jlsoaz
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Mon May 14, 2018 11:06 pm

Joe6pack wrote: This is revisionist history. To say that the LEAF could have had a 150 mile range and be affordable 8 years ago simply isn't true. [...]


Who has said that? I think you are still pretty far away from addressing the point. I won't say "my" point, because it is really Mr. Ghosn''s point. He is quoted as saying:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/04 ... issan.html

Ghosn said the companies only recently determined that 300km was the key milestone, as car owners on average drive just around 50km a day. “You could not have guessed this [result] through studies,” he said. “You had to have 500,000 [electric] cars on the ground to understand that consumers do not put autonomy on top of their concerns any more when you cross 300km.”


So, the question isn't whether the Leaf could have been made affordably at or near this range sweet spot 8 years ago. The question is whether one might have known where the sweet spot was, at that time, and worked toward it with greater speed. Instead Nissan appeared to think, incorrectly, at least for the US, that they were close enough to the sweet spot.

They compounded the matter, in my view, by erring on the side of semi-in-house battery efforts, and by seemingly being quite stubborn about this for too many years. Further illustrating at the time that they were a bit removed from understanding that they needed to evolve more quickly away from 24 kWh, if memory serves they actually floated the idea of a luxury 24 kWh Infiniti. What were they thinking?

I think they had bought too much into the idea that 24 kWh was sufficient to get them to a higher volume market than they ultimately achieved, at least in the US. On that infiniti, to make matters worse, instead of recognizing the opportunity (how about a 50-60 kWh Infiniti for $20k-$30k more than the Leaf, and some improved battery tech with better life expectancy in all conditions?... might this not have offered an interesting competitive posture to the undeniable demand for the Model S?) their Infiniti management at the time ultimately did not seem to understand the value of going electric. Oh well.

Anyway, there were people around at the time who thought Nissan was mis-judging the market particularly in that they did not move quickly enough to offer significant improvements on their 24 kWh start. How about a 2013 or 2014 Leaf with 36 kWh, or a 36 kWh option for $10k more? How long did it take them? When was the first 30 kWh Leaf.... 2016? 5 years after the compromise? I guess they thought 24 kWh was good enough for awhile? Why not even try something like what Tesla was doing, by offering a larger battery for more money?

By the time Nissan reaches the US with a ~60 kWh 2019 Leaf, if they do, they will essentially have given Chevy and Tesla a 2 year and 1.5 year lead respectively. They seem to have lost at least some of their first mover advantage. Well, I think there will still be good value in the vehicle, if they address certain matters.

addendum:

After years (decades I guess) of trying, we finally got a major auto company executive on the side of true progress and electric vehicles. He was not playing games, at least not to the degree of others. He would not only pursue BEVS, but he would do it with the idea of being responsive to market demand and trying to make a profit. However, I think the tragedy of the matter was that, having become convinced that there might be some good business in BEVS, he bought too much into certain arguments. I surmise that he bought overly much into the argument that commutes are only usually a short distance x, and so a BEV with range yx can be one where there will be demand in six figures per year. His multiplier was insufficient, IMO. He also seems to have been burdened with inferior battery technology (in terms of kWh, even though seemingly solid in safety).

I respect Mr. Ghosn. He is smart, decisive capable and many other things. A reason I leased a Leaf around 2012, even though I knew it was a bad compromise for me, and even though I suspected Mr. Ghosn was not understanding certain things, was that I guess I wanted to throw my hat in and say yes to the fact that Nissan was showing some leadership. However, this does not mean their understanding of the overall market was correct - I think at least some of us knew it was off.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/vehicle.php?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
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opinions expressed are my own

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Tue May 15, 2018 10:50 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Image

Do you realize you're quoting the arguments I've been making for years now back to me? :lol: I expect most mainstream consumers will opt for PHEVs of 20+ miles AER for some years yet, but those who are more adventurous and/or are multi-car households with the ability to L2 charge may opt for BEVs. The rate of uptake and the ratio between the two is primarily dependent on gas prices, second on car prices, and third on the growth of charging infrastructure. All three will need to move simultaneously for there to be a rapid transition.


A difference is that I don't expect a rapid transition. I'm expecting evolution, not revolution. Over 1% market share the first year just isn't the sort of thing that happens when replacing a incumbent technology. Getting to 1% market share for plug in cars in 6 years and growth at 15% a year is more realistic, and what happens next is more likely continuation of the growth, not a sudden increase to 20+% market share. Sure, there are events that might change that growth rate such as a spike or collapse in oil prices, economic events, and political things that might decrease that rate such as the impending end of subsidies. I really don't care much about the PHEV:BEV ratio. BEVs are more reliable and PHEVs (aka BEVs with training wheels) can appeal to more people.

GRA wrote:That contrasts sharply with the less than one percent of Americans who buy electric cars today.


Ah, I keep pointing out that plug in sales are more than one percent of sales in the USA. It has been that way for a year.

