DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu May 24, 2018 7:54 am

LeftieBiker wrote:More likely Nissan thought that they had corrected the critical flaw in the packs or BMS for '17, but were mistaken. Cwerdna, do you know if the '17 BMS behaves any differently than the '16?


VERY unlikely since the noise did not reach a din until late 2016 giving little time for Nissan to react combined with their major focus not being on the product at hand but the product of the then near future.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Valdemar
Posts: 2507
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 10:32 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Sep 2011
Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu May 24, 2018 9:02 am

If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB), -1CB(53.92Ahr)@140k/29mo,
53.92AHr, SOH 84.5%, 140k miles

9kW Solar

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu May 24, 2018 9:47 am

Valdemar wrote:If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.


I'm leaning towards this theory too, especially since they can use the "defective" packs in their new line of refurbished packs (possible as 24kwh replacements?).
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
Date - Miles / GIDs:
May '17 - 7300 mi / 363
Feb '18 - 20.5k mi / 333

Valdemar
Posts: 2507
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 10:32 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Sep 2011
Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu May 24, 2018 1:30 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Valdemar wrote:If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.


I'm leaning towards this theory too, especially since they can use the "defective" packs in their new line of refurbished packs (possible as 24kwh replacements?).


Very good point.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB), -1CB(53.92Ahr)@140k/29mo,
53.92AHr, SOH 84.5%, 140k miles

9kW Solar

johnlocke
Posts: 299
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu May 24, 2018 5:46 pm

Valdemar wrote:If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.

Remember that this is a world-wide decision on their part. We are not hearing about battery failures in Europe or Japan so Nissan has probably decided to just bear the warranty costs. That is much cheaper than issuing a recall to replace defective batteries. First, it spreads the costs out over a longer period. Second, only obvious failures will be replaced so marginal batteries will remain in service. Third, you still have to go through the warranty process which will deter some and some procrastinators will time out on the warranty.

Nissan doesn't seem to care about their reputation as an EV builder so I have to assume that the Leaf is ultimately just a compliance car built to allow Nissan to sell larger ICE vehicles like trucks and SUV's with much higher margins in the US. Leafs do well enough in Europe and Japan and maybe their plan is to cede the US market to Tesla and GM.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

Valdemar
Posts: 2507
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 10:32 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Sep 2011
Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu May 24, 2018 10:44 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Valdemar wrote:If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.

Remember that this is a world-wide decision on their part. We are not hearing about battery failures in Europe or Japan so Nissan has probably decided to just bear the warranty costs. That is much cheaper than issuing a recall to replace defective batteries. First, it spreads the costs out over a longer period. Second, only obvious failures will be replaced so marginal batteries will remain in service. Third, you still have to go through the warranty process which will deter some and some procrastinators will time out on the warranty.

Nissan doesn't seem to care about their reputation as an EV builder so I have to assume that the Leaf is ultimately just a compliance car built to allow Nissan to sell larger ICE vehicles like trucks and SUV's with much higher margins in the US. Leafs do well enough in Europe and Japan and maybe their plan is to cede the US market to Tesla and GM.


Are you saying this was a defective batch?
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB), -1CB(53.92Ahr)@140k/29mo,
53.92AHr, SOH 84.5%, 140k miles

9kW Solar

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri May 25, 2018 12:08 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Valdemar wrote:If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.

Remember that this is a world-wide decision on their part. We are not hearing about battery failures in Europe or Japan so Nissan has probably decided to just bear the warranty costs. That is much cheaper than issuing a recall to replace defective batteries. First, it spreads the costs out over a longer period. Second, only obvious failures will be replaced so marginal batteries will remain in service. Third, you still have to go through the warranty process which will deter some and some procrastinators will time out on the warranty.

Nissan doesn't seem to care about their reputation as an EV builder so I have to assume that the Leaf is ultimately just a compliance car built to allow Nissan to sell larger ICE vehicles like trucks and SUV's with much higher margins in the US. Leafs do well enough in Europe and Japan and maybe their plan is to cede the US market to Tesla and GM.


We also need to consider that a LOT of 30 kwh packs are performing very well. We seem to have taken the stance that the 30 kwh pack is a complete failure which is quite removed from reality.

So the question becomes a recall to gather several dozen packs sold in certain locations over simply budgeting 100 replacements? 200 replacements?

No way to predict the future but my pack was on pace to EASILY have 12 bars at 100,000 miles and I wasn't alone.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

johnlocke
Posts: 299
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Sat May 26, 2018 9:30 am

Valdemar wrote:
johnlocke wrote:
Valdemar wrote:If not a defective batch then they must have knowingly signed up for 1 or potentially 2 warranty replacements in hotter areas. I just cannot believe they didn't have the data after the original 11/12 pack debacle. Who knows, perhaps they ran the numbers and between the lower battery manufacturing costs and EV credits they still come out ahead overall, and it was simply a business decision.

Remember that this is a world-wide decision on their part. We are not hearing about battery failures in Europe or Japan so Nissan has probably decided to just bear the warranty costs. That is much cheaper than issuing a recall to replace defective batteries. First, it spreads the costs out over a longer period. Second, only obvious failures will be replaced so marginal batteries will remain in service. Third, you still have to go through the warranty process which will deter some and some procrastinators will time out on the warranty.

Nissan doesn't seem to care about their reputation as an EV builder so I have to assume that the Leaf is ultimately just a compliance car built to allow Nissan to sell larger ICE vehicles like trucks and SUV's with much higher margins in the US. Leafs do well enough in Europe and Japan and maybe their plan is to cede the US market to Tesla and GM.


Are you saying this was a defective batch?

