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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:45 am

GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13267
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
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Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:13 am

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.


interesting how Tesla sales spike every 3 months...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 9370
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:45 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.

Sure are, but then cars that start at $75k or so are well above 'semi-affordable' or 'affordable' as defined, and anyone who can buy a new car costing that much doesn't have to be concerned with getting the most transportation value from their dollar. BTW, if my purpose had been to pad PHEV % I'd have set the definition of 'semi-affordable' at $45k, as that would have included the i3/i3REx, and the REx has been outselling the BEV by 2.5 or 3:1 in the U.S.

As it is, the ratio of semi-affordable and affordable BEVs to PHEVs has been creeping up for the past several months (except for this past one in the 'affordable' category, due primarily to the removal of the e-Golf, but also the Prime's decent sales), and once the Model 3 and 2018 LEAF arrive in numbers I expect that BEVs will move into the majority in at least the 'semi-affordable' category, and maybe both. Whether they can hold the lead once the fed. credits start running out remains to be seen, and that's going to impact Tesla, GM and Nissan at some point in the next 12-18 months. Barring a sustained increase in the price of gas, I suspect most people who have to worry about value for money will opt for PHEVs for some time after that, until BEV prices reach (unsubsidized) parity with ICEs and the charging infrastructure for road trips is in place.

Several years back I wrote that I thought the point at which mainstream car buyers would start to consider BEVs would be 150 miles AER & $30k MSRP, but that was predicated on gas remaining at $3.50/gal. or higher as it was at that time, while the national average is currently $2.485, and fifteen or twenty cents of that is due to hurricane disruptions. I have my doubts that $30k/150 miles will be enough under current conditions, but we'll find out next year. California's $0.12/gal. gas tax hike will kick in Nov. 1st so that should help BEVs a bit, as our current avg. price/gal. is about $3.06. At least this year we'll finally cross the 1% PEV annual sales threshold.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:41 pm

October's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable* sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,967, 45.1% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,834, 54.9% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 8,801.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down by over 1,426 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3%, the first time that's happened for several months. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,781, but it couldn't compensate for the near ending of 1st gen. LEAF sales, which fell to only 213 (down from 1,055). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,626 (down from 1,899), Volt 1,362 (down from 1,453). 500e sales continued to decrease to 310 (from 375), but the e-Golf showed a slight increase to 203 (from 187), the FFE does its usual 100+ (115 vice 131) and the Soul EV dropped a bit more to 210 (from 255). Ionic BEV sales slid a bit more to 28 (from 36), and the Clarity BEV moved only 34 (down from 52).

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 569 (683) to 741 (763), The A-3 e-tron steepened its drop, from 85 to 17 apparently due to complete lack of inventory, the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both up slightly at 210 (190) and 235 (228) respectively, and bringing up the rear, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 74, down slightly from 80 last month.

October's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 216, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,195, 91.0% or 85.6% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,411. Increase/decrease of 0.3% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Oh, as RegGuheert has frequently accused me of trying to bias the % of affordable PHEVs/BEVs towards PHEVs by setting an upper limit of $40k base MSRP, it appears that Green Car Reports is similarly biased. In a poll of which manufacturer their twitter followers think will be the first to offer an affordable BEV CUV, they write:
First, by "mass-priced" we mean under $40,000 including the mandatory destination charge. (The 238-mile Chevy Bolt EV, at $37,500 for its base model, is a good example of a car close to the upper bound of that requirement.)
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113670_which-maker-will-sell-the-first-affordable-awd-electric-suv-take-our-twitter-poll

As I didn't include the destination charge, I allow somewhat higher-priced cars in the "semi-affordable" (what they call "mass-priced") category - perhaps $1k more. It wouldn't bother me to change to the even more restrictive usage, but as I've been doing it this way so long and the difference isn't all that significant, I might as well continue.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13267
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:19 am

GRA wrote:October's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable* sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,967, 45.1% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,834, 54.9% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 8,801.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down by over 1,426 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3%, the first time that's happened for several months. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,781 it couldn't compensate for the near ending of 1st gen. LEAF sales, which fell to only 213 (down from 1,055). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,626 (down from 1,899), Volt 1,362 (down from 1,453). 500e sales continued decrease to 310 (from 375), but the e-Golf showed a slight increase to 203 (from 187), the FFE does its usual 100+ (115 vice 131) and the Soul EV dropped a bit more to 210 (from 255). Ionic BEV sales slid a bit more to 28 (from 36), and the Clarity BEV moved only 34 (down from 52).

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 569 (683) to 741 (763), The A-3 e-tron steepened its drop, from 85 to 17 apparently due to complete lack of inventory, the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both up slightly at 210 (190) and 235 (228) respectively, and bringing up the rear, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 74, down slightly from 80 last month.

