GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 17, 2018 3:43 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:On the other hand, someone with the ideal length commute in BC Canada, with low electric cost, high gasoline price and cool climate, is probably already cheaper to drive an EV than an ICE. So why isn't BC overrun with Leafs and other low end EVs? I don't get this, and I don't really understand hockey as well.

Presumably because winter range is inadequate,

Vancouver's climate is very similar to mine, cool rather than cold. The banana belt of Canada.

When you get away from the water, what happens? Would you want to commute in from an outlying suburb, or make the trip to say Whistler (121 km / 75 mi.) to ski? Sure, you can charge along the way, by why would anyone want to put up with the hassle for such a short trip?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 17, 2018 10:10 pm

GRA wrote:When you get away from the water, what happens?

Same thing as a bit to the south. Gets a little colder and snows a lot as you get away from the water and go up in elevation.

GRA wrote:Would you want to commute in from an outlying suburb

I've commuted in Vancouver, have you?

Speeds are much slower than you might expect from California. Peak congestion has to be experienced. I had a 18km one way commute while I lived and worked there. Took almost an hour. Moved to a different apartment, also 18km away. Took 40 minutes on Skytrain, including walking. Would take over an hour to drive, which I did a few times. I had almost the same distance commute, 10 miles, in Redmond, WA. Took 25 minutes at most. Both were BL (Before Leaf) and I'd expect that Vancouver traffic has only gotten worse. While it is possible to find a commute too long for a Leaf in Vancouver BC, the time and patience needed to drive it would be extreme, unless working very odd hours. Much like a commute too long for a T esla M odel S. Sure, a minority might have one. So? Most people can not or will not sit in a car that long every day.

GRA wrote:or make the trip to say Whistler (121 km / 75 mi.) to ski?

Like a bit to the south, only a minority goes skiing.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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johnlocke
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 18, 2018 10:42 am

The reality is that Nissan made choices about battery sizing based on world wide estimates of commute distances. In particular, they focused on Japan (their home market) and Europe. Commute distances are much shorter there than in the US. Also the weather there is cooler. Even in the US commute distances are much shorter east of the Mississippi. The Leaf is ill-suited to the Southwest and the West Coast. High average temps and longer commutes are a recipe for killing the Leaf battery. Nissan has apparently decided that the level of failures of Leaf batteries due to heat is acceptable to them and simply plan to cover replacements under warranty. Battery sizing is now dictated by what the competition offers. Most people don't NEED a 60 KWH battery any more than they need a 400 mi gas tank. Both are convenient but are overkill for most people's use. Huge gas tanks were a reaction to the long gas lines in the 70's. Once installed they became a feature of new cars. What is necessary is a battery that lasts the life of the car with minimal degradation. A battery that can lose up 40% of it's capacity under warranty without triggering a replacement is unacceptable. While some loss is inevitable, the limit should be 20% or less during the warranty period (8 years/100000 mi).
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GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 18, 2018 2:22 pm

johnlocke wrote:The reality is that Nissan made choices about battery sizing based on world wide estimates of commute distances. In particular, they focused on Japan (their home market) and Europe. Commute distances are much shorter there than in the US. Also the weather there is cooler. Even in the US commute distances are much shorter east of the Mississippi. The Leaf is ill-suited to the Southwest and the West Coast. High average temps and longer commutes are a recipe for killing the Leaf battery. Nissan has apparently decided that the level of failures of Leaf batteries due to heat is acceptable to them and simply plan to cover replacements under warranty. Battery sizing is now dictated by what the competition offers. Most people don't NEED a 60 KWH battery any more than they need a 400 mi gas tank. Both are convenient but are overkill for most people's use. Huge gas tanks were a reaction to the long gas lines in the 70's. Once installed they became a feature of new cars. What is necessary is a battery that lasts the life of the car with minimal degradation. A battery that can lose up 40% of it's capacity under warranty without triggering a replacement is unacceptable. While some loss is inevitable, the limit should be 20% or less during the warranty period (8 years/100000 mi).

Although '70s gas lines might have some limited effect (my dad bought his Peugeot 504 diesel in '76, and put a 25 gal. aux. tank in the trunk in addition to the regular 15 gal. tank), I think it's due more to a combination of longer commutes and a desire to fill up no more than once a week. Virtually all ICE cars had 300+ mile range for a long time prior to that, because that was what customers wanted - enough to get them through a week of routine driving, plus 4 hour highway range for trips, although the latter's less important if you have sub-5 minute fill-ups. Even now, an ICE Fiat 500, just about the smallest 4 passenger car you can buy here, has the following specs:

27 City/33 mpg Hwy.
Range In Miles (Cty/Hwy) 283.5/346.5 mi.
Fuel Tank Capacity 10.5 gal.

A car like a Prius or VW Golf diesel would let you go two weeks between fill-ups.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 18, 2018 2:36 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:When you get away from the water, what happens?

Same thing as a bit to the south. Gets a little colder and snows a lot as you get away from the water and go up in elevation.

Uh huh, and battery capacity goes down, and heater/defroster use goes up, and rolling resistance and air density increase, all reducing the range even before degradation.

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Would you want to commute in from an outlying suburb

I've commuted in Vancouver, have you?

Speeds are much slower than you might expect from California. Peak congestion has to be experienced. I had a 18km one way commute while I lived and worked there. Took almost an hour. Moved to a different apartment, also 18km away. Took 40 minutes on Skytrain, including walking. Would take over an hour to drive, which I did a few times. I had almost the same distance commute, 10 miles, in Redmond, WA. Took 25 minutes at most. Both were BL (Before Leaf) and I'd expect that Vancouver traffic has only gotten worse. While it is possible to find a commute too long for a Leaf in Vancouver BC, the time and patience needed to drive it would be extreme, unless working very odd hours. Much like a commute too long for a T esla M odel S. Sure, a minority might have one. So? Most people can not or will not sit in a car that long every day.