No, What I'm saying is that this is a design flaw and appears to affect all the 30 KWH batteries. They aren't heat tolerant enough for the South and Southwest U.S. Whether we see some early failures in the Midwestern states is still uncertain but we do have reports of some loss of capacity already. If you live in an area with short summers or highs of less than 90 degrees, there's a likelihood that your battery will last significantly longer. On the other hand, there's an eight year, 100k warranty period so Nissan has increased exposure. There could be a high failure rate toward the end of the warranty period even in areas with mild climates. We are two years into an eight year warranty period and we have already started to see warranty failures. A lot of the 24KWh packs made it to the 5 year mark without triggering the warranty. They are still degraded, just not badly enough to trigger a replacement.

Even if your battery does last for 100,000 miles, odds are that it will still be significantly degraded (70% or less) at that point. For most people that's not really acceptable. Even Nissan has said that the battery is only expected to retain 80% at 100k. It appears that 60-65% is the warranty trigger point. Will you be happy with with a 20KWH car?
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Sat May 26, 2018 12:10 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Valdemar wrote:
johnlocke wrote:Remember that this is a world-wide decision on their part. We are not hearing about battery failures in Europe or Japan so Nissan has probably decided to just bear the warranty costs. That is much cheaper than issuing a recall to replace defective batteries. First, it spreads the costs out over a longer period. Second, only obvious failures will be replaced so marginal batteries will remain in service. Third, you still have to go through the warranty process which will deter some and some procrastinators will time out on the warranty.

Nissan doesn't seem to care about their reputation as an EV builder so I have to assume that the Leaf is ultimately just a compliance car built to allow Nissan to sell larger ICE vehicles like trucks and SUV's with much higher margins in the US. Leafs do well enough in Europe and Japan and maybe their plan is to cede the US market to Tesla and GM.


Are you saying this was a defective batch?

No, What I'm saying is that this is a design flaw and appears to affect all the 30 KWH batteries. They aren't heat tolerant enough for the South and Southwest U.S. Whether we see some early failures in the Midwestern states is still uncertain but we do have reports of some loss of capacity already. If you live in an area with short summers or highs of less than 90 degrees, there's a likelihood that your battery will last significantly longer. On the other hand, there's an eight year, 100k warranty period so Nissan has increased exposure. There could be a high failure rate toward the end of the warranty period even in areas with mild climates. We are two years into an eight year warranty period and we have already started to see warranty failures. A lot of the 24KWh packs made it to the 5 year mark without triggering the warranty. They are still degraded, just not badly enough to trigger a replacement.

Even if your battery does last for 100,000 miles, odds are that it will still be significantly degraded (70% or less) at that point. For most people that's not really acceptable. Even Nissan has said that the battery is only expected to retain 80% at 100k. It appears that 60-65% is the warranty trigger point. Will you be happy with with a 20KWH car?


Heat is not the only factor since there are plenty of degrading packs in my area as well. In fact, I made a MAJOR change in charging habits based on a conversation with another who had early 2016 SV and saw almost 10% degradation under 10,000 miles and 6 months. Luckily I got my S30 a month before 2017's came out so I was able to practice these habits almost immediately.

My pack was well on its way to 100,000 miles with 12 bars intact. I love the extra range of my 2018 but can't help but wonder what we could have found out had I still had my S30
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

johnlocke
Posts: 299
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Sun May 27, 2018 7:37 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
johnlocke wrote:
Valdemar wrote:
Are you saying this was a defective batch?

No, What I'm saying is that this is a design flaw and appears to affect all the 30 KWH batteries. They aren't heat tolerant enough for the South and Southwest U.S. Whether we see some early failures in the Midwestern states is still uncertain but we do have reports of some loss of capacity already. If you live in an area with short summers or highs of less than 90 degrees, there's a likelihood that your battery will last significantly longer. On the other hand, there's an eight year, 100k warranty period so Nissan has increased exposure. There could be a high failure rate toward the end of the warranty period even in areas with mild climates. We are two years into an eight year warranty period and we have already started to see warranty failures. A lot of the 24KWh packs made it to the 5 year mark without triggering the warranty. They are still degraded, just not badly enough to trigger a replacement.

Even if your battery does last for 100,000 miles, odds are that it will still be significantly degraded (70% or less) at that point. For most people that's not really acceptable. Even Nissan has said that the battery is only expected to retain 80% at 100k. It appears that 60-65% is the warranty trigger point. Will you be happy with with a 20KWH car?


Heat is not the only factor since there are plenty of degrading packs in my area as well. In fact, I made a MAJOR change in charging habits based on a conversation with another who had early 2016 SV and saw almost 10% degradation under 10,000 miles and 6 months. Luckily I got my S30 a month before 2017's came out so I was able to practice these habits almost immediately.

My pack was well on its way to 100,000 miles with 12 bars intact. I love the extra range of my 2018 but can't help but wonder what we could have found out had I still had my S30

I personally don't think that charging habits make much of a difference unless you leave the car at 100% charge for several days at a time. There are people on this forum who religiously charge to 80% and still show significant degradation and others who charge to 100% routinely without problem. Time and Temperature seem to be the only consistent factors. The 30KWH packs are only 2 1/2 years old at max and most are less than 2 years old. Early failures in Arizona, Texas, and Florida sure point to temperature as a major cause. The fact that you live in the Northwest probably has more to do with your battery's condition than your charging habits. If there are any people in Phoenix or Dallas following your charging recommendations, I would love to hear their experiences and what their battery conditions are.

Given Nissan's propensity to fiddle with the values of those bars, you could be down to 80% and still show 12 bars. Nissan turned what could have been a useful gauge into a glorified idiot light. As it stands now, they might as well change it to a single red light that says "change battery". Light comes on, change the battery. No point in any thing else since 4 bars gone is the only criteria for warranty repairs and the loss of range by the "guess-o-meter" is a better estimate of battery condition than the battery condition gauge.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

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