Total Vehicle Sales in the United States seasonally adjusted 17.5 Million annual rate in April
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

19,681 plug in vehicles sold. Annual rate of 236,172.
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Do the math.

1.3%

It's been a year. Update your ideas.

Image
WetEV
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IssacZachary
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Tue May 15, 2018 12:54 pm

LeftieBiker wrote: The Beetle was self-evidently a cheap little deathtrap. The Leaf was not. There was no way to tell by looking at the Leaf that it would lose battery life much faster than Nissan predicted. Your Leaf has lost most of its value (because of the battery issues) but has not lost most of its range. You really don't know what it's like to pay that much for a car that loses both its resale value AND its utility.

I can no longer drive it to where I need to go. I can't sell it either. Therefore it has lost its utility for me and become essentially a lawn ornament. Maybe the reasons are different, the distance to my destinations have changed more than the Leaf's range has. But still, I've noticed the range decrease in the year I've owned it. One trip that would consistently land me 20% left on the battery once I got home, even going close to highway speeds, now won't let me get home with more than 9%, even creeping along at 35mph the whole way. Sure, I may still have 11 bars. But what good is that to me now?

Yes, I see lots of people here on MNL that hate Leafs now that they've tried them out and found out how fast these batteries degrade. Sure, people are going to hate that situation. And sorry they had to be the guinea pigs. But what do you want me to do about it? Go start a rally and protest in front of Nissan dealerships that they shouldn't sell electric cars?

I feel like I'm too neutral. The Nissan haters feel like I don't hate Nissan enough. The Nissan lovers feel like I don't love Nissan enough. I don't care if a bunch of people spent too much on Nissan's money making science project. Well, maybe I do somewhat. But I've learned a lot of things I wouldn't have had they not. I would have never had the chance to drive an electric car had they not. Sure, I haven't had to charge my Leaf in over week because I hardly use it now. But for some reason I still like it. Same with my wife. After all she's been through with me hypermiling just to barely make it places and she freezing to death in the process she actually doesn't want me to sell it. It's one of those love-hate relationships you can't get over.
2013 SL SOLD :cry:
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GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Tue May 15, 2018 2:11 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Image

Do you realize you're quoting the arguments I've been making for years now back to me? :lol: I expect most mainstream consumers will opt for PHEVs of 20+ miles AER for some years yet, but those who are more adventurous and/or are multi-car households with the ability to L2 charge may opt for BEVs. The rate of uptake and the ratio between the two is primarily dependent on gas prices, second on car prices, and third on the growth of charging infrastructure. All three will need to move simultaneously for there to be a rapid transition.

A difference is that I don't expect a rapid transition.[./quote]

What would make you think that I do? After all, it's taken us 7 years to get this far, but I do expect an exponential ramp rate to kick in at some point.

WetEV wrote: I'm expecting evolution, not revolution. Over 1% market share the first year just isn't the sort of thing that happens when replacing a incumbent technology. Getting to 1% market share for plug in cars in 6 years and growth at 15% a year is more realistic, and what happens next is more likely continuation of the growth, not a sudden increase to 20+% market share. Sure, there are events that might change that growth rate such as a spike or collapse in oil prices, economic events, and political things that might decrease that rate such as the impending end of subsidies. I really don't care much about the PHEV:BEV ratio. BEVs are more reliable and PHEVs (aka BEVs with training wheels) can appeal to more people.

BEVs should be more reliable - whether they are or not depends on the particular model. What they aren't as yet is more durable, and that's critical too.

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:That contrasts sharply with the less than one percent of Americans who buy electric cars today.


Ah, I keep pointing out that plug in sales are more than one percent of sales in the USA. It has been that way for a year.

Total Vehicle Sales in the United States seasonally adjusted 17.5 Million annual rate in April
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

19,681 plug in vehicles sold. Annual rate of 236,172.
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Do the math.

1.3%

It's been a year. Update your ideas.

Image
[/quote]
My ideas are that U.S. LDV PEV sales in 2017 made up 1.16% of all U.S. LDV sales. Whether or not we can get to 2% this year remains to be seen, but given the Model 3 plus several other more acceptable PEVs (I-Pace, Kona/Niro) will be available this year, I think it's possible. And the Model 3 should finally move BEV sales alone past the 1% threshold. I also think there's a decent chance California will get to 10% EV sales this year (3% HEV, 2.5% BEV, 2.0% PHEV plus a fraction of a % from FCEVs last year).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 16, 2018 5:49 am

GRA wrote:I do expect an exponential ramp rate to kick in at some point.


What do you think a 15% growth rate is, anyway?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

GRA wrote:My ideas are that U.S. LDV PEV sales in 2017 made up 1.16% of all U.S. LDV sales. Whether or not we can get to 2% this year remains to be seen


Getting to 2% this year would be faster than exponential growth. Not impossible, but unlikely to happen, or to persist if it does happen.

Technology takes time to mature. Don't expect the world to change for better overnight.
WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 16, 2018 5:07 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:I do expect an exponential ramp rate to kick in at some point.


