GRA
Posts: 9094
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:35 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Isn’t this rather arbitrary and pointless.

It's somewhat arbitrary, but not pointless. If PEVs are to become mass market, they must have mass market prices. The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. is currently about $36k. $40k was chosen way back when as both the LEAF and Volt had MSRPs below $40k. I personally consider $30k base MSRP as a better measure of the mass market, but given the dearth of PEVs available for that price at the time I chose the higher number, adding the lower price categories as cars became available in those price ranges. I'm still waiting for the first $20k PEV.

Zythryn wrote:This is only 33% of the EV market.

As such, it doesn’t give a very clear look at the EV market share as a whole.

Nor is it intended to. What the EV market as a whole shows is that PEVs generally, and BEVs specifically, are still in the early adopter phase of well-off people buying expensive toys because they can afford to. Until such time as affordable PEVs outsell luxury models, we won't have crossed the chasm to mass market appeal.

Interesting thesis, but isn’t the whole point to track how the EV market is changing as a whole?

Not in this thread. See below.

Zythryn wrote:The term “mass market” is also very arbitrary, and your use of the term “toy” comes across as derogatory.

Mass market implies that the average new car buyer can afford it. Think Camry/Accord/Civic/Corolla prices. "Toy" can be derogatory, but in this case it merely emphasizes that people who can afford Teslas and similarly-priced cars aren't making purchase decisions based primarily on the best auto transportation value for their dollar, but on other non-essential factors (for transportation; image/status/performance/environment etc. may be essential from a personal choice point of view, but not from a transportation point of view).

Zythryn wrote:New technology starts as generally, more expensive. Conclusions about the EV market made based on a minority of the market while ignoring the majority of it, are rather pointless.

What matters is the total EV units sold as a fraction of total cars sold.

Which is being tracked elsewhere, by me among many others. This topic is deliberately more limited. If you find it pointless, you can happily ignore it and go on with your life without wasting your time reading it, and those of us who think it's anything but pointless will continue to follow it, because we think it's a critical metric. The % of PEVs sold is also important, but as any major increase in that requires lower-priced vehicles that most people can afford, it is inextricably entwined with mass market-prices. To repeat a point made upthread, supposedly the size of the potential market for a car doubles (or halves) for every $5k decrease (increase) in MSRP. Obviously that's a general number, and $5k matters a lot more at the lower end of the price range than it does at the top, but it's still valuable. The size of the potential market for a $49k car will always be less than for a $40k, $30k, $25k or $20k car, regardless of how big the actual market for that car is at any one time due to other factors.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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