No, I haven't commuted there, although I have read a fair number of studies of New Urbanism design and transportation in the area. Congested commutes sure sounds like a good reason to take public transit instead, and as I wrote, Vancouver has good public transit, along with a much denser population than is typical in the U.S. It's currently ranked 4th in pop. density in North America, behind NYC, S.F. and Mexico City, and is also ranked the most walkable city in Canada on Walkscore - biking facilities are also good. So, if a car is a pain for short trips and unneeded in most cases, why would you want one that's restricted to that?

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:or make the trip to say Whistler (121 km / 75 mi.) to ski?

Like a bit to the south, only a minority goes skiing.

See the beginning of the post.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 19, 2018 7:24 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:When you get away from the water, what happens?

Same thing as a bit to the south. Gets a little colder and snows a lot as you get away from the water and go up in elevation.

Uh huh, and battery capacity goes down, and heater/defroster use goes up, and rolling resistance and air density increase, all reducing the range even before degradation.


If you don't go there, it doesn't matter. Remember: Evolution not Revolution.


GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Would you want to commute in from an outlying suburb

I've commuted in Vancouver, have you?

Speeds are much slower than you might expect from California. Peak congestion has to be experienced. I had a 18km one way commute while I lived and worked there. Took almost an hour. Moved to a different apartment, also 18km away. Took 40 minutes on Skytrain, including walking. Would take over an hour to drive, which I did a few times. I had almost the same distance commute, 10 miles, in Redmond, WA. Took 25 minutes at most. Both were BL (Before Leaf) and I'd expect that Vancouver traffic has only gotten worse. While it is possible to find a commute too long for a Leaf in Vancouver BC, the time and patience needed to drive it would be extreme, unless working very odd hours. Much like a commute too long for a T esla M odel S. Sure, a minority might have one. So? Most people can not or will not sit in a car that long every day.

No, I haven't commuted there

Then maybe you might listen to first hand experience. Public transit is nice, relative to other places. Public transit works well for some commutes. Yes, Vancouver is a very walkable city, and nice to walk in. Some commutes can be walking. Public transit and/or walking DOES NOT work well for other commutes.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 19, 2018 3:36 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Same thing as a bit to the south. Gets a little colder and snows a lot as you get away from the water and go up in elevation.

Uh huh, and battery capacity goes down, and heater/defroster use goes up, and rolling resistance and air density increase, all reducing the range even before degradation.

If you don't go there, it doesn't matter. Remember: Evolution not Revolution.

In which case, why would anyone need a short-range car?

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:I've commuted in Vancouver, have you?

Speeds are much slower than you might expect from California. Peak congestion has to be experienced. I had a 18km one way commute while I lived and worked there. Took almost an hour. Moved to a different apartment, also 18km away. Took 40 minutes on Skytrain, including walking. Would take over an hour to drive, which I did a few times. I had almost the same distance commute, 10 miles, in Redmond, WA. Took 25 minutes at most. Both were BL (Before Leaf) and I'd expect that Vancouver traffic has only gotten worse. While it is possible to find a commute too long for a Leaf in Vancouver BC, the time and patience needed to drive it would be extreme, unless working very odd hours. Much like a commute too long for a T esla M odel S. Sure, a minority might have one. So? Most people can not or will not sit in a car that long every day.

No, I haven't commuted there

Then maybe you might listen to first hand experience. Public transit is nice, relative to other places. Public transit works well for some commutes. Yes, Vancouver is a very walkable city, and nice to walk in. Some commutes can be walking. Public transit and/or walking DOES NOT work well for other commutes.[/quote]
Of course it doesn't, at least conventional public transit doesn't. OTOH, Vancouver, being a hotbed of new urbanism, you can expect that ride-sharing services will become increasingly prevalent, including carpools. AIUI, neither Uber or Lyft operate there yet, but I expect that to change in the not too distant future.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 19, 2018 3:49 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Uh huh, and battery capacity goes down, and heater/defroster use goes up, and rolling resistance and air density increase, all reducing the range even before degradation.

If you don't go there, it doesn't matter. Remember: Evolution not Revolution.

In which case, why would anyone need a short-range car?


Maybe someone might want to go other places, like to work, shopping, school? Or must everyone ski, mandatory for all?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Sat May 19, 2018 4:19 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:If you don't go there, it doesn't matter. Remember: Evolution not Revolution.

In which case, why would anyone need a short-range car?


Maybe someone might want to go other places, like to work, shopping, school? Or must everyone ski, mandatory for all?

Or maybe they will just avail themselves of one of the numerous other options for short trips, or buy themselves a PHEV as their sole car that will let them go anywhere at any time, while still dealing with the shorter trips as ZEVs. Remember, you were the one who asked:
On the other hand, someone with the ideal length commute in BC Canada, with low electric cost, high gasoline price and cool climate, is probably already cheaper to drive an EV than an ICE. So why isn't BC overrun with Leafs and other low end EVs?

I've offered several possible answers, any, all or none of which may be correct. [Added] Found the following from 2009, apparently the most recent:
Canadian Vehicle Survey
2009 Summary report
http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/publications/statistics/cvs09/pdf/cvs09.pdf
Note the tables on pages 13-15. Also see:

Understanding Location-Efficient Affordability Impacts
https://www.planetizen.com/node/98443

and also: http://www.vtpi.org/approach/index.php
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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