40kWh pack speculation/what do we know?

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Nubo

Well-known member
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May 28, 2010
Messages
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Location
Vallejo, CA
Here's the one thing giving me pause re: 2018 LEAF:
2011 24kWh pack - serious degradation issues
2015 24kWh pack - significant improvement
2016 30kWh pack - degradation issues resurface

So, what was done to increase from 24 to 30kWh, and why did that lead to more battery problems?
- different chemistry?
- Thinner separators, etc?
- why wasn't the "Lizard" property carried forward?

What else could have been done to increase density that also decreased durability?

And, how does that bode for the 40kWh pack? MORE of the same compromises that led to problems with 30kWh pack?

My main worry is having the 40kWh pack be a product of "Go Fever" in the same way the original pack seemed to have been, sacrificing longevity to meet a date and/or capacity spec.
 
I'm assuming substantial degradation. Since I only need 100 miles of solid real world range, the 40kwh pack would work fine for me even with that degradation. Others will want to either lease only or wait for the 60kwh pack.
 
I agree with your concerns, Nubo.
Nubo said:
And, how does that bode for the 40kWh pack? MORE of the same compromises that led to problems with 30kWh pack?
One possibility is that they may have moved from an NMC622 cathode in the 30 kWh battery to an NMC811 cathode in the 40 kWh battery. Such a move would provide additional capacity while being a less-stable chemistry. This is PURELY speculation on my part.

(For those unfamiliar with the terminology, here is a post with some links on this topic.)
 
RegGuheert said:
I agree with your concerns, Nubo.
Nubo said:
And, how does that bode for the 40kWh pack? MORE of the same compromises that led to problems with 30kWh pack?
One possibility is that they may have moved from an NMC622 cathode in the 30 kWh battery to an NMC811 cathode in the 40 kWh battery. Such a move would provide additional capacity while being a less-stable chemistry. This is PURELY speculation on my part.

(For those unfamiliar with the terminology, here is a post with some links on this topic.)

But would a chemistry change alone provide the additional 30% increase in Ahrs needed for the 40kWh battery?
 
What do we *know* ? Squat. What should we expect given prior history and that they haven't moved into the guilded age of EVs and added TMS? Another degrading POS.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I'm assuming substantial degradation. Since I only need 100 miles of solid real world range, the 40kwh pack would work fine for me even with that degradation. Others will want to either lease only or wait for the 60kwh pack.
30% degradation
30% winter range loss

Works out 0.7*0.7 = 50% of nameplate without any buffer
 
I make it 90 miles in Winter with 30% capacity lost, which would be fine, especially as I would be leasing the car. 30% isn't likely to happen until my lease is almost over.
 
lorenfb said:
But would a chemistry change alone provide the additional 30% increase in Ahrs needed for the 40kWh battery?
One of the articles included in the link I provided indicates that one manufacturer has achieved a 25% increase in capacity and a reduction in manufacturing cost by moving from NMC622 to NMC811:
SK Innovation said:
SK innovation considers that their old battery cells were enough to provide a 400 km range, while the new cells represent a 25 percent increase (100 km) to 500 km.
 
RegGuheert said:
lorenfb said:
But would a chemistry change alone provide the additional 30% increase in Ahrs needed for the 40kWh battery?
One of the articles included in the link I provided indicates that one manufacturer has achieved a 25% increase in capacity and a reduction in manufacturing cost by moving from NMC622 to NMC811:
SK Innovation said:
SK innovation considers that their old battery cells were enough to provide a 400 km range, while the new cells represent a 25 percent increase (100 km) to 500 km.

The South Korean battery cell maker, SK innovation announced that its new NCM 811 cells will be available this December. First for battery storage systems, then in third quarter of 2018, for electric vehicles.

Yes, we'll have to wait and see if it becomes reality.
 
lorenfb said:
The South Korean battery cell maker, SK innovation announced that its new NCM 811 cells will be available this December. First for battery storage systems, then in third quarter of 2018, for electric vehicles.
Yes, we'll have to wait and see if it becomes reality.
Agreed. We do know that LG Chem is planning to supply their NCM811 cell for the 2019 LEAF. What we don't know, and what I am speculating about, is the possibility that some other vendor is supplying similar 811 cells for the 2018 LEAF. But I could be completely off-base here.
 
RegGuheert said:
lorenfb said:
The South Korean battery cell maker, SK innovation announced that its new NCM 811 cells will be available this December. First for battery storage systems, then in third quarter of 2018, for electric vehicles.
Yes, we'll have to wait and see if it becomes reality.
Agreed. We do know that LG Chem is planning to supply their NCM811 cell for the 2019 LEAF. What we don't know, and what I am speculating about, is the possibility that some other vendor is supplying similar 811 cells for the 2018 LEAF. But I could be completely off-base here.

If the technology is 'there', surely someone will capitalize on it.
 
So I just had an interesting conversation with a Nissan sales rep (part of the 2018 leaf sales force), and she wasn't aware of a warranty against capacity degradation (only the 8y defect warranty) on the 2018 leaf. Also, there's no 80% charge limiter either, unless you have Nissan Connect (no different from current owners).

So (speculation!) worse case scenario is that 40kwh leaf owners will be SOL if their battery degrades rapidly due to heat/poor-battery-management. Was the lack of a capacity warranty already known?
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
... Was the lack of a capacity warranty already known?
I'm confident there will be a warranty against degradation, but it will be meaningless like the current one, which says 9 bars , and Nissan gets to define and redefine what 9 bars means.
 
DanCar said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
... Was the lack of a capacity warranty already known?
I'm confident there will be a warranty against degradation, but it will be meaningless like the current one, which says 9 bars , and Nissan gets to define and redefine what 9 bars means.

I hope so. But 2018 Leaf sales rep does NOT know of one. I'm waiting to see an explicit warranty claim. The bolt has an explicit 60% capacity degradation warranty, while Tesla does NOT warrant against capacity degradation.

On a positive side, from a spy shot of the 2018 leaf's dash console, they've done away with the "bars" of battery life identifier, and replaced it with something that seems to indicate a direct % of battery life. That change should make any capacity warranty less arbitrary.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
On a positive side, from a spy shot of the 2018 leaf's dash console, they've done away with the "bars" of battery life identifier, and replaced it with something that seems to indicate a direct % of battery life. That change should make any capacity warranty less arbitrary.
Though nothing prevents Nissan from changing the calculation of remaining capacity whenever they feel like it.
 
WetEV said:
LTLFTcomposite said:
guilded age of EVs

http://guildedage.net/comic/chapter-1-cover/

Wasn't sure what you meant, so I looked it up. Hmmm... Still not sure what you meant.
I presume the golden age ...
referring to batteries with a TMS perhaps
 
"Golden Age" and "Gilded Age," even though they literally mean the same thing, have different connotations. "Golden Age" refers to the best years of an era (usually named thus in retrospect), while "Gilded Age" implies corruption, especially political and business corruption.
 
LeftieBiker said:
"Golden Age" and "Gilded Age," even though they literally mean the same thing, have different connotations. "Golden Age" refers to the best years of an era (usually named thus in retrospect), while "Gilded Age" implies corruption, especially political and business corruption.
Sometimes you hear about "the second golden age" of something if it has a rebirth, but can there ever be another gilded age? Is Jeff Bezos just Henry Flagler a century later?
I'll hazard a guess nobody said hey this feels like the gilded age when it was happening, and these things are mostly recognized retrospectively.
 
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