lorenfb
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:48 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Does it? Because you are just as far off base if you are even considering the idea that T3 is affordable due to brisk sales.
While I didn't say that, I do find it humorous that a single "unaffordable" BEV is outselling the combined sales of around 10 "affordable" PHEVs.

Again, GRA's categories have been created simply to try to prop up a years-old statement that PHEVs will outsell BEVs in the short-to-medium term. In fact the opposite is true, as I have shown repeatedly in this thread. Yet he continues to tell us about how affordable PHEVs are outselling affordable BEVs.


Only time will determine whether the M3 long term sales are truly a step-function in BEV sales or just a step function
with an exponential decay. Presently, the M3 sales are mainly supported by the distorted backlog, where consumers
bought-into a $35K Tesla with a $7.5K tax credit, and now many are being up scaled to the much more expense M3s.
By the end of Q2 2019, a more realistic effect of the M3 on the BEV market will become deterministic.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
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jlv
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:43 pm

lorenfb wrote:Only time will determine whether the M3 long term sales are truly a step-function in BEV sales or just a step function
with an exponential decay.
Very true.

But also telling is that in 2018 more 3s were sold in the US than *all* the LEAFs Nissan has sold in the US since the car became available. It clearly states that the (apparently 'not-affordable') 3 sells much better than the (apparently 'affordable') LEAF. There must be some value proposition the buyers see in the 3. (*)

(*) IMHO, it's that the 3 can be your only car, something that is true for the Volt but really hard pressed to with a LEAF. I think that's the same reason why the Volt had been outselling the LEAF for the last few years.
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
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GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:15 pm

jlv wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Only time will determine whether the M3 long term sales are truly a step-function in BEV sales or just a step function
with an exponential decay.
Very true.

But also telling is that in 2018 more 3s were sold in the US than *all* the LEAFs Nissan has sold in the US since the car became available. It clearly states that the (apparently 'not-affordable') 3 sells much better than the (apparently 'affordable') LEAF. There must be some value proposition the buyers see in the 3. (*)

Affordability isn't the same as desirability, and just because something's affordable doesn't mean it's considered a good value. If it were, the Yugo would have sold here like gangbusters, instead of rightly being seen as the piece of crap they were, and avoided.

jlv wrote:(*) IMHO, it's that the 3 can be your only car, something that is true for the Volt but really hard pressed to with a LEAF. I think that's the same reason why the Volt had been outselling the LEAF for the last few years.

And why affordable/semi-affordable PHEVs will likely continue to out-sell same category BEVs for a few years yet. If you can afford a Model 3 or similar capability BEV, you probably don't need to have the ICE to handle the edge cases, but if you can't then it's PHEV/HEV/ICE. Which has been my point all along. Semi-affordable 200+ mile BEVs advance us closer to the goal of full ICE replacement, but combined with the lack of infrastructure and other issues, not enough to convert the masses to perceiving them as having a higher value than less expensive ICEs with greater utility. A $30k base MSRP RAV4 EV with 300+ miles of range and charging at 150+kW might be enough to do it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:07 am

What it really boils down to is that Tesla has spun the market well enough that people can rationalize the extra cost of a Tesla due to the perceived value of the car while other EV manufacturers have not.

One the one hand we have Tesla; unparalleled after sales support with SC, Rangers, upgraded features, etc. All of which are very good but not as good as we perceive them to be. Result; Massive hype fueled by a rabid fanbase that is literally brainwashing people to mortgage their existence to get a car. Sounds bad? No because EVs really are "that" beneficial especially if doing 15,000+ miles a year which a lot of us do and more.

Then we have the others; Have very good products at competitive prices but have marketed the car pathetically resulting in a generalization that its a "Chevy" or a "Nissan" etc. Now the car's true value is overlooked because the BEV from Chevy is compared with other Chevy products.
But those EVs are also cool to drive, quick, fun, etc. but only the still small group of owners know it and they have yet to get that word out unlike Tesla that got that word out YEARS before the car was built.

