jlsoaz
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Tue May 08, 2018 5:47 pm

GRA wrote:
jlsoaz wrote: Some of us feared that Nissan and Mr. Ghosn were relying overly much on an argument we had employed in the 90s and 2000s in California to get Gen1 EV explorers to realize that the average commute is a short distance and can be served in theory by a shorter-range BEV. We knew that this argument is limited, and does not get at the heart of the matter when trying to reach a broader addressable market.<snip>

The argument is considerably older than the 1990s. Exactly the same arguments about how limited BEV range was all you needed for a city (read commute) car, that they could handle 95% (or more) of people's trips, etc. were being made by US EV advocates in the 19-oughts and (increasingly desperately) in the early 19-teens. It was just as true then as it is now, but the car-buying public didn't see things that way in either period. They wanted the range to be able to tour and not be 'tethered to a wire,' even though they'd rarely do so (the roads outside of cities weren't hard-surfaced, and were either dusty or mud furrows), and as the price of cars came down and the middle class could afford one (but only one), they wanted a universal car rather than a limited one. While many more households in the U.S. can afford multiple cars with considerable specialization now, as was only the case with the rich when cars first debuted, there is still a lot of resistance to the idea of limited vehicles, and that will continue as long as they are more expensive than unlimited ones.

Probably the easiest way out of this is when AV car sharing arrives in the not too distant future, as that will allow the public to have routine access to specialized fleets rather than having to specialize on a household basis, and do so at much lower cost.


Thanks, when I wrote this about the 90s and 2000s, I was wondering. It's good to have the improved historical knowledge, ... appreciate the response. On the argument itself, I'm firmly in the camp of pointing up that in effect, it is cutting off sales from a substantial part of the addressable market. It wasn't any different to experience this really than I thought it would be, but I do think it's worth saying that when I leased a Leaf crippled with this short gen1 BEV range, it cost me enough money (including to have to retain a gasoline car for longer trips) that I saw it not as a way of compromising and economizing (driving a vehicle that economize on energy use and expenses), but as a way of living well beyond my means for 39 months, in the area of transportation.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/vehicle.php?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
josh@jlaz.com
opinions expressed are my own

GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Tue May 08, 2018 6:19 pm

When BEVs are able to appear on a list like this one from iSeeCars.com, while meeting all someone's needs as a universal car, it will no longer be necessary to make excuses for them:
The 15 Cars Owners Keep for 15 Years or More
https://www.iseecars.com/used-car-finder#section=studies&study=cars-owners-keep

Of course, higher gas prices such as we're seeing now will speed up the transition - per AAA California's avg. is currently $3.639, and that doesn't yet take show any effect from sanctions on Iran. BTW, my Forester (#13 on the list) turned 15 in January, and should be good for at least another 5 years.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

jlsoaz
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 09, 2018 5:40 am

GRA wrote:When BEVs are able to appear on a list like this one from iSeeCars.com, while meeting all someone's needs as a universal car, it will no longer be necessary to make excuses for them:
The 15 Cars Owners Keep for 15 Years or More
https://www.iseecars.com/used-car-finder#section=studies&study=cars-owners-keep

Of course, higher gas prices such as we're seeing now will speed up the transition - per AAA California's avg. is currently $3.639, and that doesn't yet take show any effect from sanctions on Iran. BTW, my Forester (#13 on the list) turned 15 in January, and should be good for at least another 5 years.


Well, it's a good link to focus some of the conversation on value, though for perspective, I think the idea that we will have to wait at least 15 years from the introduction of a candidate no-excuses BEV to verify that it shows up on such a list is too long a wait for some purposes.

I do agree that higher gas prices will ease the transition. IMO, given the dangers that carbon dioxide emissions very likely pose, it is in my view inexcusable that we do not have higher taxes (ideally a government-imposed price floor I think) on gasoline and diesel in the US, to account for widespread property and health damage very likely caused by those who choose to use those fuels. That is, we have waited too long for those somewhat higher prices to come about and IMO should have acted sooner to raise them by government policy.

