'16 30 kWh pack - backwards compatibility and warranty?

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
tkdbrusco said:
I really hope that they make the 30Kwh pack fit into MY11-15 cars! if so I'll keep my 2015 much longer than I originally anticipated.

A move like that would stop the flow of 'off-leased' leaf flooding the market and helping the used prices ;)
 
tkdbrusco said:
They then sent the MY15 cars out with the new packs (perhaps some of the MY14s had them too?) They waited around to hear how resilient they were in various situations, heat, mileage, etc... Once they had data that supported the improved chemistry, they decided to go forth with the new chemistry in a more densely built pack on the MY16, hence the 30kwh pack. They squeezed the cells in, removed the internal spacers, and there you have it! 30kwh pack in the same package.
That makes no sense at all. Why don't we stick with the facts as we know them?

'11-12 LEAF: Original less than heat-tolerant chemistry.
'13-14 LEAF: Packaging tweaks to reduce weight and cost of pack assembly. Minor tweak to chemistry, but no significant change to chemistry or heat tolerance.
'15 LEAF: "Lizard" chemistry with heat tolerant chemistry. No change to capacity.

Nissan has always said that the interesting things will happen when you can squeeze in more energy in the same amount of space.

30 kWh in the same space as the current 24 kWh pack is a decent upgrade in energy density.

Now the question is whether they will produce the current chemistry for the '16 LEAF S, or if they will package fewer higher density modules.

Right now each of the 48 modules holds about 0.5 kWh of energy. Assuming that they keep the packaging the same (and it makes very little sense to change packaging for a single model year), a 30 kWh pack will hold about 0.625 kWh. Nissan could use the new higher density cells with the same packaging, but only 38 of them for 23.75 kWh, but this would also reduce pack voltage by a significant amount. So it seems that Nissan would simply continue using the current "Lizard" chemistry for the 24 kWh LEAF rather than re-package the new cell in a 80% capacity module configuration. But who knows - maybe they will? We'll find out soon enough.
 
drees said:
Now the question is whether they will produce the current chemistry for the '16 LEAF S, or if they will package fewer higher density modules.

Right now each of the 48 modules holds about 0.5 kWh of energy. Assuming that they keep the packaging the same (and it makes very little sense to change packaging for a single model year), a 30 kWh pack will hold about 0.625 kWh. Nissan could use the new higher density cells with the same packaging, but only 38 of them for 23.75 kWh, but this would also reduce pack voltage by a significant amount. So it seems that Nissan would simply continue using the current "Lizard" chemistry for the 24 kWh LEAF rather than re-package the new cell in a 80% capacity module configuration. But who knows - maybe they will? We'll find out soon enough.
I expect that the modules will all be the same in a given model year, so I suspect the S will simply have fewer modules.

If that is correct, then there are a couple of related questions:

- Will the 2016 LEAF S have the same capacity as the 2015s, but lower weight AND lower maximum power due to the reduced voltage?
- Does reduced voltage mean reduced heater power in very cold weather?
- Does reduced voltage have any deleterious effects on the life of the compressor in the air conditioner.

But, perhaps more importantly:
- How will Nissan offer increased capacity for 2017 in increments other than double the 30 kWh (or perhaps double the 24 kWh)? Let's say that 30 kWh gets you the same voltage as today's LEAF. It seems clear that 60 kWh could easily be offered, but what if Nissan cannot shoehorn that many (96) modules into the vehicle? Would they offer a version with, say, 76 modules providing ~47.5 kWh, but both higher weight AND lower maximum acceleration and lower heater wattage in extreme cold.

The heater thing could be easily addressed at the factory by simply changing the resistance of the heater for models with only 38 modules in series, but what about the compressor motor in the air conditioner?

One answer could be that Nissan will change the module configurations from 2+2 to a single series string of four modules. Then they could offer a 24 kWh model with 2 strings of 19 modules, a 30 kWh model with 2 strings of 24 modules and a 45 kWh model with three strings of 24 modules. But modules with four cells in series would each need five terminals instead of just three, so amount of wiring would be increased significantly to support the BMS, etc.

Another answer may be to go with larger modules, like 3+2 modules like GM has in the Volt.

There are more questions, but I think you get the idea: If Nissan starts to offer battery options with different output voltages to provided different capacity options, then that has quite a few knock-on effects.

I'll be interested to see how Nissan (and other manufacturers) handle the issue of offering various capacities which are not multiples of some base value.
 
