GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 12:27 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
evnow wrote:So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.

+1. I would add that many, perhaps most people also require an emergency reserve (drive to the hospital etc.) that may be considerably greater than low battery, and a lot of them would like to have at least two days of autonomy in case there's a power outage overnight (or they simply forget to charge), so they can still get to work and back and have time to make other arrangements for the following day. Not that that will help in a widespread outage for a prolonged period, but it does cover at least the more common problems.


So now we are 500 miles of nominal range. :roll:

Do I hear 1000 miles?

If that's what it takes to get people to buy the car unless forced to (e.g. China), then that's what it takes. But how did you get from 200 to 500 miles, let alone 1,000? I consider the Bolt to have more than adequate range for two days routine use plus emergency reserve for everyone except super/mega commuters. For many 150 miles may do it, and for considerably fewer 100 may be enough. But it's got to be guaranteed range, not range before deductions.
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 4:02 pm

evnow wrote:
Joe6pack wrote:You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.



I agree with 75 miles being "adequate" for daily use.

But, there are 2 issues.

1. People generally don't buy different cars for different uses, unless you are in the top 1%. When people have multiple cars, it is usually for multiple people (or some old cars not disposed off).

2. 75 mile range needs to be "usable" all-weather range. Not from full to turtle range in summer on slow roads.

And then you have range degradation over time. So, for 75 (or 100) miles of usable all-weather freeway range ?

First, you need 75 miles from full to "battery low". This is because, once you get into "battery low" you are into range anxiety zone. So, that adds some 25 miles.

Second, we need some 20% more for freeway driving.

Third, some 30% for cold weather.

Forth, some 20 to 30% for battery degradation over time.

So, we are at 200 miles of "nominal" range.


And yet many of us have gotten along just fine with our 24kWh LEAFs for many years and thousands of miles. I might have, on occasion, wished for more range, but I never wished I had paid more.
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 12, 2018 6:17 pm

Joe6pack wrote:And yet many of us have gotten along just fine with our 24kWh LEAFs for many years and thousands of miles. I might have, on occasion, wished for more range, but I never wished I had paid more.

Yes we all did.

But that is because we are committed to (fill in the blank).

If EVs need to go from 1% market share to 10%, we need 200 mile range cars for about $25k after tax credits. It would also help if they are slightly bigger, like the camry/accord size and in compact CUV size too.

After 10% - it would be all about cutting prices and coming up in various size and form segments to beat ICE marketshare and finally send ICE to sunset.

Now - for Nissan is it a bad idea to purely go for low price EV space ? May be not. But I don't think that's the where the most volumes really are.
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sun May 13, 2018 6:18 am

GRA wrote:how did you get from 200 to 500 miles, let alone 1,000?


The same way you got to 200 miles.

Assume everyone is the same.
Assume that someone needs X miles.
Multiply X by a de-rating factor.

Range needed isn't a single number but a distribution. Some with lower miles need than median, some with higher miles than needed.

The Leaf with a 24kWh battery is fine for large minority. Maybe even 10%. Probably not majority in the USA. Sure, it isn't the wonder car some wanted.

The Leaf is a very nice commuting and around town car.



EVNOW wrote:If EVs need to go from 1% market share to 10%, we need 200 mile range cars for about $25k after tax credits. It would also help if they are slightly bigger, like the camry/accord size and in compact CUV size too.


Yes, more diversity will be needed for more market share. Pickups, 12 passenger vans, larger and smaller, and more. Along with commuting and around town car.
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sun May 13, 2018 7:43 am

WetEV wrote:The Leaf is a very nice commuting and around town car.

For my household,

Around town: yes
Commuting: Only if I inconvenience someone to use their power to recharge.

At $30k ? No way
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Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
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Joe6pack
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sun May 13, 2018 10:12 am

My blank=saving money. And that's something most people can agree on. A sub $20,000 24 kWh LEAF could almost be a free car depending on the gas mileage of your current commuter car and the distance you currently commute.

Gas was $4/gallon and my Jeep got 18mpg on my 42 mile commute back when I first leased my LEAF in 2012. Given the $7500 federal tax credit and Georgia's $5000 tax credit at the time, I was essentially able to get a new car for free as the lease payment equalled the fuel savings.

