GRA
Posts: 6961
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:23 pm

Yes, something like "U.S. BEV/PHEV monthly sales split discussion".
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:54 am

This article, orginally posted by edatoakrun indicates the LEAF currently leads the Volt by about 2:1 in cumulative worldwide sales:
EV Sales wrote:Place Model Sales
1 Nissan Leaf 233.507
2 Tesla Model S 132.020
3 Chevrolet Volt 117.394
4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 109.980
5 Toyota Prius Plug-In 76.374
Volt is now third behind two BEVs. This is true even though the Tesla Model S started sales significantly later than the Volt and LEAF. It seems that the desire to have a gasoline engine is more a U.S. thing, perhaps due to low gasoline prices and longer driving distances.

Edit: No, it's not just a U.S. thing, as cumulative PHEV sales have surpassed BEV sales in the UK, as well. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is currently outselling the LEAF there by nearly a 2:1 margin (and growing). But also note that the LEAF is outselling the Ampera (Volt) there by greater than 10:1 margin (and growing).
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

edatoakrun
Posts: 4328
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:14 am

I expect GM is very disappointed in Gen 2 Volt sales.

Despite being a greatly improved PHEV over the gen 1, Chevy has to subsidize the cost to lessees, just to move fewer Volts than it was able to sell or lease ~5 years ago.

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

Nissan looks to be getting significantly more revenue from every LEAF S it leases, though I expect those BEVs cost at least $5k less than a Volt to manufacture.

And Nissan's current low LEAF sales sure looks like they are due in part to a planned reduction in inventory, preparatory to the announcement of a significantly improved Gen 2 LEAF, or (far less likely) US sales of Nisssan's BEVx reportedly being introduced in Japan.

...With a vastly superior LEAF set to debut in the not-so-distant future, it appears Nissan is actively managing existing inventory lower in the US.

During August average stocked inventory fell to a 2016 low around ~1,900 units (down about 600 from the month prior)...

http://insideevs.com/august-2016-plug-e ... port-card/
no condition is permanent

GRA
Posts: 6961
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:32 pm

edatoakrun wrote:I expect GM is very disappointed in Gen 2 Volt sales.

Despite being a greatly improved PHEV over the gen 1, Chevy has to subsidize the cost to lessees, just to move fewer Volts than it was able to sell or lease ~5 years ago.

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/

Nissan looks to be getting significantly more revenue from every LEAF S it leases, though I expect those BEVs cost at least $5k less than a Volt to manufacture.

And Nissan's current low LEAF sales sure looks like they are due in part to a planned reduction in inventory, preparatory to the announcement of a significantly improved Gen 2 LEAF, or (far less likely) US sales of Nisssan's BEVx reportedly being introduced in Japan.

...With a vastly superior LEAF set to debut in the not-so-distant future, it appears Nissan is actively managing existing inventory lower in the US.

During August average stocked inventory fell to a 2016 low around ~1,900 units (down about 600 from the month prior)...

http://insideevs.com/august-2016-plug-e ... port-card/

I can't speak nationwide, but the Volt 2 seems to be selling pretty well in the Bay Area, and the Volt (counting both gens) is now the most common PEV I see on my occasional evening rush hour PEV counts. The Friday before Labor day there were 20 Volt 1s and 8 Volts 2s among the 124 PEVs I counted in a two hour period. Because that was a three day holiday weekend, I decided to do a 1 hour count this past Friday (which also happened to be California's Admission Day, a state rather than national holiday). Twelve Volts (7 V1s, 5 V2s) led the list of 61 PEVs I saw, with the Model S, LEAF and PiP tied for second with 10 each, then IIRR the Fusion Energi had 5 plus 2 C-Max Energi, and there were 500es, Sparks, e-Golfs, RAV4s, FFEs and i3RExs in ones or twos. The e-Golf was quite a drop-off from the previous count, as there were 7 of them that time, so its sales have really come on.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DarthPuppy
Posts: 446
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 8:45 pm
Delivery Date: 11 Aug 2013

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:30 pm

GRA wrote:I can't speak nationwide, but the Volt 2 seems to be selling pretty well in the Bay Area, and the Volt (counting both gens) is now the most common PEV I see on my occasional evening rush hour PEV counts.


Ditto for Los Angeles. I see a lot of Volt 2s running around. I haven't done any formal counting. But it anecdotally seems like 2 out of 3 Volts I've seen on the road in the past month have been Volt 2s. I'm wondering if a lot of the Volt 1 owners have traded theirs in for the Volt 2. This could explain the sudden shift as the older Volts could be getting wholesaled out of the area where lower income buyers might be more interested in them.

edatoakrun
Posts: 4328
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:12 am

GRA wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:I expect GM is very disappointed in Gen 2 Volt sales.