Result; An inability to overlook the sticker price to see the long term benefits of saving a little money every day. Without out the excitement and hype, its easy to take a deep breath, calm down and settle into your old, well known and strangely trusted life long stereotypes. Not only will you not mortgage your life to get an EV from Chevy or Nissan, etc. You won't even pay the same amount that you would pay for another car from the same dealership.

Reality says that Tesla has pulled off the T3 ramp up horribly. Their quality is pathetic, glaring cosmetic issues that couldn't possibly be overlooked makes it past the factory, past the delivery center to the customer. Introduced with an AI in progress that is still being fixed to this day but did "any" of that matter? No, because Tesla has built a reputation of "making it right" so not "making it right the first time" simply does not matter.

On the flipside, any teeny tiny vaguely conceivable slight from the standard dealership, and that brand is banned for life.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:24 pm

IEVS:
The Biggest Challenge Facing Electric Cars Is Still Affordability
https://insideevs.com/electric-cars-affordability/

. . . When Elon Musk announced job cuts at Tesla last week, he gave a clear reason for the belt-tightening. “We face an extremely difficult challenge: making our cars, batteries, and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels,” he wrote to his employees. “While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people.”

Tesla showed the world that electric cars can provide long range, luxury, and incredible performance. Its vehicles upended the notion that EVs were cramped and compromised city cars. The whole industry followed Tesla by increasing the size of its batteries. That’s a good thing. But it has not helped with EV affordability.

Yes, the cost of EV batteries continues to fall. So far, that hasn’t translated to lower prices for electric cars. “Decreasing prices as a function of the battery price has allowed automakers to put vehicles out there with larger and larger batteries,” Scott Shepard, an analyst at Navigant Research, told InsideEVs. “The purchase price hasn’t dipped down. As federal purchase incentives come out of the market, you’re likely to see prices stay at the same level for you the next four to five years.”

Shepard said that Tesla’s strategy to start with the top of the market made a lot of sense. “The price premium is significantly diminished in the luxury segment because there are a lot more bells and whistles,” he said. “In the economy segment, it’s significantly more difficult to make those trade-offs.”

That’s precisely the point made this week by Hans Dieter Pötsch, Volkswagen’s chairman. He said that it will be difficult to make a viable business out of small, entry-level EVs.

Pötsch explained: “The current price level cannot stay the same if these cars are equipped with electric motors. Therefore, it will inevitably lead to significant price increases in the small car segment.” As a result, Pötsch said that EVs could very well remain “unaffordable for people on low incomes.”

If he’s right, we can expect wealthy people to buy electric Audis, BMWs, Jaguars, Porsches, and Teslas – and even relatively expense models from the likes of Chevy. But lower-income folks will have to wait for those cars to show up on the used market.

These trends are confirmed by a survey of more than more than 22,000 EV drivers conducted by PlugInsights, the world’s largest EV driver-research panel. There’s a big distinction between consumers buying expensive long-range EVs with big batteries and those driving lower-cost electric cars with smaller batteries.

Forty-five percent of EV buyers who bought long-range EVs (Tesla cars and the Chevy Bolt) make more than $200,000 a year. With the introduction of the Model 3, the percentage of long-range EV buyers making more than $200k has decreased to about 38 percent. But the overall EV slightly shifted toward wealthier buyers.

Meanwhile, EV buyers who purchased an electric car with fewer than 150 miles of range are a different set. Only 17.5 percent of those EV drivers make more than $200,000. From 2011 to 2018, 38 percent of folks buying lower-range EVs make less than $100,000 a year.

Elon is right. He said it five years ago and he said it again last week. EV affordability is an “extremely difficult challenge.”. . . .


On a more positive note for the mid-term, also IEVS:
Deloitte Predicts Strong Growth Of EV Market: Oversupply In 10 Years
https://insideevs.com/deloitte-predicts-strong-growth-ev/

According to the latest from Deloitte research, sales of plug-in electric cars by 2030 will increase beyond 20 million per year.

