finman100
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 11, 2018 8:56 am

I'm down 21%. roughly 65 miles in good weather. 2014 SV. I haven't attempted a 70 mile trip to the coast since summer 2017. I'm ready to move on from my "72-84" miles EV. It's been great but there is better out there than a box o batteries on wheels. Affordable? sure. Long-lasting? not so much.

I was expecting degradation. not 21%. but something a bit, er, less.

I was expecting a somewhat sparse DC "fast" charging network. Maybe some additions or more stalls per location...NOTHING has improved or expanded in the Chademo arena in the 4 years here in Oregon. It's just as good (or just as sparse?) as it ever was and ever will be. THAT is another strike against the Leaf. just saying.

So, to pull this all together...yes, some people will have no problem with short range EVs, even degrading short range EVs, and a limited DC fast charging network. Yay for them! Every little bit helps...until the EV experience turns south because batteries in a box do NOT hold up very well even in good conditions. How are you convincing non-believers that this Leaf is as good as the gas car they must give up?

Some people will want more from their next EV, or ANY EV. I'm in that camp.

What say u Nissan? Can u do this?
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
46,000 miles
17.5 kWh on 100% charge (51-ish Ah), down 1 bar
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 11, 2018 9:57 am

Joe6pack wrote:This is revisionist history. To say that the LEAF could have had a 150 mile range and be affordable 8 years ago simply isn't true. This is an evolution, not a revolution. Folks on these boards like to throw around the word "disappointed", and we can all look back and say woulda, coulda, shoulda, but someone had to greenlight a billion dollar decision with the best available information. I'm not saying Ghosn called it perfectly, but I do think he did the best he could with what he had available at the time. He built what he thought the market wanted (and could afford to actually purchase). Now, we've moved on to the next phase - the next step up.

You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.


+1

Many of the early Leaf adopters wanted a revolution, and expected a ideal wonder car that could cause one.

The Leaf couldn't, didn't and doesn't live up to the expectation of a revolution. That doesn't make the best selling electric car in history a failure. It is a reasonable commuter car. It is very reliable. It is quiet and smooth. It is responsive. It is, frankly, a little boring. In a good way.

Most real change is evolutionary, not revolutionary.

I just wanted a realistic electric car. One that might start the evolution of a change from ICE to electric transportation. I could live with a shorter range. I could live with higher cost. I could live with shorter life. All within limits, of course. Commuting hit my expectations, but I had been driving an electric before I bought the Leaf. Longer trips are easier than I expected. Depending on future gasoline prices, I might even have lower cost than buying a gasoline car even without the subsidies. Battery life in a cool climate is better than I hoped for.

I have been impressed with several things I wasn't expecting about the Leaf. The largest is the joy of never needing to stop for gasoline while commuting. 10 seconds per day to plug in and unplug in the comfort of my garage is so much nicer than minutes spent at a gas station once per week. Especially when the temperature is near freezing and the rain is falling horizontally due to the wind.

I expect a lot of evolution with electric cars over the next decade. Lots of changes. The Leaf might continue to be successful or not. All electric cars today need some combination of the following: lower cost, more range, more reliable, safer, ... in short, electric cars need to evolve.

Lower cost might mean longer battery life and/or lower cost batteries. Lower cost might well compensate for shorter life.
WetEV
#49
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2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
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SageBrush
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 11, 2018 10:13 am

If Nissan can make a living selling its compromised yet expensive EV to enthusiasts living in cool climates, by all means.
The rest of the world is moving on.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GetOffYourGas
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 11, 2018 10:32 am

SageBrush wrote:If Nissan can make a living selling its compromised yet expensive EV to enthusiasts living in cool climates, by all means.
The rest of the world is moving on.


The rest of the world is not CA and the desert southwest. In fact, the rest of the world (outside of the US) loves the Leaf. It is the best selling EV ever made, and its sales are still growing.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
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GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 11, 2018 12:58 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Gasoline cars achieved mainstream acceptance in a little over a decade.


Answer depends on where and for what, and exactly how you define "achieving mainstream acceptance", but a fair answer is longer than "a little over a decade". Cars and tractors were much slower to be adopted in rural areas. Limit the focus to say Manhattan Island, NYC, NY, USA, and the transition is much sharper and earlier.

We can dance around all day with exactly when ICEs were 'introduced', but they had won out over horses and other car techs by the first decade of the 1900s. That they didn't replace all other techs (including horses) for decades is true, but we're talking about mainstream acceptance, not full replacement. The Model T's design had numerous features intended to be of value to rural residents given the lousy roads outside of cities, and they adopted it wholeheartedly for farm-to-market and town travel as well as other uses.

