GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1489
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:38 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:
That will surprise the people who have actually ordered Bolts to be built in the next few weeks.


True in pockets of the US and Europe, the Bolt will slowly become available. World wide, Nissan still sells plenty of Leafs in areas that will not get competition for almost a year (if not more). So it looks to me like they are milking their current design in those markets, while taking a little extra time on Leaf 2.0. I hope this means that they realized they have to meet or beat the Bolt/Model III with the Leaf 2.0, even if they take a while to get there. A 40kWh / 150-mile Leaf will not cut it in 2018.


Based on recent sales and pricing of the 30kwh leaf, if they can sell the 40kwh for ~$22k out the door, it will do just fine! Not everyone needs a 200-mile EV, and a 150-mile leaf is actually fine for long distance traveling for those with young kids or small bladders.


Fair enough. I'm coming around to the business case of a ~$20k / ~125+mile BEV. They may actually be able to sell more units of these than GM can the Bolt. Who knows.

It won't do for me, at least any better than my current $23k (new, after incentives) / 73-mile 2012 Leaf. Unless/until DCQC exists within 125 miles of me (it doesn't today). I just don't do more than 2-3 trips/year between 73 and 125 miles. But I do plenty that are 250-350 miles. And there are DCQC within 150 miles, along those routes. I try not to get too hung up on my own needs/desires but let's be honest - it's impossible not to.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

Durandal
Posts: 249
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:09 pm

A 150 mile Leaf is what I would call a reasonable commuter car. Right now the Leaf is a semi-reasonable commuter car. It's good only for when you know exactly how many miles you're going to have to drive, but anything outside of that realm is challenging. So I get 60-65 miles range when driving 45 miles with my Leaf, brand new it would be 80 or whatever. 20 miles each way for my commute means 40 miles, with a cushion of 20 miles. That's OK, it leaves me with an extra 10-15 miles of errands I can run, but that's about it. 10-15 miles isn't much, honestly for spontaneous travel. That's the big problem, is that it takes any possible spontaneity out of your day. If work decides I need to drive to another town 2 hours away because of an equipment failure, I will first have to drive home, then get in my ICE car and drive out there. Pretty much a PITA. With 150 mile range, I could actually accomplish that, assuming there was a place to plug in at my destination.

So I think a 150 mile range Leaf would still have a place, but only if the price point is substantially less than the Bolt. If it's only a few thousand less, I think they'll have few takers beyond those who are scared of the Chevy brand name.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf, and a Tesla Model 3 reservation expected to receive in late 2018.

LeftieBiker
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Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:30 pm

You aren't addressing the current 107 mile Leaf (probably more like 100 miles for the S30.)
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

Dooglas
Posts: 144
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:08 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2017
Leaf Number: 314779
Location: Oregon City, OR

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:35 pm

Durandal wrote: I think a 150 mile range Leaf would still have a place, but only if the price point is substantially less than the Bolt. If it's only a few thousand less, I think they'll have few takers beyond those who are scared of the Chevy brand name.
I think you make an excellent point when you add price into the discussion. Some manufacturers, and many posters on this site, approach the question as if cutting edge capabilities is the only answer. For most of us, useful capabilities at a modest price is the real point. I will never own a Tesla S or even a BMW i3, even though I might like to. I own an S30 Leaf. The OTD price was less than half that of a Bolt, and it does what I need it to do. A 240 mile EV does not drive everything else out of the market. Now a 240 mile EV at $20,000....................
2013 Leaf SV - lease ended, 2016 Leaf S30

DaveinOlyWA
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Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:52 am

LeftieBiker wrote:You aren't addressing the current 107 mile Leaf (probably more like 100 miles for the S30.)


in bad weather, I am getting 90 miles. in Winter weather (normalized) its like 100. In Summer it will be a breeze to do 120.

I realistically want a "weekend" car. 150ish miles is enough. I'd rather support the inevitable public charging network over spending thousands for battery I might use a few times a year.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles. 2016 S30; 16,015 miles. 363 GIDs, Ahr 81.90, Hx; 98.25% kwh 28.1 QCs 141, L2's 170
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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jhm614
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Leaf Number: 000493
Location: Arlington, TX

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:03 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:I realistically want a "weekend" car. 150ish miles is enough. I'd rather support the inevitable public charging network over spending thousands for battery I might use a few times a year.