Sales currently hit about 2 million in 2018 and the forecast says that it will increase to:

4 million in 2020

12 million in 2025

21 million in 2030 and BEVs will take 70% of total plug-ins segment . . . .

    “Deloitte’s analysis points to two factors in accelerating BEV uptake: growing consumer demand for greener vehicles, coupled with government policies that offer financial incentives while placing inner-city restrictions for gasoline and diesel vehicles.While upfront purchasing costs of EVs remain the biggest barrier for consumers, the research reveals how, as technology improves, this and other consumer concerns will gradually ease over time. Deloitte predicts that by 2024, the cost to own a BEV will be on par with that of a petrol or diesel vehicle, which could boost demand further.”

Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte, said:

    “In 2018, we saw global EV sales surpass two million units for the first time; twice those sold in 2017. In the UK, the cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with electric over the next five years. Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances, this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers.”

Oversupply

Especially interesting is however this notion of oversupply. Deloitte thinks that in about 10 years, we will see a big oversupply of EV, as there will be more production capacity than demand and too many manufacturers.

“A global oversupply of 14 million vehicles is expected as manufacturers’ investment in capacity outpaces demand by 2030.”

“Growing demand for greener vehicles has seen the majority of OEMs announce their ambitions in the EV market and the emergence of a number of new entrants to the automotive market. However, Deloitte’s research suggest that the number of manufacturers is unsustainable. . . .”
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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jlv
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:12 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:Reality says that Tesla has pulled off the T3 ramp up horribly. Their quality is pathetic, glaring cosmetic issues that couldn't possibly be overlooked makes it past the factory, past the delivery center to the customer.
Stale news? Some early 3s had a few panel misalignment problems, as was the case with the one I saw in Jan 2018 in the Boston store (one of the first 3's on display in a store on the east coast).

However, I think that is not happening anymore. I don't think there are any such issues on the 2 dozen 3s that have been bought by coworkers in the last 8 months.
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
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jonathanfields4ever
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:24 pm

jlv wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Reality says that Tesla has pulled off the T3 ramp up horribly. Their quality is pathetic, glaring cosmetic issues that couldn't possibly be overlooked makes it past the factory, past the delivery center to the customer.
Stale news? Some early 3s had a few panel misalignment problems, as was the case with the one I saw in Jan 2018 in the Boston store (one of the first 3's on display in a store on the east coast).

However, I think that is not happening anymore. I don't think there are any such issues on the 2 dozen 3s that have been bought by coworkers in the last 8 months.


That’s not true at all. We’re still hearing reports of Model 3s with bad paint jobs, misaligned panels, battery packs that need replacement and more. The Model X in the Tesla showroom at my local mall has a visibly crooked frunk and frunk latch. It’s no secret they have quality issues. The cars drive well enough and have amazing features, so it’s worth the trouble for some people, but they do need to fix the issues.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:31 pm

Reality says that Tesla has pulled off the T3 ramp up horribly. Their quality is pathetic, glaring cosmetic issues that couldn't possibly be overlooked makes it past the factory, past the delivery center to the customer. Introduced with an AI in progress that is still being fixed to this day but did "any" of that matter?


English is a dead language...
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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jlv
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:51 am

jonathanfields4ever wrote:The Model X in the Tesla showroom at my local mall has a visibly crooked frunk and frunk latch.

That's the exact problem my LEAF had (has, as the Nissan dealer never fixed it correctly).
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
75K 100% BEV miles since '14
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:02 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Reality says that Tesla has pulled off the T3 ramp up horribly. Their quality is pathetic, glaring cosmetic issues that couldn't possibly be overlooked makes it past the factory, past the delivery center to the customer. Introduced with an AI in progress that is still being fixed to this day but did "any" of that matter?


English is a dead language...


:lol:

The irony of this statement is amusing. A dead language is one that is no longer in common use. As a result, that language does not change over time, as all "living" languages do. One could almost argue (although it wouldn't be me) that the constant "misuse" of words simply reflects the new meaning of the words.
~Brian

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