Of course, gas prices fluctuate, but I could see a lot of people coming to the same conclusion if the option were available. Right now, there is no truly affordable commuter range/2nd car EV on the market.
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sun May 13, 2018 11:23 am

Joe6pack wrote:My blank=saving money. And that's something most people can agree on. A sub $20,000 24 kWh LEAF could almost be a free car depending on the gas mileage of your current commuter car and the distance you currently commute.

Gas was $4/gallon and my Jeep got 18mpg on my 42 mile commute back when I first leased my LEAF in 2012. Given the $7500 federal tax credit and Georgia's $5000 tax credit at the time, I was essentially able to get a new car for free as the lease payment equalled the fuel savings.

Of course, gas prices fluctuate, but I could see a lot of people coming to the same conclusion if the option were available. Right now, there is no truly affordable commuter range/2nd car EV on the market.

This arithmetic only pans out for the idiots with Jeeps

Now compare to someone with a brain, who might consider a LEAF vs a Toyota Prius Prime. The latter costs under $20k in a lot of markets (I paid $17k after tax credits) and I average about 100 mpg in my non-ideal use case with commuting that is too far for either the 24 or 30 kWh LEAF. I *could* spend ~ $30k for a 40 kWh LEAF (that may require a charging stop to make my work commute after a few short years of degradation) or spend $17k for the Prime and an additional $30 a month for fuel for a car good for ~ 20 years.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sun May 13, 2018 3:48 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:how did you get from 200 to 500 miles, let alone 1,000?


The same way you got to 200 miles.

Assume everyone is the same.
Assume that someone needs X miles.
Multiply X by a de-rating factor.

Range needed isn't a single number but a distribution. Some with lower miles need than median, some with higher miles than needed.

The Leaf with a 24kWh battery is fine for large minority. Maybe even 10%. Probably not majority in the USA. Sure, it isn't the wonder car some wanted.

The Leaf is a very nice commuting and around town car.

No one here is assuming that everyone here is the same, only that some greater minimum range is required to justify paying tens of thousands for a car for most people. If you move or change jobs, a sub-100 mile car may no longer be "a very nice commuting and around town car", it may become an expensive lawn ornament, and any car so expensive yet so inflexible is a hard sell. We've had a fair number of 1st gen. BEV owners here who've experienced that inflexibility personally. Range boosts both flexibility and utility, the only question is how much is enough for a large number of people. After 7 years of experience, we know that sub-100 miles before deductions isn't enough for most people (at least, not at current prices), even for many of the far more motivated early adopters who've now moved on to longer range BEVs, switched to PHEVs or HEVs, or even gone back to ICEs.
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Mon May 14, 2018 7:13 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:how did you get from 200 to 500 miles, let alone 1,000?


The same way you got to 200 miles.

Assume everyone is the same.
Assume that someone needs X miles.
Multiply X by a de-rating factor.

Range needed isn't a single number but a distribution. Some with lower miles need than median, some with higher miles than needed.

The Leaf with a 24kWh battery is fine for large minority. Maybe even 10%. Probably not majority in the USA. Sure, it isn't the wonder car some wanted.

The Leaf is a very nice commuting and around town car.

No one here is assuming that everyone here is the same, only that some greater minimum range is required to justify paying tens of thousands for a car for most people.


Totally missed my point, I see. BEVs are not going to replace most cars for decades, much as ICE didn't replace horses for decades. I'm thinking about the next 1%, and the 2% after that, not yet most people. Remember when gasoline power "won" which you claim was just after 1900, the automobile was a toy for rich people. Large numbers didn't come until more than a decade later, with the Model T. My grandfather saw a gasoline motorcar for the first time in the 1920's. More than half of the horses were still working in 1940.

You want the minimum range that works for most people. Most people can't buy a BEV due to manufacturing limits. Couldn't make them if ordered. It would make more sense to make the range enough for the minority that actually buy a BEV (Or a PHEV). Cost reductions and range improvements can, will and are coming later.

If you really wanted to replace the maximum number of miles with electric power, you would push for PHEVs, not BEVs. If you wanted the maximum reduction in gasoline usage for the minimum cost, you would push to make all new cars "weak hybrids", so the engine shuts down to save gasoline at stops.

A higher range BEV will appeal to fewer people because of higher cost. Yes, T esla has shown that market exists. Look wider. A question of balance.

Real, positive change is mostly evolutionary.

"No Worries" plug-in range of slightly more than 20 miles or so would cover half of the passenger vehicle miles driven in the USA. A "No Worries" plug in range of 100 miles would cover 85%. Your trips are in the last 15%.

