joeriv
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2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:12 am

Having driven the 2018 I am really impressed with it. However, I wonder how long the 40 kWh battery Leaf will be available. With the 2019 coming with the 60 kWh battery and possible active cooling, I wonder if the 40 will be a one-year model. The 30s were around for only two years, so there is some precedent for "limited run" Leafs. The other possibility is the 60 kWh Leaf as a premium version alongside the 40s.

I would not be surprised to see 60 kWh in S, SV and SL trims replacing the 40 kWh version. This would be competitive with the Bolt and maybe even the Model 3. I'm inclined to hold off on a purchase until I know more about what's coming.
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:22 am

Manufacturing varying sizes of battery packs is not nearly as difficult as you seem to think it is. FYI; they still make 24 kwh packs as needed.

As far as multiple sized packs for 2019; that has been implied. If you want to wait, go for it. The 2018's might be a bit cheaper by then
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 5775 miles, 488 GIDs, 38 kwh 113.37 Ahr available, SOH 98.21, Hx 115.75
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Stanton
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:37 am

joeriv wrote:I would not be surprised to see 60 kWh in S, SV and SL trims replacing the 40 kWh version. This would be competitive with the Bolt and maybe even the Model 3. I'm inclined to hold off on a purchase until I know more about what's coming.


I would expect the 60 kWh version to be an "upgrade" for every trim...and I have no intention of buying anything smaller. I'm still working on the second (free) battery pack in my Gen 1 Leaf, which should give me plenty of time to test drive a Gen 2 (still haven't seen one "in the wild") before I would think about purchasing.
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DanCar
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:39 am

joeriv wrote:... I wonder if the 40 will be a one-year model. ...
Nissan has said they will keep the 40 kWh model around after the new Leaf+ debuts. It will be $5K cheaper than the plus. For most people that mean a lot.

mtndrew1
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:41 am

I think there’s a really strong market segment for a 150 mile EV at a bargain price point and I think Nissan would be wise to exploit that.

I could see the model hierarchy for the 2019 model year being S40, SV40, SV60, SL60. Having 150 EPA miles for real transaction prices of $27,500 is a steal in today’s market. Having a 225+ mile car with active thermal management for about $40 grand would steal many Bolt sales. Having the S40 on the bottom is sure to steal compliance car sales like Ioniq, Focus, and eGolf.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement

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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:37 am

mtndrew1 wrote:I think there’s a really strong market segment for a 150 mile EV at a bargain price point and I think Nissan would be wise to exploit that.

I could see the model hierarchy for the 2019 model year being S40, SV40, SV60, SL60. Having 150 EPA miles for real transaction prices of $27,500 is a steal in today’s market. Having a 225+ mile car with active thermal management for about $40 grand would steal many Bolt sales. Having the S40 on the bottom is sure to steal compliance car sales like Ioniq, Focus, and eGolf.


Agreed and I also think that an S60 will not happen either... at least not at first.

The better thing that seems to be happening is the range estimate is now realistic. I am actually getting over 150 miles of range and far far far from good driving weather.

Yesterday with temps ranging from 24 to 33º with heat and speeds averaging 65-70 mph for a good 50-60 miles, I was on pace to hit about 144 miles

FYI; GOM is working better...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 5775 miles, 488 GIDs, 38 kwh 113.37 Ahr available, SOH 98.21, Hx 115.75
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RegGuheert
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:49 pm

joeriv wrote:However, I wonder how long the 40 kWh battery Leaf will be available. With the 2019 coming with the 60 kWh battery and possible active cooling, I wonder if the 40 will be a one-year model. The 30s were around for only two years, so there is some precedent for "limited run" Leafs.
I agree that the 40-kWh LEAF looks like a very limited-run product. AESC (now owned by LG Chem) makes that battery and I wonder if this chemistry will be around once the 60-kWh version comes out.

Based on the degradation rates we have seen with the 30-kWh LEAF batteries, I won't be surprised if the 40-kWh chemistry is even worse. The 60-kWh version uses 811 NCM from LG Chem, which, in principle, is less tolerant of high temperatures than the 622 used in the 40-kWh version. So it may be true that 811 MUST have TMS in order to have any reasonable battery life.

I'm also wondering if Nissan going with a turnkey electric drive from LG Chem including battery, charger, inverter and DC-DC converter like GM did with the Bolt or are the upgraded electronics in the 2019 LEAF coming from Nissan.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
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LeftieBiker
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:54 pm

This is yet another reason for me to hold off on leasing another EV. I'd like to see some LeafSpy reports on the 40kwh pack after many weeks of use, first, preferably some in warmer weather. I can afford to lose maybe 30% capacity over the life of my lease, but if it looks like the rate will meet or exceed that of the 30kwh pack, no thanks.
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:00 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:This is yet another reason for me to hold off on leasing another EV. I'd like to see some LeafSpy reports on the 40kwh pack after many weeks of use, first, preferably some in warmer weather. I can afford to lose maybe 30% capacity over the life of my lease, but if it looks like the rate will meet or exceed that of the 30kwh pack, no thanks.


Prelim LS logs are not promising. First full charge was to 96.5% which was good. Signified smaller DoD but 2nd one blew thru the roof.

Not only that but over 8 KW of regen at 99% SOC! Like crazy stuff. Now could be a one off so waiting until I can gather a few weeks worth but...


Also looks like Nissan altered Bus parameters so its anyone's guess how accurate all of it is. I notice QC is not logged on OBC power any more but L2 is. All a bit strange.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 5775 miles, 488 GIDs, 38 kwh 113.37 Ahr available, SOH 98.21, Hx 115.75
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LeftieBiker
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Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:11 pm

High regen at high indicated SOC may (hopefully does) indicate that 100% indicated is not anywhere near that. Define "blew through the roof" please. Also, using SOC as the main parameter assumes a bad chemistry. If the chemistry is much improved then the high SOC is only an issue in certain circumstances.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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