Despite being a greatly improved PHEV over the gen 1, Chevy has to subsidize the cost to lessees, just to move fewer Volts than it was able to sell or lease ~5 years ago.

http://ev-vin.blogspot.com/


I can't speak nationwide, but the Volt 2 seems to be selling pretty well in the Bay Area, and the Volt (counting both gens) is now the most common PEV I see on my occasional evening rush hour PEV counts...

Thank you for your critical observations, but I suggest you look at the actual sales figures, and the actual lease offers, at the links I posted above.

Chevy looks to be leasing Volts for ~ the same cost as it does its ICEV's at ~half the list price, essentially throwing the Volt's ~18.4 kWh battery pack and complex and expensive PHEV drivetrain in-for free.

I'm sure GM could move a lot more than the ~2k Volts a month they are currently leasing/selling each month, if it wanted to lose even more money on the Volt program...
no condition is permanent

GRA
Posts: 6961
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:02 pm

GRA wrote:The surprising thing to me is that they've been selling as well as they have without benefit of Green HOV stickers. I've seen a small number of 2016s with the stickers, but most seem to be brand new 2017s. That's the most encouraging fact, that people are buying them without getting the huge albeit diminishing benefit (with the stickers expiring on 1/1/2019) in time/money of the stickers. Those stickers have been worth as much or more to the average Volt buyer than the fed. tax credit and state rebate. So, while they likely still need both the subsidies to compete, they apparently no longer need the perk. It's not going to happen, but I'd love to see that removed for BEVs also, once the Bolt arrives.

I missed it, but the very day I made this ^^^ post, the governor signed SB-838, which as well as funding all sorts of AFV programs, reinstated Green HOV stickers and removed any limit on their numbers, i.e. they're now unlimited* in how many can be issued as for the white stickers, but they'll still expire 1/1/2019. I think this is a mistake, as I'm against incentivizing single occupant vehicles to use carpool lanes regardless of their power source, but expect PHEV sales to take off over the next few months, as many of those for whom a BEV just won't work for their commute, and who would have bought a PHEV if the stickers were available, will now do so. I expect a flood of new Volts etc.

* Reading the bill text, it seems they may be limited before 1/1/2019:
However, with respect to vehicles that meet the state’s enhanced advanced technology partial zero-emission vehicle standard or transitional zero-emission vehicle standard, the provisions would be operative only until the earlier of January 1, 2019, the date of the federal authorization, or the receipt date of the notice by the Secretary of State. The bill would require the Department of Transportation to prepare and submit a report to the Legislature by December 1, 2017, on the degradation status of high-occupancy vehicle lanes on the state highway system.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 6961
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Oct 23, 2016 4:31 pm

September's U.S. sales total for sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,960, 37.4% (8 types: LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Spark EV; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; iMiEV).
PHEV, 4,948, 62.6% (6 types: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 e-Tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)
Total 7,908

Slight change in favor of the BEV for the monthly share. The e-Golf continues to come on strong with 529 sales. The Fusion Energi continues to outsell the LEAF, and is now about 2,400 ahead for the year. The A3 e-Tron continues to sell between 300-361 cars a month, as it has done 8 out of nine months this year (Feb. 243).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

ydnas7
Posts: 587
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:57 am

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Oct 23, 2016 4:46 pm

GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,960, 37.4% (8 types: LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Spark EV; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; iMiEV).
PHEV, 4,948, 62.6% (6 types: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 e-Tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)
Total 7,908

Slight change in favor of the BEV for the monthly share. The e-Golf continues to come on strong with 529 sales. The Fusion Energi continues to outsell the LEAF, and is now about 2,400 ahead for the year. The A3 e-Tron continues to sell between 300-361 cars a month, as it has done 8 out of nine months this year (Feb. 243).


seriously, you exclude tesla?
or even Bolt? :lol: or used Tesla?

GRA
Posts: 6961
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Oct 24, 2016 3:00 pm

ydnas7 wrote:
GRA wrote:September's U.S. sales total for sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,960, 37.4% (8 types: LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Spark EV; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; iMiEV).
PHEV, 4,948, 62.6% (6 types: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 e-Tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)
Total 7,908

Slight change in favor of the BEV for the monthly share. The e-Golf continues to come on strong with 529 sales. The Fusion Energi continues to outsell the LEAF, and is now about 2,400 ahead for the year. The A3 e-Tron continues to sell between 300-361 cars a month, as it has done 8 out of nine months this year (Feb. 243).


seriously, you exclude tesla?
or even Bolt? :lol: or used Tesla?

See "sub-$40k MSRP PEVs". Tesla continues to carry BEVs on its back, but until the Model 3 arrives they won't be 'affordable'.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Return to “News & Main LEAF Discussion”