Image
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Mon May 14, 2018 4:38 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
The same way you got to 200 miles.

Assume everyone is the same.
Assume that someone needs X miles.
Multiply X by a de-rating factor.

Range needed isn't a single number but a distribution. Some with lower miles need than median, some with higher miles than needed.

The Leaf with a 24kWh battery is fine for large minority. Maybe even 10%. Probably not majority in the USA. Sure, it isn't the wonder car some wanted.

The Leaf is a very nice commuting and around town car.

No one here is assuming that everyone here is the same, only that some greater minimum range is required to justify paying tens of thousands for a car for most people.

Totally missed my point, I see. BEVs are not going to replace most cars for decades, much as ICE didn't replace horses for decades. I'm thinking about the next 1%, and the 2% after that, not yet most people. Remember when gasoline power "won" which you claim was just after 1900, the automobile was a toy for rich people. Large numbers didn't come until more than a decade later, with the Model T. My grandfather saw a gasoline motorcar for the first time in the 1920's. More than half of the horses were still working in 1940.

You want the minimum range that works for most people. Most people can't buy a BEV due to manufacturing limits. Couldn't make them if ordered. It would make more sense to make the range enough for the minority that actually buy a BEV (Or a PHEV). Cost reductions and range improvements can, will and are coming later.

Agreed, and for those who are willing to choose a BEV, that range is something over 100 miles before deductions (less if after). About 5 years ago I suggested that mainstream consumers wouldn't even consider BEVs until they had 150 miles EPA range at no more than $30k, but that was with a nationwide average price/gallon of $3.50 or higher, and while it's rising again we're still well below that. OTOH, in high gas price states like California and Hawaii we're now over $3.50/gal, so I expect to see more movement to BEVs (and longer range PHEVs) in those areas.
See below.

WetEV wrote:If you really wanted to replace the maximum number of miles with electric power, you would push for PHEVs, not BEVs. If you wanted the maximum reduction in gasoline usage for the minimum cost, you would push to make all new cars "weak hybrids", so the engine shuts down to save gasoline at stops.

Which is exactly what I have been suggesting will be the mainstream choice for years now, as you should be aware.

WetEV wrote:A higher range BEV will appeal to fewer people because of higher cost. Yes, Tesla has shown that market exists. Look wider. A question of balance.

Real, positive change is mostly evolutionary.

"No Worries" plug-in range of slightly more than 20 miles or so would cover half of the passenger vehicle miles driven in the USA. A "No Worries" plug in range of 100 miles would cover 85%. Your trips are in the last 15%.


WetEV wrote:Image

Do you realize you're quoting the arguments I've been making for years now back to me? :lol: I expect most mainstream consumers will opt for PHEVs of 20+ miles AER for some years yet, but those who are more adventurous and/or are multi-car households with the ability to L2 charge may opt for BEVs. The rate of uptake and the ratio between the two is primarily dependent on gas prices, second on car prices, and third on the growth of charging infrastructure. All three will need to move simultaneously for there to be a rapid transition.

Along that line, via GCC:
Will 20 percent of Americans buy an electric for their next car? Take our Twitter poll
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116725_will-20-percent-of-americans-buy-an-electric-for-their-next-car-take-our-twitter-poll

A new survey from AAA released last week reported that 20 percent of Americans say they plan to buy an electric car the next time they purchase a new car.

That contrasts sharply with the less than one percent of Americans who buy electric cars today.

It's not clear were the discrepancy lies, whether in range improvements for the latest electric cars, consumers who actually intend to buy electric but then can't find a model or a deal they like when they actually get to a showroom, survey error, or some other factor.

AAA said it sees growing demand every year for electric cars in its survey, and that this is especially true now that the latest models have longer ranges and the latest advanced safety features.

The AAA survey cited decreasing range anxiety and higher reliability as primary reasons that more drivers are planning to buy electric cars. Respondents also reported high interest in the latest advanced safety features, which the latest electric cars such as the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3 offer.

Among drivers who said they would not buy an electric car, lack of public charging stations was one of the main motivating factors.

Naturally, just because 20% of the survey respondents say the next car they buy will be an EV, no one should expect anywhere near that number to actually do so. i'd be extremely surprised if the actual % were as high as 10%, but that includes HEVs. The original AAA article is here: https://newsroom.aaa.com/2018/05/1-in-5-us-drivers-want-electric-vehicle/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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