mtndrew1
Posts: 309
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Location: Gardena CA

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:46 am

OrientExpress wrote:
USA: 14.7K
Americas's: 3.5K
Europe: 40K
China: 37K (Sylphy and Venucia version)
Japan/Asia 25K

Total 120K Nissan LEAF/Variant BEVs sold in 2018.

Not too shabby, as that is more than the M3’s worldwide sales for 2018. It’s not by much, but still it shows that Nissan is more than capable in building a quality product, and rumors of its impending demise are exaggerated.


InsideEVs has calendar 2018 Model 3 US sales exceeding global Leaf (and variant) sales by nearly 20k units.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 20k miles shows 1.3% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

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OrientExpress
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Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:51 am

Yeah, I saw that, but then again those numbers are speculative estimates, while these are based on actuals.

The one big takeaway here is that globally, the Model 3 and the LEAF are essentially at sales parity.
2018 LEAF SL
Gun Metalic
Delivery April 10 2018

Prior LEAF:
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
50,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

mtndrew1
Posts: 309
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Location: Gardena CA

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:59 am

After Q4 of each year the numbers are no longer speculative; InsideEVs firms them up against annual production and delivery information from Tesla. These numbers are confirmed deliveries.

So the Leaf on sale in a dozen (more?) countries with two additional model variants was outsold quite dramatically in one country by a car that costs significantly more with no lease option or finance incentives and that spent the first half of the year trickling out of the factory. The bulk of 2018 Model 3 deliveries happened in the last five months of 2018.

If Tesla averages 5750 global deliveries per week in 2019 they’ll deliver nearly 300,000 Model 3s in addition to the pretty consistent 75-100k S/X global deliveries.

Not too shabby.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 20k miles shows 1.3% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

SageBrush
Posts: 4059
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:08 am

OrientExpress wrote:Yeah, I saw that, but then again those numbers are speculative estimates, while these are based on actuals.

The one big takeaway here is that globally, the Model 3 and the LEAF are essentially at sales parity.

No, Nissan rather conveniently stopped counting in October 2018 :lol:

The real take-away is that Tesla is running away from Nissan in sales. Tesla sold in a couple months the volume it took Nissan years, and the gap is now growing fast and accelerating.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
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Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:09 am

mtndrew1 wrote:If Tesla averages 5750 global deliveries per week in 2019 they’ll deliver nearly 300,000 Model 3s in addition to the pretty consistent 75-100k S/X global deliveries.

Not too shabby.

Double that for Model 3.
I'm less sure about Model S and X
Add Model Y in 2020 and I'm pretty confident of one million sales a year in 2020

I agree; not too shabby
As for Nissan ? Well, they will continue to sell ~ 15k a year in the US at compliance car prices until the Federal tax credit lapses, then they will likely disappear from the US market. They seem to have a steady market in Japan but I expect their sales to dry up in Europe and China as the Chinese cut their sales on the cheap side and Tesla wipes them out on the higher-end car sales.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

mtndrew1
Posts: 309
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Location: Gardena CA

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:26 am

SageBrush wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:If Tesla averages 5750 global deliveries per week in 2019 they’ll deliver nearly 300,000 Model 3s in addition to the pretty consistent 75-100k S/X global deliveries.

Not too shabby.

Double that for Model 3.
I'm less sure about Model S and X
Add Model Y in 2020 and I'm pretty confident of one million sales a year in 2020

I agree; not too shabby
As for Nissan ? Well, they will continue to sell ~ 15k a year in the US at compliance car prices until the Federal tax credit lapses, then they will likely disappear from the US market. They seem to have a steady market in Japan but I expect their sales to dry up in Europe and China as the Chinese cut their sales on the cheap side and Tesla wipes them out on the higher-end car sales.


My theory for Nissan is that the ‘18 Leaf refresh was an unintended stopgap due to the alliance growing to include Mitsubishi.

I presume with three groups on board all needing a flexible EV architecture Nissan decided to slap some lipstick on the old Leaf and build a brand new highly flexible platform from the ground up to underpin diverse products from three brands. The ancient Leaf architecture carries through to ~2021 and then a proper architecture debuts as the real effort.