In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/vehicle.php?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
josh@jlaz.com
opinions expressed are my own

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 09, 2018 5:53 am

jlsoaz wrote:Nearly 10 years ago I was speaking with an EV advocate and he voiced to me that in his view EVS would not really take off in broader interest until they hit 150 miles range. Sure, you get some sales under that, but he was referring to (and I am referring to, and Ghosn is referring to), the question of what range is necessary to reach a more mainstream broader addressable market. Some of us asked or begged Nissan and Mr. Ghosn to give us a choice of a larger more expensive battery in the Leaf or another BEV, but it took quite some time before larger battery Leafs started coming out, and they did not seem to keep pace with the best of the competition (the Bolt, the Model 3).


"Mainstream acceptance" isn't an event, it is a process. The time scale has always been decades, not years. Even if Nissan could have sold hundred million EVs, the battery production wasn't and isn't there yet to support that sort of numbers.

jlsoaz wrote:Perhaps a contributing factor here was Nissan's commitment to shorter range and less-well-cooled battery technology, and (apparent) refusal to consider options more quickly.


This battery technology was also safer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=Jz37WycW-7E

Don't try this with a can of gasoline. Or with a Tesla battery.
WetEV
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 09, 2018 6:26 am

jlsoaz wrote:In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.


The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

Joe6pack
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 09, 2018 8:31 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
jlsoaz wrote:In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.


The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.


This is exactly right. The US isn't even an automotive growth market - Asia, primarily China is. This is primarily a US-centric website so the opinions tend to be US-centric. Saying things like "Ghosn is badly incorrect" are naive. In my opinion, he is exactly correct and sales of the LEAF and Zoe demonstrate that. I am sure there are examples, but I am having trouble thinking of a car designed primarily for the US market that sold well in Asia or Europe.
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
Braselton, GA

GRA
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Wed May 09, 2018 4:39 pm

WetEV wrote:
jlsoaz wrote:Nearly 10 years ago I was speaking with an EV advocate and he voiced to me that in his view EVS would not really take off in broader interest until they hit 150 miles range. Sure, you get some sales under that, but he was referring to (and I am referring to, and Ghosn is referring to), the question of what range is necessary to reach a more mainstream broader addressable market. Some of us asked or begged Nissan and Mr. Ghosn to give us a choice of a larger more expensive battery in the Leaf or another BEV, but it took quite some time before larger battery Leafs started coming out, and they did not seem to keep pace with the best of the competition (the Bolt, the Model 3).

"Mainstream acceptance" isn't an event, it is a process. The time scale has always been decades, not years. Even if Nissan could have sold hundred million EVs, the battery production wasn't and isn't there yet to support that sort of numbers.

Depends on the tech. Gasoline cars achieved mainstream acceptance in a little over a decade. PCs took a bit longer, as did cell phones.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 10, 2018 6:53 am

GRA wrote:Gasoline cars achieved mainstream acceptance in a little over a decade.


Answer depends on where and for what, and exactly how you define "achieving mainstream acceptance", but a fair answer is longer than "a little over a decade". Cars and tractors were much slower to be adopted in rural areas. Limit the focus to say Manhattan Island, NYC, NY, USA, and the transition is much sharper and earlier.

Battery electric cars have "achieved mainstream acceptance" in Norway with 37% of cars sold being electric. The rest of the world is taking longer.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/04/no ... facturers/

So why Norway? Incentives? Other countries had larger incentives, and much lower sales. Norway is rich? Other countries are richer, and had much lower sales. Leaf sales are about 43% of the electric share, or 16% of total sales. Not quite to Model T market share. Yet.

Image
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2014 Leaf SL Red

jlsoaz
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Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Thu May 10, 2018 9:38 pm

Joe6pack wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:
jlsoaz wrote:In any event, my main point here remains that many of us long ago developed a sense of roughly where the sweet spot would be on range, for making BEVS appeal to a larger addressable market, and Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is.


The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.


This is exactly right. The US isn't even an automotive growth market - Asia, primarily China is. This is primarily a US-centric website so the opinions tend to be US-centric. Saying things like "Ghosn is badly incorrect" are naive. In my opinion, he is exactly correct and sales of the LEAF and Zoe demonstrate that. I am sure there are examples, but I am having trouble thinking of a car designed primarily for the US market that sold well in Asia or Europe.


