DaveinOlyWA wrote:Does it? Because you are just as far off base if you are even considering the idea that T3 is affordable due to brisk sales.
While I didn't say that, I do find it humorous that a single "unaffordable" BEV is outselling the combined sales of around 10 "affordable" PHEVs.
Again, GRA's categories have been created simply to try to prop up a years-old statement that PHEVs will outsell BEVs in the short-to-medium term. In fact the opposite is true, as I have shown repeatedly in this thread. Yet he continues to tell us about how affordable PHEVs are outselling affordable BEVs
Because they are, Reg, although I divide it into semi-affordable (sub-$40k), affordable (sub-$30k) and very affordable (sub-$25k), as I've explained to you many times. The categories were created to include the two vehicles in the topic title, after the Volt had dropped its MSRP below $40k, and the other categories have been added as competitors arrived at lower price points. If you didn't think the two (and the two techs) were being cross-shopped, why did you even start the topic?
That you disagree with the rationale of the categories is well-known, and you are free to put whatever significance on the data that you choose. But then so am I. My rationale is that I don't believe any vehicle costing well above the median transaction price is (semi-) affordable, and until such time as BEVs with acceptable characteristics have seen their prices drop to those levels and charging infrastructure is far more widely available and of equal or less cost than gas, I don't believe BEVs will become mass-market (barring huge subsidies or government mandates), and less-expensive PHEVs will need to fill the void in the interim. I define mass market as ~15% of sales without subsidies, and believe it will require sub-$30k base MSRPs to achieve that. You believe that cars well above the $40k cut-off will be enough to reach the tipping point. We'll eventually find out which of our views as to what is and is not required for a product to be mass-market, is correct. As U.S. PEV sales are now at just 2.1% of total sales, we've got a ways to go, but the trends are encouraging. Although their actions send a mixed message, GM appears to be saying they're all-in on BEVs:
GM president dashes hopes of future Volt, says no more hybrids
but the editor apparently shares my concerns, as he notes:
. . . Hopes for a replacement for the Volt that might be somewhat larger—perhaps a crossover or something with more rear-seat room—sound likely to go unfulfilled, despite the fact that GM is planning to introduce exactly such a car in China this year: the Buick Velite 6 plug-in hybrid. The Velite 6 is also expected to have a fully-electric option when it goes on sale.
GM's new strategy was supported by the headline announcement that the company will focus its next electric efforts under the much more expensive Cadillac brand. Clearly, GM is feeling the heat from Tesla, which started with a strategy of amortizing its investments in building new battery supplies by selling cutting-edge luxury cars, not by relying on tax credits to try and sell a greater number of affordable cars to the masses.
The questions now are whether GM's move upmarket for its electric models will come just as more mainstream buyers, with lower budgets, begin shopping for electric cars, and whether electric-car charging infrastructure has reached a state in which those mainstream buyers don't need to be worried about range—and comforted by having an "extra" gas engine, just in case.