October's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 216* or 434, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,195, 91.0% or 85.6% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,411. Increase/decrease of 0.3% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

*NOTE: the Clarity Electric is only available for lease, at $269/month. This would probably put it in with the sub-$40k but not the sub-$30k group.

Oh, as RegGuheert has frequently accused me of trying to bias the % of affordable PHEVs/BEVs towards PHEVs by setting an upper limit of $40k base MSRP, it appears that Green Car Reports is similarly biased. In a poll of which manufacturer their twitter followers think will be the first to offer an affordable BEV CUV, they write:
First, by "mass-priced" we mean under $40,000 including the mandatory destination charge. (The 238-mile Chevy Bolt EV, at $37,500 for its base model, is a good example of a car close to the upper bound of that requirement.)
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113670_which-maker-will-sell-the-first-affordable-awd-electric-suv-take-our-twitter-poll

As I didn't include the destination charge, I allow somewhat higher-priced cars in the "semi-affordable" (what they call "mass-priced") category - perhaps $1k more. It wouldn't bother me to change to the even more restrictive usage, but as I've been doing it this way so long and the difference isn't all that significant, I might as well continue.


None of this surprises me

What continues to surprise me is Nissan waiting till 2018 before launching in US. Every day they are losing sales to the Bolt...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 9370
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:28 pm

November's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,551, 46.3% (10 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED, Spark EV).
PHEV, 5,277, 53.7% (9 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV; Clarity PHEV)
Total 9,828.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were up by 1,027 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 1.2%. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,987, but 1st gen. LEAF sales continued to fall towards nothing with 175 (down from 213). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,834 (up from 1,626), Volt 1,702 (up from 1,362). 500e sales continued their decrease to 275 (from 310), but the e-Golf bounced back a bit to 289 (from 203), the FFE does its usual 100+ (121 vice 115) and the Soul EV dropped a slight bit more to 207 (from 210). Ionic BEV sales slid yet more to 23 (from 28), but the Clarity BEV showed a huge jump to 459 (from 34), for reasons unknown, the Smart ED moved 68, and someone found 7 Spark EVs to sell.

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 523 (569) to 731 (741), The A-3 e-tron rebounded slightly perhaps due to 2018s beginning to arrive, to 38 (from 17), the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both down at 135 (210) and 213 (235) respectively, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 96 (from 56), and the just barely arrived Clarity PHEV managed to get 5 out the door.

November's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 219, 8.5% (4 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED, Spark EV)
PHEV, 2,357, 91.5% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,576. Decrease/increase of 0.5% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9370
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:43 pm

December's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 5,111, 41.1% (10 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED, Spark EV).
PHEV, 7,336, 58.9% (10 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV; Clarity PHEV; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV)
Total 12,447.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were up by 2,819 M-o-M, representing the usual end of year spike plus maybe worries about the tax credits being gone, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 5.2%. The Bolt exceeded 3k for the first time, setting a new high of 3,227, but 1st gen. LEAF sales continued to fall towards nothing with 102 (down from 175). The Bolt was followed by the Prime which exceeded 2k for the first time at 2,420 (up from 1,834), Volt 1,937 (up from 1,702). 500e sales saw an uptick to 385 (from 275), the e-Golf saw a modest increase to 343 (from 289), the FFE does its usual 100+ (113 vice 121) and the Soul EV was almost unchanged at 204 (from 207). Ionic BEV sales more than tripled to 79 (from 23), the Clarity BEV increased a bit to 527 (from 459), the Smart ED almost doubled sales to 129 (from 68), and someone found 2 Spark EVs to sell.

The out of production C-Max Energi continued to sell remaining inventory and moved 463 (from 523), while the Fusion Energi was up to 875 (from 731), The 2018 A-3 e-tron is now here an sales were up sharply at 270 (from 38), the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins split, with the Sonata up at 195 (135) while the Optima was down about 1/3rd to 134 (213), the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV was down a bit to 72 (from 96), the Clarity PHEV in its first full month sold 898 (5), and the Outlander PHEV sold 99 in its first month.

December's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 323, 10.1% (4 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED, Spark EV)
PHEV, 2,856, 89.9% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 3,179 (2,576). Increase/decrease of 1.7% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 2345
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Why is the Bolt pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:49 pm

Bolt is outselling the Volt.

BEV is better than a PHEV.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

GRA
Posts: 9370
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the Bolt pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:45 pm

WetEV wrote:Bolt is outselling the Volt.

BEV is better than a PHEV.

With deep analysis like that, shouldn't you be working for the current presidential administration? :lol:
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 2345
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Why is the Bolt pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:09 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Bolt is outselling the Volt.

BEV is better than a PHEV.

With deep analysis like that, shouldn't you be working for the current presidential administration? :lol:


If you got nothing to say but an insult, you got nothing to say.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

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