WetEV wrote:Battery electric cars have "achieved mainstream acceptance" in Norway with 37% of cars sold being electric. The rest of the world is taking longer.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/04/no ... facturers/

So why Norway? Incentives? Other countries had larger incentives, and much lower sales. Norway is rich? Other countries are richer, and had much lower sales. Leaf sales are about 43% of the electric share, or 16% of total sales. Not quite to Model T market share. Yet.

Image

Exactly which countries have/had large subsidies than Norway? Denmark (which subsequently reduced them)? When you eliminate taxes and thus reduce the price of a car to half what a comparable ICE costs, and then toss a bunch of perks like free parking, free ferry rides, and use of bus lanes on top of it, of course you'll see acceptance. I'd reword your claim as follows: "Battery electric cars with massive subsidies and numerous perks have achieved mainstream acceptance in Norway, but even with all of the above, almost two-thirds of customers still opt for fossil-fueled cars." Or, as I've said before, if you gave Hummers the same level of subsidies and perks in this country they'd be the best-selling vehicle. Even without all those goodies the F-150 has been #1 here for the past 35 years.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 9:04 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
SageBrush wrote:If Nissan can make a living selling its compromised yet expensive EV to enthusiasts living in cool climates, by all means.
The rest of the world is moving on.


It is the best selling EV ever made, and its sales are still growing.
And dwindling.
Wait till Model 3 reaches Europe. Game over for the the Nissan EV unless they do something I consider really, really unlikely --- like get a clue.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

MalcolmReynolds
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 10:54 am

The entry level price point for the Leaf or any EV needs to be competitive with petrol vehicles without a tax break or subsidy. Entry level and mid tier level EV vehicles need to be affordable. Most of these vehicles are driving local town/city miles so they could keep battery capacity smaller as long as there is a good, affordable, reliable charging network. You want to add subsidies to that to make them more affordable than a petrol vehicle then you have a game changer. The migration will begin.

Sure it would be great to have cars with big fast charging batteries capable of road trips etc. But until you can get the cost affordable for average people we are not going to see a shift. Again infrastructure is the game changer. The rules need to change regarding the utilities being able to offer charging stations. For communities to be able to offer charging stations.

The shift can begin if manufacturers can get the costs down. So far the definition of affordable is not what I was call affordable.
=======================================
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evnow
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 11:27 am

Joe6pack wrote:You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.


I agree with 75 miles being "adequate" for daily use.

But, there are 2 issues.

1. People generally don't buy different cars for different uses, unless you are in the top 1%. When people have multiple cars, it is usually for multiple people (or some old cars not disposed off).

2. 75 mile range needs to be "usable" all-weather range. Not from full to turtle range in summer on slow roads.

And then you have range degradation over time. So, for 75 (or 100) miles of usable all-weather freeway range ?

First, you need 75 miles from full to "battery low". This is because, once you get into "battery low" you are into range anxiety zone. So, that adds some 25 miles.

Second, we need some 20% more for freeway driving.

Third, some 30% for cold weather.

Forth, some 20 to 30% for battery degradation over time.

So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
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GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 11:42 am

evnow wrote:I agree with 75 miles being "adequate" for daily use.

But, there are 2 issues.

1. People generally don't buy different cars for different uses, unless you are in the top 1%. When people have multiple cars, it is usually for multiple people (or some old cars not disposed off).

2. 75 mile range needs to be "usable" all-weather range. Not from full to turtle range in summer on slow roads.

And then you have range degradation over time. So, for 75 (or 100) miles of usable all-weather freeway range ?

First, you need 75 miles from full to "battery low". This is because, once you get into "battery low" you are into range anxiety zone. So, that adds some 25 miles.

Second, we need some 20% more for freeway driving.

Third, some 30% for cold weather.

Forth, some 20 to 30% for battery degradation over time.

So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.

+1. I would add that many, perhaps most people also require an emergency reserve (drive to the hospital etc.) that may be considerably greater than low battery, and a lot of them would like to have at least two days of autonomy in case there's a power outage overnight (or they simply forget to charge), so they can still get to work and back and have time to make other arrangements for the following day. Not that that will help in a widespread outage for a prolonged period, but it does cover at least the more common problems.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 12:12 pm

GRA wrote:
evnow wrote:So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.

+1. I would add that many, perhaps most people also require an emergency reserve (drive to the hospital etc.) that may be considerably greater than low battery, and a lot of them would like to have at least two days of autonomy in case there's a power outage overnight (or they simply forget to charge), so they can still get to work and back and have time to make other arrangements for the following day. Not that that will help in a widespread outage for a prolonged period, but it does cover at least the more common problems.


So now we are 500 miles of nominal range. :roll:

Do I hear 1000 miles?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
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