WetEV wrote: GRA wrote:
The same way you got to 200 miles.
Assume everyone is the same.
Assume that someone needs X miles.
Multiply X by a de-rating factor.
Range needed isn't a single number but a distribution. Some with lower miles need than median, some with higher miles than needed.
The Leaf with a 24kWh battery is fine for large minority. Maybe even 10%. Probably not majority in the USA. Sure, it isn't the wonder car some wanted.
The Leaf is a very nice commuting and around town car.
No one here is assuming that everyone here is the same, only that some greater minimum range is required to justify paying tens of thousands for a car for most people.
Totally missed my point, I see. BEVs are not going to replace most cars for decades, much as ICE didn't replace horses for decades. I'm thinking about the next 1%, and the 2% after that, not yet most people. Remember when gasoline power "won" which you claim was just after 1900, the automobile was a toy for rich people. Large numbers didn't come until more than a decade later, with the Model T. My grandfather saw a gasoline motorcar for the first time in the 1920's. More than half of the horses were still working in 1940.You want the minimum range that works for most people
. Most people can't buy a BEV due to manufacturing limits. Couldn't make them if ordered. It would make more sense to make the range enough for the minority that actually buy a BEV (Or a PHEV). Cost reductions and range improvements can, will and are coming later.
, and for those who are willing to choose a BEV, that range is something over 100 miles before deductions (less if after). About 5 years ago I suggested that mainstream consumers wouldn't even consider BEVs until they had 150 miles EPA range at no more than $30k, but that was with a nationwide average price/gallon of $3.50 or higher, and while it's rising again we're still well below that. OTOH, in high gas price states like California and Hawaii we're now over $3.50/gal, so I expect to see more movement to BEVs (and longer range PHEVs) in those areas.
WetEV wrote:If you really wanted to replace the maximum number of miles with electric power, you would push for PHEVs, not BEVs. If you wanted the maximum reduction in gasoline usage for the minimum cost, you would push to make all new cars "weak hybrids", so the engine shuts down to save gasoline at stops.
Which is exactly what
I have been suggesting will be the mainstream choice for years now, as you should be aware.
WetEV wrote:A higher range BEV will appeal to fewer people because of higher cost. Yes, Tesla has shown that market exists. Look wider. A question of balance.
Real, positive change is mostly evolutionary.
"No Worries" plug-in range of slightly more than 20 miles or so would cover half of the passenger vehicle miles driven in the USA. A "No Worries" plug in range of 100 miles would cover 85%. Your trips are in the last 15%.
Do you realize you're quoting the arguments I've been making for years now back to me?
I expect most mainstream consumers will opt for PHEVs of 20+ miles AER for some years yet, but those who are more adventurous and/or are multi-car households with the ability to L2 charge may opt for BEVs. The rate of uptake and the ratio between the two is primarily dependent on gas prices, second on car prices, and third on the growth of charging infrastructure. All three will need to move simultaneously for there to be a rapid transition.
Along that line, via GCC:
Will 20 percent of Americans buy an electric for their next car? Take our Twitter poll
A new survey from AAA released last week reported that 20 percent of Americans say they plan to buy an electric car the next time they purchase a new car.
That contrasts sharply with the less than one percent of Americans who buy electric cars today.
It's not clear were the discrepancy lies, whether in range improvements for the latest electric cars, consumers who actually intend to buy electric but then can't find a model or a deal they like when they actually get to a showroom, survey error, or some other factor.
AAA said it sees growing demand every year for electric cars in its survey, and that this is especially true now that the latest models have longer ranges and the latest advanced safety features.
The AAA survey cited decreasing range anxiety and higher reliability as primary reasons that more drivers are planning to buy electric cars. Respondents also reported high interest in the latest advanced safety features, which the latest electric cars such as the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3 offer.
Among drivers who said they would not buy an electric car, lack of public charging stations was one of the main motivating factors.
Naturally, just because 20% of the survey respondents say the next car they buy will be an EV, no one should expect anywhere near that number to actually do so. i'd be extremely surprised if the actual % were as high as 10%, but that includes HEVs. The original AAA article is here: https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/05/1-in-5-us-drivers-want-electric-vehicle/