2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

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joeriv

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 24, 2013
Messages
287
Location
Fairfield County CT
Having driven the 2018 I am really impressed with it. However, I wonder how long the 40 kWh battery Leaf will be available. With the 2019 coming with the 60 kWh battery and possible active cooling, I wonder if the 40 will be a one-year model. The 30s were around for only two years, so there is some precedent for "limited run" Leafs. The other possibility is the 60 kWh Leaf as a premium version alongside the 40s.

I would not be surprised to see 60 kWh in S, SV and SL trims replacing the 40 kWh version. This would be competitive with the Bolt and maybe even the Model 3. I'm inclined to hold off on a purchase until I know more about what's coming.
 
Manufacturing varying sizes of battery packs is not nearly as difficult as you seem to think it is. FYI; they still make 24 kwh packs as needed.

As far as multiple sized packs for 2019; that has been implied. If you want to wait, go for it. The 2018's might be a bit cheaper by then
 
joeriv said:
I would not be surprised to see 60 kWh in S, SV and SL trims replacing the 40 kWh version. This would be competitive with the Bolt and maybe even the Model 3. I'm inclined to hold off on a purchase until I know more about what's coming.

I would expect the 60 kWh version to be an "upgrade" for every trim...and I have no intention of buying anything smaller. I'm still working on the second (free) battery pack in my Gen 1 Leaf, which should give me plenty of time to test drive a Gen 2 (still haven't seen one "in the wild") before I would think about purchasing.
 
joeriv said:
... I wonder if the 40 will be a one-year model. ...
Nissan has said they will keep the 40 kWh model around after the new Leaf+ debuts. It will be $5K cheaper than the plus. For most people that mean a lot.
 
I think there’s a really strong market segment for a 150 mile EV at a bargain price point and I think Nissan would be wise to exploit that.

I could see the model hierarchy for the 2019 model year being S40, SV40, SV60, SL60. Having 150 EPA miles for real transaction prices of $27,500 is a steal in today’s market. Having a 225+ mile car with active thermal management for about $40 grand would steal many Bolt sales. Having the S40 on the bottom is sure to steal compliance car sales like Ioniq, Focus, and eGolf.
 
mtndrew1 said:
I think there’s a really strong market segment for a 150 mile EV at a bargain price point and I think Nissan would be wise to exploit that.

I could see the model hierarchy for the 2019 model year being S40, SV40, SV60, SL60. Having 150 EPA miles for real transaction prices of $27,500 is a steal in today’s market. Having a 225+ mile car with active thermal management for about $40 grand would steal many Bolt sales. Having the S40 on the bottom is sure to steal compliance car sales like Ioniq, Focus, and eGolf.

Agreed and I also think that an S60 will not happen either... at least not at first.

The better thing that seems to be happening is the range estimate is now realistic. I am actually getting over 150 miles of range and far far far from good driving weather.

Yesterday with temps ranging from 24 to 33º with heat and speeds averaging 65-70 mph for a good 50-60 miles, I was on pace to hit about 144 miles

FYI; GOM is working better...
 
joeriv said:
However, I wonder how long the 40 kWh battery Leaf will be available. With the 2019 coming with the 60 kWh battery and possible active cooling, I wonder if the 40 will be a one-year model. The 30s were around for only two years, so there is some precedent for "limited run" Leafs.
I agree that the 40-kWh LEAF looks like a very limited-run product. AESC (now owned by LG Chem) makes that battery and I wonder if this chemistry will be around once the 60-kWh version comes out.

Based on the degradation rates we have seen with the 30-kWh LEAF batteries, I won't be surprised if the 40-kWh chemistry is even worse. The 60-kWh version uses 811 NCM from LG Chem, which, in principle, is less tolerant of high temperatures than the 622 used in the 40-kWh version. So it may be true that 811 MUST have TMS in order to have any reasonable battery life.

I'm also wondering if Nissan going with a turnkey electric drive from LG Chem including battery, charger, inverter and DC-DC converter like GM did with the Bolt or are the upgraded electronics in the 2019 LEAF coming from Nissan.
 
This is yet another reason for me to hold off on leasing another EV. I'd like to see some LeafSpy reports on the 40kwh pack after many weeks of use, first, preferably some in warmer weather. I can afford to lose maybe 30% capacity over the life of my lease, but if it looks like the rate will meet or exceed that of the 30kwh pack, no thanks.
 
LeftieBiker said:
This is yet another reason for me to hold off on leasing another EV. I'd like to see some LeafSpy reports on the 40kwh pack after many weeks of use, first, preferably some in warmer weather. I can afford to lose maybe 30% capacity over the life of my lease, but if it looks like the rate will meet or exceed that of the 30kwh pack, no thanks.

Prelim LS logs are not promising. First full charge was to 96.5% which was good. Signified smaller DoD but 2nd one blew thru the roof.

Not only that but over 8 KW of regen at 99% SOC! Like crazy stuff. Now could be a one off so waiting until I can gather a few weeks worth but...