I think that part of the reason you're only seeing a 25% increase is that they are trying to accommodate the existing pack dimensions in order to make it backwards compatible and not have to do significant modifications to the chasis of the car. Once Leaf2 hits, there will no doubt be a significant bump in capacity. I just hope when the official press release comes through, they make it so that these batteries are compatible with all MY11-15 cars. My guess would be that they will be. I just can't see them leaving all these leafs out to dry. When all these lease returns come in, they are going to want to be able to either convince owners to keep them, or alternative, make them attractive to sell to other consumers. The ONLY way that can be done is if there is an affordable 30kwh pack option as a replacement. My guess for replacement pack price is $6500+ installation. (which will include a credit for return of the old one). If you want the 24kwh pack, you pay $5500+ installation. If you are under warranty repair and are getting a new pack, perhaps they give you the option to pay the additional $1000? or maybe they start refurbing old packs and give you no option of an upgrade at all?
 
tkdbrusco said:
...I just hope when the official press release comes through, they make it so that these batteries are compatible with all MY11-15 cars. My guess would be that they will be...

More likely than not, IMO, based on previous statements from Nissan, that they were planning for upgrade capability of the battery pack.

But I wouldn't count on it, until Nissan says so.

Having only the semi-verified report of 30 kWh, we don't know yet if the new pack design (and maybe other considerations) will make 2011-15 LEAF upgrades to 30 kWh practicable.
 
GRA said:
Yes, most people lease, which is why I've said that the LEAF is a 'three years and throw it away car'. With the Soul's warranty, assuming the 70% range in your conditions (65 miles minus whatever allowances you make for heat, wet roads reserve etc.) is adequate, buying it can be a reasonable choice. You know you've got at least a decade (or 100k miles) of use, or it's on Kia. With only a 5 yr./60k warranty and cars routinely lasting only about three years for what they were bought for, leasing is the only reasonable option for most LEAF owners.
It's worth pointing out that there are a lot of new LEAFers here who picked up those off-lease used cars. I think the "throw it away" epithet is a bit much. I'm looking to keep my LEAF ~7 years, at which point I will sell it to someone else after I get my Model 3. Hardly throwing it away.
 
Nissan's own numbers show that the vast majority choose to turn their car in rather than buy out the lease and that relatively few were resold other than at auction (or from resellers who bought them at auction)... I don't think that qualifies as "a lot..."

dgpcolorado said:
It's worth pointing out that there are a lot of new LEAFers here who picked up those off-lease used cars. I think the "throw it away" epithet is a bit much.
 
I don't know.
He said a lot "here," and it does seem there have been more than a few new owners of used Leafs on this site..
(Myself included)

desiv
 
desiv said:
I don't know.
He said a lot "here," and it does seem there have been more than a few new owners of used Leafs on this site..
(Myself included)

desiv
There have been a few. OTOH, there have been far more who are either on their second LEAF or have bailed to a longer range BEV, a PHEV, or even (in a few cases) gone back to ICE, because it's just not worth the hassle of putting up with the even more limited range. And the LEAF's depreciation is horrible for that reason, the worst in the country.
 
GRA said:
OTOH, there have been far more who are either on their second LEAF or have bailed to a longer range BEV, a PHEV, or even (in a few cases) gone back to ICE, because it's just not worth the hassle of putting up with the even more limited range.
Interesting, how many is that?
(Just wondering what you based your "far more" on, as it sounds like something concrete...)
GRA said:
And the LEAF's depreciation is horrible for that reason, the worst in the country.
Hence, the increase in used sales...
Depreciation means lower prices for used cars! YAY for us buying used!!
(And thank you again early adopters for helping make this possible!!) ;-)

desiv
 
Given the prices I think my Leaf would be a bargain. If I could "wash" it through a lease return and repurchase it at the current used prices in Portland, OR I'd do it. If Nissan would sell it to me at what they are getting at the local auction house rather than just the $5K markdown, they could save their selves some hassle and have an even happier customer.
 
desiv said:
GRA said:
OTOH, there have been far more who are either on their second LEAF or have bailed to a longer range BEV, a PHEV, or even (in a few cases) gone back to ICE, because it's just not worth the hassle of putting up with the even more limited range.
Interesting, how many is that?
(Just wondering what you based your "far more" on, as it sounds like something concrete...)
Based on my following this and other EV forums for 3.5 years, and noticing how many people have already given up their LEAF (or their first LEAF) for something else, plus monitoring the distribution of PEVs locally (in the largest EV market in the country) at several month intervals.

desiv said:
GRA said:
And the LEAF's depreciation is horrible for that reason, the worst in the country.
Hence, the increase in used sales...
Depreciation means lower prices for used cars! YAY for us buying used!!
(And thank you again early adopters for helping make this possible!!) ;-)

desiv
Of course there's an increase in used sales, when you start from virtually none. It's only recently* that large numbers of LEAF's have come off lease, but demand for them is poor so prices are low.

