SageBrush
Posts: 681
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:59 pm

I put a deposit down today on a two year old off-lease LEAF that was sold at auction for ~ $6k. That is about a 75% depreciation.
Good for me, but it implies a lot of negative things about Nissan's EV program in general, and even worse about the LEAF program.

If brand recognition really has market value then Nissan will have to change the name to continue in the EV space. Warranted or not, LEAF has become synonymous with failed battery technology and awful depreciation in the US. And to add insult to injury, Tesla is coming out with a $35k, 200 mile car in about a year and Nissan has sold their battery factory.

I would be delighted to see Nissan succeed in EVs, but that really seems like a wild hope. CES sounds to me like a Nissan pivot to autonomous technology, not a leap to the next generation LEAF.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 11591
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:48 am

SageBrush wrote:I put a deposit down today on a two year old off-lease LEAF that was sold at auction for ~ $6k. That is about a 75% depreciation.
Good for me, but it implies a lot of negative things about Nissan's EV program in general, and even worse about the LEAF program.

If brand recognition really has market value then Nissan will have to change the name to continue in the EV space. Warranted or not, LEAF has become synonymous with failed battery technology and awful depreciation in the US. And to add insult to injury, Tesla is coming out with a $35k, 200 mile car in about a year and Nissan has sold their battery factory.

I would be delighted to see Nissan succeed in EVs, but that really seems like a wild hope. CES sounds to me like a Nissan pivot to autonomous technology, not a leap to the next generation LEAF.


the degradation may not be in line with a typical car that "might" introduce new tech at the rate of an arguable 1% per year but I think if comparing new tech with new tech, I think you will see the LEAF's rate of degradation very much in line with what we have seen before...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles. 2016 S30; 13001 miles. 363 GIDs, Ahr 82.34, Hx; 102ish% kwh 28.1 QCs 112
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

JasonA
Posts: 560
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 10:16 am
Delivery Date: 04 May 2013
Location: Sylmar, CA

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:41 am

DarthPuppy wrote:Really? You positively know that Nissan's big announcement will be Leaf 2.0 and that it is just a bigger, air-cooled battery?

If so, I think that would be a pretty bad mistake on their part. But that type of announcement doesn't warrant CES venue as opposed to a routine auto show venue.
Seeing all the mistakes they have made in the past, including the latest with the 2g cellular junk they put into the car (when 3g was standard and 4g was just coming out) and now making customers pay $199 for fixing their issues on a car that is STILL UNDER WARRANTY!!! :roll:

Why should I have to pay to fix my car that still under factory Nissan warranty that's their screwup? :?

I'm sorry... but Nissan just keeps getting worse and worse at handling things
2012 10kw Dual LQ cooled Brusa powered Leaf "Astro"
13kw Enphase System,SolarWorld Panels, QuickMountPV- ALL USA!!
2014 Rav4 "SuperRav"with JdeMO (CHAdeMO)
2015 MS-70D

edatoakrun
Posts: 4248
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:23 pm

JasonA wrote:
...Nissan just keeps getting worse and worse at handling things...

Can we get back on-topic, please?

Edited my mis-quote.

Sorry for my mistake.
Last edited by edatoakrun on Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
no condition is permanent

JasonA
Posts: 560
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 10:16 am
Delivery Date: 04 May 2013
Location: Sylmar, CA

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:51 pm

Thank you soooooo much for mis-quoting and putting words in my mouth. How mature of you. You want to want to go back on topic that's fine..

Point is... they've already lost the game and GM/Tesla will be way ahead in the industry and Carlos G. is trying to hit the "economy" side of the EV market and with how bad they have screwed over the current owners... NO ONE is looking back.

How many of us Gen 1 Leaf owners is saying "ooohhhh awwww"

Everyone is moving on to bigger and better things.. See ya.
2012 10kw Dual LQ cooled Brusa powered Leaf "Astro"
13kw Enphase System,SolarWorld Panels, QuickMountPV- ALL USA!!
2014 Rav4 "SuperRav"with JdeMO (CHAdeMO)
2015 MS-70D

SageBrush
Posts: 681
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:10 am

JasonA wrote:Carlos G. is trying to hit the "economy" side of the EV market
At over $30k for a new car that all too often has lost 1/3rd of it's range within 2-3 years ?