What do you think a 15% growth rate is, anyway?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

GRA wrote:My ideas are that U.S. LDV PEV sales in 2017 made up 1.16% of all U.S. LDV sales. Whether or not we can get to 2% this year remains to be seen


Getting to 2% this year would be faster than exponential growth. Not impossible, but unlikely to happen, or to persist if it does happen.

Technology takes time to mature. Don't expect the world to change for better overnight.

I think the Model 3 will be the primary factor in whether or not we get to 2% this year, along with rising gas prices, and the new 'CUVs' from jaguar and Hyundai/Kia. Maybe the LEAF will also make a significant contribution, but I have my doubts.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Joe6pack
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 17, 2018 6:03 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:I do expect an exponential ramp rate to kick in at some point.


What do you think a 15% growth rate is, anyway?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

GRA wrote:My ideas are that U.S. LDV PEV sales in 2017 made up 1.16% of all U.S. LDV sales. Whether or not we can get to 2% this year remains to be seen


Getting to 2% this year would be faster than exponential growth. Not impossible, but unlikely to happen, or to persist if it does happen.

Technology takes time to mature. Don't expect the world to change for better overnight.

I think the Model 3 will be the primary factor in whether or not we get to 2% this year, along with rising gas prices, and the new 'CUVs' from jaguar and Hyundai/Kia. Maybe the LEAF will also make a significant contribution, but I have my doubts.


I think it is most strongly correlated with gas prices. IMHO, most mainstream (i.e not early adopters/fanbois) will switch once it makes economic sense. We aren't there yet. EVs aren't less expensive than their ice counterparts and while they do have advantages, they also have shortcomings as well. Consumers (humans) will change in response to stress (economic stress). Otherwise, growth could simply be slow, but steady.

With China mandating EVs and Europe's natural suitability for EVs and EV friendly policies, demand for gas could actually go down which would lower prices for US consumers. Couple that with relatively EV unfriendly policies and a country more suited to gas powered cars and the growth of EVs in the US could actually lag the rest of the world.
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WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 17, 2018 6:57 am

Joe6pack wrote:I think it is most strongly correlated with gas prices. IMHO, most mainstream (i.e not early adopters/fanbois) will switch once it makes economic sense. We aren't there yet. EVs aren't less expensive than their ice counterparts and while they do have advantages, they also have shortcomings as well. Consumers (humans) will change in response to stress (economic stress). Otherwise, growth could simply be slow, but steady.


Plug in car growth rate overall seems to be correlated with gas prices. As would be expected.

Economic advantage is complex, and clearly not the only factor. EVs are less expensive than ICEs for a few people now without subsidies.

Consider the range in electric prices: From 2.7 cents per kWh to over 50 cents per kWh.
Consider the range in gasoline prices. From $0.69 per liter in Houston to $0.90 per liter in Seattle to $1.56 per liter in BC to $1.91 per liter in Italy.
Consider the range in battery lifetime for the low cost Leaf: at least 4:1 across the USA. Cool places do far better.
Consider that the fuel savings will vary based on commute. A short commute will not repay the extra cost of an EV. Too long of commute will wear out the battery faster.

Someone in a high electric cost area, with cheap gasoline prices, hot climate and a very short commute isn't going to repay the extra cost of an EV. Even once EVs are cheaper to buy than ICE, an ICE still might be cheaper to drive, if gasoline is enough cheaper than electric power..

On the other hand, someone with the ideal length commute in BC Canada, with low electric cost, high gasoline price and cool climate, is probably already cheaper to drive an EV than an ICE. So why isn't BC overrun with Leafs and other low end EVs? I don't get this, and I don't really understand hockey as well.
WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 17, 2018 2:30 pm

WetEV wrote:<snip>
On the other hand, someone with the ideal length commute in BC Canada, with low electric cost, high gasoline price and cool climate, is probably already cheaper to drive an EV than an ICE. So why isn't BC overrun with Leafs and other low end EVs? I don't get this, and I don't really understand hockey as well.

Presumably because winter range is inadequate, and Vancouver (at least) has good public transport, so a short range second car isn't needed. Volts sell well in Canada, and per GCR,
Shoppers in Canada may wait nearly a year to buy new Chevy Bolt EV
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116736_shoppers-in-canada-may-wait-nearly-a-year-to-buy-new-chevy-bolt-ev

I'd think anywhere with a cold climate is about the last place to see extensive demand for short-range BEVs (or BEVs in general), and given the long distances, lack of QC infrastructure and low population densities in much of Canada, PHEVs seem to be the rational choice to me there for now, at least outside of the more densely populated parts of Ontario/Quebec.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 17, 2018 3:38 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:On the other hand, someone with the ideal length commute in BC Canada, with low electric cost, high gasoline price and cool climate, is probably already cheaper to drive an EV than an ICE. So why isn't BC overrun with Leafs and other low end EVs? I don't get this, and I don't really understand hockey as well.

Presumably because winter range is inadequate,

Vancouver's climate is very similar to mine, cool rather than cold. The banana belt of Canada.
WetEV
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