Hi Joe6pack and GetOffYourGas:

Here is what I have said: "...Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is...."

So, I haven't disputed anything as to what Mr. Ghosn has (finally) concluded is a good sweet spot. 250-300-350km... sounds about right to me. A bit more for the US market and a bit less for many other markets? Sure.

The problem is, in my opinion, that it took Mr. Ghosn and Nissan about 6-8 years from the gen1 vehicles to figure this out (i.e.: to design and make available on the market BEVs with this range), and when they did, Mr. Ghosn made a bold claim that, in effect, it had to take so many sales (and thus, so many years). So, what I am saying is: No, it did not have to take that many sales and that many years.

I can't find it, offhand, because I have only seen the movie once awhile ago, but I wonder if someone knows if Mr. Ghosn is on record in "Revenge Of The Electric Car" as to his views on the multiplier of the average daily commute, and Nissan's decision-making as to the range of the Gen1 Leafs.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/vehicle.php?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
josh@jlaz.com
opinions expressed are my own

Joe6pack
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:57 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 025854

Re: GCC: Nissan shifting EV focus to affordability instead of range

Fri May 11, 2018 6:57 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Joe6pack wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:
The trouble with this statement is that it is very US-centric. Yet Mr. Ghosn's view is world-wide. He is confident that 150 miles is a good no-compromise range for basically any market that is no the US. He said himself that the US was a tougher nut, and it will be cracked with the 225-mile 2019 Leaf. But for now, the 2018 Leaf is selling very well in Asia and Europe. Those markets seem content with the current driving range.


This is exactly right. The US isn't even an automotive growth market - Asia, primarily China is. This is primarily a US-centric website so the opinions tend to be US-centric. Saying things like "Ghosn is badly incorrect" are naive. In my opinion, he is exactly correct and sales of the LEAF and Zoe demonstrate that. I am sure there are examples, but I am having trouble thinking of a car designed primarily for the US market that sold well in Asia or Europe.


Hi Joe6pack and GetOffYourGas:

Here is what I have said: "...Mr. Ghosn is badly incorrect in his claim that in effect one needed to do something like sell 500k to have this well-developed sense of where that spot is...."

So, I haven't disputed anything as to what Mr. Ghosn has (finally) concluded is a good sweet spot. 250-300-350km... sounds about right to me. A bit more for the US market and a bit less for many other markets? Sure.

The problem is, in my opinion, that it took Mr. Ghosn and Nissan about 6-8 years from the gen1 vehicles to figure this out (i.e.: to design and make available on the market BEVs with this range), and when they did, Mr. Ghosn made a bold claim that, in effect, it had to take so many sales (and thus, so many years). So, what I am saying is: No, it did not have to take that many sales and that many years.

I can't find it, offhand, because I have only seen the movie once awhile ago, but I wonder if someone knows if Mr. Ghosn is on record in "Revenge Of The Electric Car" as to his views on the multiplier of the average daily commute, and Nissan's decision-making as to the range of the Gen1 Leafs.


This is revisionist history. To say that the LEAF could have had a 150 mile range and be affordable 8 years ago simply isn't true. This is an evolution, not a revolution. Folks on these boards like to throw around the word "disappointed", and we can all look back and say woulda, coulda, shoulda, but someone had to greenlight a billion dollar decision with the best available information. I'm not saying Ghosn called it perfectly, but I do think he did the best he could with what he had available at the time. He built what he thought the market wanted (and could afford to actually purchase). Now, we've moved on to the next phase - the next step up.

You know, I was driving my 2012 LEAF yesterday and the thought occurred to me: Why doesn't Nissan continue to offer a 24kWh LEAF? What would its price point be? Regardless of how much range we all "think" we need or "feel" we need, 72-84 miles is more than adequate for daily use - even in the US - as a commuter car. Most of us are going to have multi-car households anyway. I guess Nissan does not feel that this market exists.
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
Braselton, GA

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