I expect to be very happy with my used LEAF at $8,300 retail before tax credits but I would not buy a new LEAF for over $30k just from the value standpoint; and compared to a $35k Tesla M3 -- well, Nissan has some thinking to do.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

Dooglas
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:08 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2017
Leaf Number: 314779
Location: Oregon City, OR

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:18 pm

SageBrush wrote:I expect to be very happy with my used LEAF at $8,300 retail before tax credits but I would not buy a new LEAF for over $30k just from the value standpoint; and compared to a $35k Tesla M3 -- well, Nissan has some thinking to do.
No doubt about it. A used Leaf is a heck of a good buy right now. For that matter, a brand new 30 kWh Leaf for under $20,000 with current rebates and discounts is also a lot of EV for the money. For now (and for quite a while), a Tesla 3 is not a real alternative. We are talking something like 1-2 years longer and a price that will certainly be above $35k for the new Tesla. What you can buy now and what someone is hyping for some other time don't make very good comparisons with one another. After all, Nissan is hyping new vehicles for 2018 as well.
2013 Leaf SV - lease ended, 2016 Leaf S30

SageBrush
Posts: 681
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:14 am

Dooglas wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I expect to be very happy with my used LEAF at $8,300 retail before tax credits but I would not buy a new LEAF for over $30k just from the value standpoint; and compared to a $35k Tesla M3 -- well, Nissan has some thinking to do.
No doubt about it. A used Leaf is a heck of a good buy right now. For that matter, a brand new 30 kWh Leaf for under $20,000 with current rebates and discounts is also a lot of EV for the money. For now (and for quite a while), a Tesla 3 is not a real alternative. We are talking something like 1-2 years longer and a price that will certainly be above $35k for the new Tesla. What you can buy now and what someone is hyping for some other time don't make very good comparisons with one another. After all, Nissan is hyping new vehicles for 2018 as well.
Elon Musk has said that the base Tesla 3 will be $35k *before* tax credits and that production is slated to begin late 2017. I agree that most orders will not fill before 2018 but I'll tell you this: if I had to choose between a 30 kWh LEAF now or waiting 12-18 months to see if a Tesla is available, I would not have a difficult choice. I would wait, and end up with a Tesla or a very discounted LEAF. Either way a new LEAF would not be a purchase choice -- which was the main point of my argument.

I tried to estimate how much money Nissan loses on each lease that is eventually auctioned for around $6000. Even considering CARB ZEV credits, the best I came up with was -- a lot. I figured they collect 10k from the lease, 6k from the auction and 5k from the CARB credit. That is no way forward for Nissan's EV adventure. I know I sound like a merchant of doom and gloom. Apologies to all who want to see the EV space expand but I am pessimistic with regards to Nissan unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat that starts with much improved battery cooling tech.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

powersurge
Posts: 585
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:24 am
Delivery Date: 06 Dec 2014
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:24 pm

I think that many of us are too worried at what new "goodies" we will be able to soon buy and are forgetting the dollars and "sense" of the Leaf...

I think the whole car industry has invested ZERO in promoting electric cars up to now. Anybody reading this does not count in the group of drivers because we chose to educate ourselves about the Leaf and other EV cars. Most people I talk to about my Leaf did not even know that there are EVs besides the Tesla. On TV or radio, I have seen ZERO Nissan commercials on how great the Leaf or other EVs are... And also, If you a lucky, a typical Nissan dealer has maybe two in stock. Why? Because the car companies do not want to slit their own throats and indirectly lower the sales of their bread and butter ICE SUVs.. Some folks think that Nissan LOSES money on the Leaf, but no one knows, because Nissan may be "quietly" getting Billions on Tax or political money by producing the nominal number of EVs.

Car companies are quietly offering EVs to customers that see them a cool toys. Others see them as I do, technological marvels. Yes, the prices on used Leafs is low, but a new Leaf can only cost "out of pocket" about $20k. After about 4-5 years, Leafs are selling at around $8-10k. That is depreciation of about 50%, which is about average for any car. I saw a website that says typical depreciation of any car is 63% after 5 years. So the Leaf "out of pocket" depreciation is typical. (Also, to reply to another writer, you DO NOT get a tax credit on a used Leaf, only to the original owner).

