cmwade77
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:04 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Nov 2017

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:20 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:I think there’s a really strong market segment for a 150 mile EV at a bargain price point and I think Nissan would be wise to exploit that.

I could see the model hierarchy for the 2019 model year being S40, SV40, SV60, SL60. Having 150 EPA miles for real transaction prices of $27,500 is a steal in today’s market. Having a 225+ mile car with active thermal management for about $40 grand would steal many Bolt sales. Having the S40 on the bottom is sure to steal compliance car sales like Ioniq, Focus, and eGolf.

In today's market yes it would be a steal, but other manufacturers are finally starting to get in on the EV market, so I would expect within 2-3 years the norm will be 300+ mile cars with charging times of 20 minutes or less on DC Fast charging for around $20,000 before any incentives.

joeriv
Posts: 145
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:20 pm

Totally agree that market response will be key. If the 60 outsells the 40 by 2 or 3 to 1 I think the 40 will be short lived and we will see an S, SV and SL 60.
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12995
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:01 pm

Sorry but the under $30,000 market is MUCH larger than the over $35,000 market. There are simply too many multi car households not looking for "all in one" car especially if they can drive super cheap. EVs at least makes that possible.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 5775 miles, 488 GIDs, 38 kwh 113.37 Ahr available, SOH 98.21, Hx 115.75
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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TomT
Posts: 10601
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:09 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 000360
Location: California, now Georgia
Contact: Website

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:48 am

Exactly! Before I'd ever again consider a vehicle with a non-TMS pack, I want a proven track record in warm/hot climates!

LeftieBiker wrote:This is yet another reason for me to hold off on leasing another EV. I'd like to see some LeafSpy reports on the 40kwh pack after many weeks of use, first, preferably some in warmer weather. I can afford to lose maybe 30% capacity over the life of my lease, but if it looks like the rate will meet or exceed that of the 30kwh pack, no thanks.
59,991 miles/12 bars/289 Gids/68.54 AHr/101% SOH/101.64% Hx 7May15 w/ new Lizard (barely made the warranty).
71,770 miles/12 bars/256 Gids/59.04 AHr/88% SOH/87.92% Hx 3Mar16 at lease return.

Now driving a 2016 Volt Premier. Model 3 reserved.

Reddy
Posts: 1496
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:09 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Aug 2011
Leaf Number: 006828
Location: Pasco, WA

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:53 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:Sorry but the under $30,000 market is MUCH larger than the over $35,000 market. There are simply too many multi car households not looking for "all in one" car especially if they can drive super cheap. EVs at least makes that possible.
Absolutely! I think the cheaper 40 KWh model might actually outsell a more expensive 60 KWh model (especially if Nissan produces and stocks all dealerships with multiple units of each version, which probably won't happen). Furthermore, as we move down the price ladder into the $20s and sub-$20s, there will be even more customers. Unfortunately, there are STILL people who cannot even afford a $5000 used 2011-2013 Leaf.
Reddy
2011 SL; 9 bar, 45.80 AHr; 45,000 mi; rcv'd Aug 18, 2011
Long: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... al#p226115"
Cold: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p243033"

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gbshaun
Posts: 250
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 12:09 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Jun 2011
Leaf Number: 4390
Location: Encinitas, CA

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:22 pm

Reddy wrote:Absolutely! I think the cheaper 40 KWh model might actually outsell a more expensive 60 KWh model

240 miles range offers almost no benefit to me c/w 150 miles. I'll likely buy a 2018 LEAF because the size and tech features mean more to me than the extra range of the Bolt. No point in waiting for a longer range that I'll not need.
Res: 4/23/10, took delivery June 2011
Red SL-e - Mossy Nissan Kearny Mesa
Warranty replacement battery Feb 2016
60,000mi in 7 years

LeaferSutherland
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:26 am
Delivery Date: 22 Feb 2018

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:40 pm

gbshaun wrote:
Reddy wrote:Absolutely! I think the cheaper 40 KWh model might actually outsell a more expensive 60 KWh model

240 miles range offers almost no benefit to me c/w 150 miles. I'll likely buy a 2018 LEAF because the size and tech features mean more to me than the extra range of the Bolt. No point in waiting for a longer range that I'll not need.


Same here and I tend to keep vehicles a long time. Traded in our 14 year old Altima that we bought new for the Leaf. I’m thinking with the money saved over the Bolt, that will pay for my second battery some day. I would rather have (2) 40KW batteries over (1) 60KW. I live in a cooler climate plus they have longer warranty now so not as worried about the heat issues as some.

johnlocke
Posts: 245
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:53 pm

The biggest advantage of the larger battery is not the initial range but the range left when degraded. Plus the fact that the larger battery will see fewer charge/discharge cycles for the same mileage so will likely last longer under the same conditions. With 30% degradation, a 40 KWH battery has a range of around 100 miles while the 60 KWH battery still has a 150 mile range. May or may not make a difference to you but is a concern to a lot of people.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

SageBrush
Posts: 2493
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:03 pm

johnlocke wrote:The biggest advantage of the larger battery is not the initial range but the range left when degraded. Plus the fact that the larger battery will see fewer charge/discharge cycles for the same mileage so will likely last longer under the same conditions. With 30% degradation, a 40 KWH battery has a range of around 100 miles while the 60 KWH battery still has a 150 mile range. May or may not make a difference to you but is a concern to a lot of people.

Exactly, and more so for any owner hoping to use the car in a winter climate ... or even wet roads with some head wind.

Figuring 40% battery degradation before warranty replacement and 30% range drop from adverse weather, a person considering a LEAF should buy at least 0.6x their desired trip range between charges in usable kWh.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

alozzy
Posts: 1005
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: 2018 Leaf - One Trick Pony?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:07 pm

As a new EV, the 40 kWh version might have a short sales life. As a used EV purchase, I'm hoping it will be substantially discounted compared to 60 kWh rivals so that I can get one for cheap, like I did my 2013 SV. Guess I'll find out in 3 or 4 years from now ;)
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

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