Then Ghosn got arrested and he was the alliance glue. So now what?
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 20k miles shows 1.3% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

jdcbomb
Posts: 180
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Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:27 am

I would expect once Nissan experiences the US credit phase out, they will do the same thing as Tesla, and drop the MSRP accordingly. Then the LEAF will still be thousands cheaper than even the base model M3.

Things will get really interesting with the Model Y, Kona, Niro, Nissan EV CUV will be on the market at the same time in a couple years.
2018 Leaf SV - In Service 2019 January - Location: Raleigh, NC.
2013 Leaf SL - Original In Service 2013 February - Bar Losses: 2016.10.17 - 25,843 Miles -- 2017.06.23 - 32,080 Miles -- 2018.04.10 - 37,000 Miles -- 4th: 2018.09.23 - 44,255 Miles

specialgreen
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Location: Minnesota

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:41 am

SageBrush wrote:I understand NIssan's reluctance to give up on CHAdeMO in the Japanese market, but it is an albatross everywhere else.


I agree. There is a counter-argument that there are many Chademo chargers installed globally, but Nissan doesn't need to use just one standard worldwide: they produce cars separately on different continents. If they can make left-drive vs right-drive, then they can handle a different plug per continent. So the question for North America is: how many Chademo-only chargers are there in North America vs CCS-only in North America. And how is that number trending? I'd suspect that with the first round of Electrify America, there will already be more CCS-only.

With Nissan LEAF being the only Chademo BEV in production (and 22% of November's non-Tesla BEV sales), I don't see there being _any_ new Chademo-ONLY chargers being installed in North America (other than at Nissan dealers). It would not make any business sense to make a charger that could serve only 22% of potential customers. Similarly, no-one will replace or upgrade a Chademo-only charger without at-least making it dual-plug. So the trend is going to be downwards for Chademo-only in North America. And in every country except Japan.

There could still be a long period where most new commercial chargers are dual-port. But my guess is that there will be some market push-back, once drivers find they only have only one Chademo "pump" at each Electrify America station. They will also charge half as fast as everyone else, and if that pump is out of order, they could be stuck overnight charging with L2. I don't see Chademo availability "falling off a cliff," but I don't see any reason for it to grow, either. So I'm guessing that Nissan will eventually be forced to drop Chademo in the US, but is hanging on to it for now out of inertia and face-saving.
Last edited by specialgreen on Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:11 am, edited 5 times in total.

OakLeaf
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:00 pm
Delivery Date: 21 Nov 2012
Location: Telford, PA

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:53 am

OrientExpress wrote:CHAdeMO is still has the largest FC installed base worldwide, with over 20,000 systems online today.


It's perhaps a parochial point of view, but what matters to each is what is available to them in their area.

From my door, within about an 80 mile radius, the breakdown of fast charger locations is (according to Plugshare):

44 CHAdeMO
32 CCS
13 Supercharger

Locations aren't specifically a plug count, but my observation has been that in addition to sites that are CCS only, sites where there were once several CHAdeMO units, at least half (usually more) have been re-configured to CCS.
2012 Leaf SL - 64K miles since 11/2012 - No P3227 Update - 8 Bars / 41.2AHr / SOH 63% / Hx 55%

mtndrew1
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:52 am
Location: Gardena CA

Re: LEAF+ press release

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:55 am

CHAdeMO:

Nissan Leaf
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Some Teslas with expensive adapter

CCS:

Audi
BMW
BYD (US)
Daimler-Benz
Ford
Freightliner
GM
Honda
Hyundai
Jaguar
Kia
Mini
Porsche
Tesla (EU Model 3)
VW

Electrify America looks like it’ll be the first nationwide supercharger-style network and it’s nearly all CCS.

Stick a fork in CHAdeMO, it’s done.
2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (100% charge @ 20k miles shows 1.3% degradation)

2013 Nissan Leaf S + QC sold with warranty pack replacement (~35% degradation @ ~40k miles)

2015 Kia Soul EV+ Lease returned 10/14/17 45,000 miles w/ 13.8% degradation.

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