Also looks like Nissan altered Bus parameters so its anyone's guess how accurate all of it is. I notice QC is not logged on OBC power any more but L2 is. All a bit strange.
 
High regen at high indicated SOC may (hopefully does) indicate that 100% indicated is not anywhere near that. Define "blew through the roof" please. Also, using SOC as the main parameter assumes a bad chemistry. If the chemistry is much improved then the high SOC is only an issue in certain circumstances.
 
mtndrew1 said:
I think there’s a really strong market segment for a 150 mile EV at a bargain price point and I think Nissan would be wise to exploit that.

I could see the model hierarchy for the 2019 model year being S40, SV40, SV60, SL60. Having 150 EPA miles for real transaction prices of $27,500 is a steal in today’s market. Having a 225+ mile car with active thermal management for about $40 grand would steal many Bolt sales. Having the S40 on the bottom is sure to steal compliance car sales like Ioniq, Focus, and eGolf.
In today's market yes it would be a steal, but other manufacturers are finally starting to get in on the EV market, so I would expect within 2-3 years the norm will be 300+ mile cars with charging times of 20 minutes or less on DC Fast charging for around $20,000 before any incentives.
 
Totally agree that market response will be key. If the 60 outsells the 40 by 2 or 3 to 1 I think the 40 will be short lived and we will see an S, SV and SL 60.
 
Sorry but the under $30,000 market is MUCH larger than the over $35,000 market. There are simply too many multi car households not looking for "all in one" car especially if they can drive super cheap. EVs at least makes that possible.
 
Exactly! Before I'd ever again consider a vehicle with a non-TMS pack, I want a proven track record in warm/hot climates!

LeftieBiker said:
This is yet another reason for me to hold off on leasing another EV. I'd like to see some LeafSpy reports on the 40kwh pack after many weeks of use, first, preferably some in warmer weather. I can afford to lose maybe 30% capacity over the life of my lease, but if it looks like the rate will meet or exceed that of the 30kwh pack, no thanks.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Sorry but the under $30,000 market is MUCH larger than the over $35,000 market. There are simply too many multi car households not looking for "all in one" car especially if they can drive super cheap. EVs at least makes that possible.
Absolutely! I think the cheaper 40 KWh model might actually outsell a more expensive 60 KWh model (especially if Nissan produces and stocks all dealerships with multiple units of each version, which probably won't happen). Furthermore, as we move down the price ladder into the $20s and sub-$20s, there will be even more customers. Unfortunately, there are STILL people who cannot even afford a $5000 used 2011-2013 Leaf.
 
Reddy said:
Absolutely! I think the cheaper 40 KWh model might actually outsell a more expensive 60 KWh model
240 miles range offers almost no benefit to me c/w 150 miles. I'll likely buy a 2018 LEAF because the size and tech features mean more to me than the extra range of the Bolt. No point in waiting for a longer range that I'll not need.
 
gbshaun said:
Reddy said:
Absolutely! I think the cheaper 40 KWh model might actually outsell a more expensive 60 KWh model
240 miles range offers almost no benefit to me c/w 150 miles. I'll likely buy a 2018 LEAF because the size and tech features mean more to me than the extra range of the Bolt. No point in waiting for a longer range that I'll not need.

Same here and I tend to keep vehicles a long time. Traded in our 14 year old Altima that we bought new for the Leaf. I’m thinking with the money saved over the Bolt, that will pay for my second battery some day. I would rather have (2) 40KW batteries over (1) 60KW. I live in a cooler climate plus they have longer warranty now so not as worried about the heat issues as some.
 
The biggest advantage of the larger battery is not the initial range but the range left when degraded. Plus the fact that the larger battery will see fewer charge/discharge cycles for the same mileage so will likely last longer under the same conditions. With 30% degradation, a 40 KWH battery has a range of around 100 miles while the 60 KWH battery still has a 150 mile range. May or may not make a difference to you but is a concern to a lot of people.
 
johnlocke said:
The biggest advantage of the larger battery is not the initial range but the range left when degraded. Plus the fact that the larger battery will see fewer charge/discharge cycles for the same mileage so will likely last longer under the same conditions. With 30% degradation, a 40 KWH battery has a range of around 100 miles while the 60 KWH battery still has a 150 mile range. May or may not make a difference to you but is a concern to a lot of people.
Exactly, and more so for any owner hoping to use the car in a winter climate ... or even wet roads with some head wind.

Figuring 40% battery degradation before warranty replacement and 30% range drop from adverse weather, a person considering a LEAF should buy at least 0.6x their desired trip range between charges in usable kWh.
 
As a new EV, the 40 kWh version might have a short sales life. As a used EV purchase, I'm hoping it will be substantially discounted compared to 60 kWh rivals so that I can get one for cheap, like I did my 2013 SV. Guess I'll find out in 3 or 4 years from now ;)
 
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