4CloverLeaf wrote:The analysis for this article is a joke and the data has been misused. Let me spin this a bit. I bought my 2017 with a $10,000 incentive, a $7,500 federal tax credit, a $5,000 state tax rebate, and a negotiated purchase price below MSRP. In total, I bought my Leaf for for 67.7% off MSRP. If I sell it for what they project as the most depreciated car down the road, I will have a gain on the car and appreciation instead of depreciation. That is not even counting any savings in fuel or maintenance. However, that is not going to happen and the car will be worth less. I am estimating that at four years old, with newer and better EVs available and no more federal tax credits, my car will be worth around $7,500. Still, that puts my total cost of ownership extremely low. In fact, I have spent more on wheels and tires for my BMW over a four year span of time.
Most people don't have a $10K incentive available to them on top of the $7500 tax credit. Many don't even qualify for the entire $7500 federal credit.
I think used values will remain very low for this generation of Leaf as the very short range current EVs with quickly degrading batteries will look so antiquated in a few years as most new generation EVs will be 200 miles or more and not degrade nearly as quickly.
It will take a very low price for people to commit to purchasing a vehicle with only 80 miles or maybe much less usable range when better EVs start hitting used car market in large numbers.
I see dealers commonly listing CPO 2016 SVs and SLs in the $18.9 to $20K range and, even though I know that's only an asking price for starting negotiations, I don't even want to go look at them because the price seems so outrageously out of line to be worth even a few thousand less than that. The price needs to be lower to account for the inconvenience and costs I would have renting cars for trips longer than my work commute.
If I look at 2014s, I see more cars listed for well under $10K and at the lower pricing levels, it starts to more worth it even after factoring in some car rental costs and the hassle of picking up and returning rentals cars several times every year.