Finally, I seem to hear that people are constantly looking for the next cool EV to come out. That is like a person that buys a $1000 LED TV today, and is worried that next year, they will sell an even bigger one for the same price!! Who cares? If you are hot for a Leaf, buy a Leaf, and use it starting today... When higher capacity (not necessarily better) cars come out in the next few years, your current Leaf will still be running, and still be valuable to you. It will take you where you want to go every day you own it for next to nothing. The only negative thing you would have by keeping an old Leaf would be that instead of charging every week, you still have to charge it every day. Trust me folks, from an old car guy--- cars do not change, and they don't get any better in the period of 5-10 years. And you are saving tons of money every time you drive it. I expect to be driving my Leaf (which will be a collectors item as one of the first EVs) in 15-20 years. All it will cost me is a few thousand for the replacement battery every 8-10 years... Cheep... Hey, maybe in 20 years, I will sell my Leaf for $20K and the car will have cost me nothing!!

webeleafowners
Posts: 280
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:37 pm
Delivery Date: 06 Oct 2015
Location: Okanagan Valley British Columbia

Re: Gen 2 LEAF AND a new Fiat Chrysler BEV to be announced at CES on 1/5/2017?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:52 pm

powersurge wrote:I think that many of us are too worried at what new "goodies" we will be able to soon buy and are forgetting the dollars and "sense" of the Leaf...

I think the whole car industry has invested ZERO in promoting electric cars up to now. Anybody reading this does not count in the group of drivers because we chose to educate ourselves about the Leaf and other EV cars. Most people I talk to about my Leaf did not even know that there are EVs besides the Tesla. On TV or radio, I have seen ZERO Nissan commercials on how great the Leaf or other EVs are... And also, If you a lucky, a typical Nissan dealer has maybe two in stock. Why? Because the car companies do not want to slit their own throats and indirectly lower the sales of their bread and butter ICE SUVs.. Some folks think that Nissan LOSES money on the Leaf, but no one knows, because Nissan may be "quietly" getting Billions on Tax or political money by producing the nominal number of EVs.

Car companies are quietly offering EVs to customers that see them a cool toys. Others see them as I do, technological marvels. Yes, the prices on used Leafs is low, but a new Leaf can only cost "out of pocket" about $20k. After about 4-5 years, Leafs are selling at around $8-10k. That is depreciation of about 50%, which is about average for any car. I saw a website that says typical depreciation of any car is 63% after 5 years. So the Leaf "out of pocket" depreciation is typical. (Also, to reply to another writer, you DO NOT get a tax credit on a used Leaf, only to the original owner).

Finally, I seem to hear that people are constantly looking for the next cool EV to come out. That is like a person that buys a $1000 LED TV today, and is worried that next year, they will sell an even bigger one for the same price!! Who cares? If you are hot for a Leaf, buy a Leaf, and use it starting today... When higher capacity (not necessarily better) cars come out in the next few years, your current Leaf will still be running, and still be valuable to you. It will take you where you want to go every day you own it for next to nothing. The only negative thing you would have by keeping an old Leaf would be that instead of charging every week, you still have to charge it every day. Trust me folks, from an old car guy--- cars do not change, and they don't get any better in the period of 5-10 years. And you are saving tons of money every time you drive it. I expect to be driving my Leaf (which will be a collectors item as one of the first EVs) in 15-20 years. All it will cost me is a few thousand for the replacement battery every 8-10 years... Cheep... Hey, maybe in 20 years, I will sell my Leaf for $20K and the car will have cost me nothing!!


Your last paragraph pretty much summed it up for us. We are a two EV family now. No more ICE vehicles. (well except for the motorhome) We have a short range smart ED without about 120 usable KM of range although 140 isn't much of a stretch. We RARELY use anywhere close to that except the odd Sunday drive that seems to stretch itself out. Our other vehicle is a new 2016 Leaf SV 30 KW. We thought about weighting fore a longer range EV but, really, when would we use it. It would just cost us extra for more range we rarely need. If we need to go further our province has a pretty good CHADEMO system and lots of level 2 charging. We have friends with a 30 KW leaf and for them 200 KM of range in and around our valley is routinely achievable. Highways are posted at mostly 90 or 100 KMH. Most of the time it is slower. There is no such a thing as straight highway driving in these parts. It is at worst 50 50 city highway. A lot of folks both on and off line told us to get a Bolt or a Tesla 3 or the new ford focus with longer range etc ot the egolf. Thing is, none of those really exist right now or are simply not sold within 500 KMH of us so...they may as well be vapor ware. Besides, the leaf is pretty cheap, and after driving all the competition, (with the exception of the Bolt and the non existent Tesla 3) I prefer the leaf to all of them. Our cars seem to last us about 10 years. Then time for new technology. Besides, I figure the bugs are mostly worked out of a leaf after 6 years of production. :) Honestly a 2017 453 smart ED was on the short list but Angela needs four seats this time around for extended family reasons.
2015 Smart Electric Drive convertible.
2016 Nissan Leaf SV 30KW
EV only Family...well except for the big diesel motorhome. :shock:

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