*There were some very early bails when people found out that the car just wouldn't work for them in winter; the shortest interval I remember was about a month from purchase to trade-in (for a Volt IIRR).
 
Demand for used LEAFs is holding quite considering its price compared to NEW LEAFs

Going from 2012-2013 Nissan dropped the base model price of the LEAF by about $6.5k. and like per like by about $3.5k

take half the ex rebate price of a new LEAF, so thats ((29k-7.5k)/2)= ~10.5k is a reasonable start for a normal price for an early LEAF
 
GRA said:
Yes, most people lease, which is why I've said that the LEAF is a 'three years and throw it away car'. With the Soul's warranty, assuming the 70% range in your conditions (65 miles minus whatever allowances you make for heat, wet roads reserve etc.) is adequate, buying it can be a reasonable choice. You know you've got at least a decade (or 100k miles) of use, or it's on Kia. With only a 5 yr./60k warranty and cars routinely lasting only about three years for what they were bought for, leasing is the only reasonable option for most LEAF owners.
Here in PNW with low battery degradation your comments make little sense.

84 or 95 (or 105) - doesn't matter. Gen 1 EVs are essentially obsolete when Gen 2 comes out. Used prices will be like what happens to 3 year old laptops - even if they work perfectly fine.

As long as Nissan is not crushing used Leafs, I'm fine. They are taking a big hit on the prices but most of them are getting sold back to drivers - who might be owning EVs for the first time. I'm happy to get a new Leaf every two years if it helps someone get a good used Leaf for a lot less in 2 years.
 
dgpcolorado said:
GRA said:
Yes, most people lease, which is why I've said that the LEAF is a 'three years and throw it away car'. With the Soul's warranty, assuming the 70% range in your conditions (65 miles minus whatever allowances you make for heat, wet roads reserve etc.) is adequate, buying it can be a reasonable choice. You know you've got at least a decade (or 100k miles) of use, or it's on Kia. With only a 5 yr./60k warranty and cars routinely lasting only about three years for what they were bought for, leasing is the only reasonable option for most LEAF owners.
It's worth pointing out that there are a lot of new LEAFers here who picked up those off-lease used cars. I think the "throw it away" epithet is a bit much. I'm looking to keep my LEAF ~7 years, at which point I will sell it to someone else after I get my Model 3. Hardly throwing it away.
I too am in it for the long term. I fully intend to keep my leaf for 10 years before upgrading to who-knows-what will be available in 2012. I'll probably sell my leaf to some high school kid. But if the price is too low I may extract the battery and give the rest to an junk yard. Even at 10kWh the battery is useful to me for stationary storage.
 
edatoakrun said:
tkdbrusco said:
...I just hope when the official press release comes through, they make it so that these batteries are compatible with all MY11-15 cars. My guess would be that they will be...

More likely than not, IMO, based on previous statements from Nissan, that they were planning for upgrade capability of the battery pack.

But I wouldn't count on it, until Nissan says so.

Having only the semi-verified report of 30 kWh, we don't know yet if the new pack design (and maybe other considerations) will make 2011-15 LEAF upgrades to 30 kWh practicable.

Any upgrade packs for older cars will be announced later and separately IMHO.

I think Nissan will do everything they can to offer an upgrade for old vehciles. Failure to do so will only encourage aftermarket tinkerers to do so which will make Nissan look like lemons(tm) for not being able to match the aftermarket tinkerers.
 
JPWhite said:
edatoakrun said:
tkdbrusco said:
...I just hope when the official press release comes through, they make it so that these batteries are compatible with all MY11-15 cars. My guess would be that they will be...

More likely than not, IMO, based on previous statements from Nissan, that they were planning for upgrade capability of the battery pack.

But I wouldn't count on it, until Nissan says so.

Having only the semi-verified report of 30 kWh, we don't know yet if the new pack design (and maybe other considerations) will make 2011-15 LEAF upgrades to 30 kWh practicable.

Any upgrade packs for older cars will be announced later and separately IMHO.

I think Nissan will do everything they can to offer an upgrade for old vehciles. Failure to do so will only encourage aftermarket tinkerers to do so which will make Nissan look like lemons(tm) for not being able to match the aftermarket tinkerers.
My concern is that it will be a while before they offer such upgrades, due to battery production volumes. Look at how long it takes to get a replacement battery for existing LEAFs that desperately need them... there's not going to be suddenly a glut of modules available to swap in. I think that may be the reason they don't offer upgrades in the short term, if anything.
 
tkdbrusco said:
I just hope when the official press release comes through, they make it so that these batteries are compatible with all MY11-15 cars. My guess would be that they will be. I just can't see them leaving all these leafs out to dry.
My guess is that you haven't been watching for the last 4 years how the 2011 Leaf owners have been screwed by Nissan.
 
Back
Top