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RegGuheert
Posts: 5612
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
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Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:45 am

GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12310
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:13 am

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.


interesting how Tesla sales spike every 3 months...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:45 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,846, 47.4% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 5,381, 52.6% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 10,227.
Of course, when you include the 8,000 BEVs sold by Tesla, you realize that 2.4X as many BEVs were sold in September as were PHEVs.

Sure are, but then cars that start at $75k or so are well above 'semi-affordable' or 'affordable' as defined, and anyone who can buy a new car costing that much doesn't have to be concerned with getting the most transportation value from their dollar. BTW, if my purpose had been to pad PHEV % I'd have set the definition of 'semi-affordable' at $45k, as that would have included the i3/i3REx, and the REx has been outselling the BEV by 2.5 or 3:1 in the U.S.

As it is, the ratio of semi-affordable and affordable BEVs to PHEVs has been creeping up for the past several months (except for this past one in the 'affordable' category, due primarily to the removal of the e-Golf, but also the Prime's decent sales), and once the Model 3 and 2018 LEAF arrive in numbers I expect that BEVs will move into the majority in at least the 'semi-affordable' category, and maybe both. Whether they can hold the lead once the fed. credits start running out remains to be seen, and that's going to impact Tesla, GM and Nissan at some point in the next 12-18 months. Barring a sustained increase in the price of gas, I suspect most people who have to worry about value for money will opt for PHEVs for some time after that, until BEV prices reach (unsubsidized) parity with ICEs and the charging infrastructure for road trips is in place.

Several years back I wrote that I thought the point at which mainstream car buyers would start to consider BEVs would be 150 miles AER & $30k MSRP, but that was predicated on gas remaining at $3.50/gal. or higher as it was at that time, while the national average is currently $2.485, and fifteen or twenty cents of that is due to hurricane disruptions. I have my doubts that $30k/150 miles will be enough under current conditions, but we'll find out next year. California's $0.12/gal. gas tax hike will kick in Nov. 1st so that should help BEVs a bit, as our current avg. price/gal. is about $3.06. At least this year we'll finally cross the 1% PEV annual sales threshold.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:41 pm

October's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable* sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,967, 45.1% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,834, 54.9% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 8,801.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down by over 1,426 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3%, the first time that's happened for several months. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,781, but it couldn't compensate for the near ending of 1st gen. LEAF sales, which fell to only 213 (down from 1,055). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,626 (down from 1,899), Volt 1,362 (down from 1,453). 500e sales continued to decrease to 310 (from 375), but the e-Golf showed a slight increase to 203 (from 187), the FFE does its usual 100+ (115 vice 131) and the Soul EV dropped a bit more to 210 (from 255). Ionic BEV sales slid a bit more to 28 (from 36), and the Clarity BEV moved only 34 (down from 52).

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 569 (683) to 741 (763), The A-3 e-tron steepened its drop, from 85 to 17 apparently due to complete lack of inventory, the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both up slightly at 210 (190) and 235 (228) respectively, and bringing up the rear, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 74, down slightly from 80 last month.

October's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 216, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,195, 91.0% or 85.6% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,411. Increase/decrease of 0.3% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Oh, as RegGuheert has frequently accused me of trying to bias the % of affordable PHEVs/BEVs towards PHEVs by setting an upper limit of $40k base MSRP, it appears that Green Car Reports is similarly biased. In a poll of which manufacturer their twitter followers think will be the first to offer an affordable BEV CUV, they write:
First, by "mass-priced" we mean under $40,000 including the mandatory destination charge. (The 238-mile Chevy Bolt EV, at $37,500 for its base model, is a good example of a car close to the upper bound of that requirement.)
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113670_which-maker-will-sell-the-first-affordable-awd-electric-suv-take-our-twitter-poll

As I didn't include the destination charge, I allow somewhat higher-priced cars in the "semi-affordable" (what they call "mass-priced") category - perhaps $1k more. It wouldn't bother me to change to the even more restrictive usage, but as I've been doing it this way so long and the difference isn't all that significant, I might as well continue.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12310
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:19 am

GRA wrote:October's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable* sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,967, 45.1% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,834, 54.9% (8 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV)
Total 8,801.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down by over 1,426 M-o-M, and BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3%, the first time that's happened for several months. The Bolt reached a new high of 2,781 it couldn't compensate for the near ending of 1st gen. LEAF sales, which fell to only 213 (down from 1,055). The Bolt was followed by the Prime at 1,626 (down from 1,899), Volt 1,362 (down from 1,453). 500e sales continued decrease to 310 (from 375), but the e-Golf showed a slight increase to 203 (from 187), the FFE does its usual 100+ (115 vice 131) and the Soul EV dropped a bit more to 210 (from 255). Ionic BEV sales slid a bit more to 28 (from 36), and the Clarity BEV moved only 34 (down from 52).

The C-Max Energi failed to outsell the Fusion Energi last month and both were down, 569 (683) to 741 (763), The A-3 e-tron steepened its drop, from 85 to 17 apparently due to complete lack of inventory, the Sonata and Optima PHEV twins were both up slightly at 210 (190) and 235 (228) respectively, and bringing up the rear, the 'why bother' Mini Countryman PHV sold 74, down slightly from 80 last month.

October's U.S. sales total for affordable, sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 216* or 434, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,195, 91.0% or 85.6% (2 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi)
Total 2,411. Increase/decrease of 0.3% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

*NOTE: the Clarity Electric is only available for lease, at $269/month. This would probably put it in with the sub-$40k but not the sub-$30k group.

Oh, as RegGuheert has frequently accused me of trying to bias the % of affordable PHEVs/BEVs towards PHEVs by setting an upper limit of $40k base MSRP, it appears that Green Car Reports is similarly biased. In a poll of which manufacturer their twitter followers think will be the first to offer an affordable BEV CUV, they write:
First, by "mass-priced" we mean under $40,000 including the mandatory destination charge. (The 238-mile Chevy Bolt EV, at $37,500 for its base model, is a good example of a car close to the upper bound of that requirement.)
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113670_which-maker-will-sell-the-first-affordable-awd-electric-suv-take-our-twitter-poll

As I didn't include the destination charge, I allow somewhat higher-priced cars in the "semi-affordable" (what they call "mass-priced") category - perhaps $1k more. It wouldn't bother me to change to the even more restrictive usage, but as I've been doing it this way so long and the difference isn't all that significant, I might as well continue.


None of this surprises me

What continues to surprise me is Nissan waiting till 2018 before launching in US. Every day they are losing sales to the Bolt...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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