to US customers before the tax credit phaseout hits phase 2 (half credit), phase 3 (quarter credit), phase 4 (no credit). As I believe we are on track to hit scenario 2 in the image below.

Image
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GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:14 pm

March's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,228 (Feb 3,185), 34.6% (Feb 34.5%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 7,992 (Feb 6,053), 65.4% (Feb 65.5%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ionic PHEV)
Total 12,220 (Feb 9,117). BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 0.1%.

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k., with the preceding month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,922 (2,050); Volt 1,782 (983); Clarity 1,061 (881).
BEV: Bolt @ 1,774 (1,424); LEAF 1,500 (895).

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

March's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,800 (1,061), 34.1% (28.9%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 3,472 (2,616), 65.9% (71.1%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ionic PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 5,272 (3,503). Increase/decrease of 5.2% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively, owing to the arrival of the 2018 LEAF and my counting all LEAFs sold from Feb. on as 2018s.

Best sellers:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,922 (2,050).
BEV, LEAF @ 1,500 (895).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

March's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 103 (90), 63.2% (33.6%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 60 (178), 36.8% (66.4%): (1 type, Ionic PHEV).

Total 163 (268). BEV/PHEV increase/decrease of 29.6%. Not sure what lead to the near inversion of the sales ratio from last month; maybe Hyundai's still having trouble stocking the Ionic PHEV.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:32 pm

The thread that never dies, LOL.
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:10 am

dhanson865 wrote:Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

I don't know about them having a hard time selling the Volt, and I certainly don't think they are worried about the LEAF as competition. At work we have over 80 people with plug-ins of one form or another. PHEVs count for about half of those - lots of Volts, but this year people have already bought 3 Ioniqs and 2 Claritys. I've asked people why they bought the car and it's almost always something like "I want to commute on electric, but also be able to use the car for trips and never, ever, worry about range". We have over a dozen people with reservations on the 3, but PHEVs are still alluring to the first-time EV buyer.
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