So is that 40 kWh? 45 kWh? Probably 40 with aero improvements does it. The only benefit of a 60 kWh is longevity - having the 150 miles for more years. Not an issue for leases but (hopefully) it will eventually make financial sense to buy EVs
2011 Brilliant Silver SL - 105,000 gasoline free miles so far.
4BL: 06/29/13 @ 27 months, 43,520 miles, 42.56 Ahr. New 12 bar battery: 09/09/13
4BLx2:12/31/16 @ 69 months, 99,475 miles, 42.99 Ahr.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1489
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:46 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:I realistically want a "weekend" car. 150ish miles is enough. I'd rather support the inevitable public charging network over spending thousands for battery I might use a few times a year.


I feel almost the same way. Except that here in Upstate NY, the public charging network is anything but "inevitable". If the network was robust, and where I need it, then 150 miles would do fine. But it's not now, and possibly never will be.

I will be looking for a 50+kWh battery with 200+ miles of range for my next EV. It will work for me when new. The question is, as the battery degrades, will the public charging networks fill in enough to compensate? One might hope, but it's hardly guaranteed.

Obviously conditions are very different in the PNW.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

craig
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:30 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 340162
Location: northern Utah

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:02 am

TomT wrote:seven year recycle rate... What the hell is wrong with Nissan?! One wonders if we will actually see a model 3 before we see a new Leaf... ;)

RegGuheert wrote:So the main change is they eliminated the 24-kWh battery from the S trim level? If that's it, they can expect to sell very few MY2017 LEAFs.


You might well ask; "What the hell is wrong with us?" that we expect auto manufacturers to completely redesign a car every two years. Can't you see that this is one of the main factors keeping the cost of new cars so high? Fer cryin' out loud give them a chance to amortise their tooling costs.
I would bet money that the vast majority of folks clamoring for the 200 mile range rarely drive more than forty miles a day. The advertisers have made them think that they need a 200 mile range, and they have swallowed the bait.
2005 Honda Insight (sold)
2014 Smart ED (sold)
2014 Leaf S with QC
23,000 miles, 12 bars
charged with CC LCS-25

craig
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:30 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 340162
Location: northern Utah

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:06 am

rmay635703 wrote:It's because trump won, they likely assume that the bolt will huh Cali and be a compliance car for a long time.


This likely has nothing to do with the outcome of the election. Such marketing/design/manufacturing decisions are made at least a year in advance, when no one had any idea who would be our next president.
2005 Honda Insight (sold)
2014 Smart ED (sold)
2014 Leaf S with QC
23,000 miles, 12 bars
charged with CC LCS-25

Moof
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:11 pm
Leaf Number: 004023
Location: Beaverton, OR

Re: 2017 MY Nissan LEAF

Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:47 am

craig wrote:
TomT wrote:seven year recycle rate... What the hell is wrong with Nissan?! One wonders if we will actually see a model 3 before we see a new Leaf... ;)

RegGuheert wrote:So the main change is they eliminated the 24-kWh battery from the S trim level? If that's it, they can expect to sell very few MY2017 LEAFs.

You might well ask; "What the hell is wrong with us?" that we expect auto manufacturers to completely redesign a car every two years. Can't you see that this is one of the main factors keeping the cost of new cars so high? Fer cryin' out loud give them a chance to amortise their tooling costs.
I would bet money that the vast majority of folks clamoring for the 200 mile range rarely drive more than forty miles a day. The advertisers have made them think that they need a 200 mile range, and they have swallowed the bait.


Our 2011 with 10 bars currently would barely go 40 miles in our snowy cold temps. We can't get to the airport and back (50 mile round trip) without a charging session. Over the summer we hit LBW several miles from home under ideal conditions.

200 mile range really means about 120 miles guaranteed year round with a modest amount of degradation. Our next car will likely be a hybrid or a PHEV unless we can get a used model 3 at that point. Our Leaf makes a great commuter car for my 15 mile round trip, but I bike almost exclusively now. It also makes a great "grocery getter" for my stay-at-home wife, but we cannot be without a gasser as a backup. When our '04 Focus dies it will likely be replaced by a used Prius or similar. When the Leaf dies it will likely not be replaced. Only a Tesla EV has the promise of range and charging network to cover our needs without a backup gasser.
2011 Cayenne Red bought used with 30k miles, manufacture data of 5/2011
42k miles 82% SOH 11 bars 218 GIDs at full charge
Running with Michelin Premier A/S with 42 psi for 10k miles

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