"The solar energy business is booming" or not

Starting this thread to discuss Desertstraw's assertions from December 17, 2011 at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=159438#p159438" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

cwerdna said:

Desertstraw said:

aqn said:

OTOH, if EV's go the way of solar panels, that is, very slow in being adopted, it can be an entirely different ball game.

Click to expand...

I just can't let this misinformed quote pass. The solar energy business is booming, the news about some company failures is just the normal shakeout in a new industry. The days of fossil fuel are numbered.

Click to expand...

Hmmm, as someone who invests and watches the stock market (but stays away from solar, too risky), do you have any good refutations against articles like http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/12/16/how-long-until-the-solar-industry-revives/?utm_source=pulsenews&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fortunebrainstormtech+%28Fortune+Brainstorm+Tech%29" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;?

What are some publicly traded current solar companies that are booming and at what rate?

Click to expand...

Let's be clear. I am NOT anti-solar. I'd love to see it succeed and its usage be widespread. I just don't see (or am unaware of) any solid quantitative evidence to support the claims that it's booming.

Solynndra went bankrupt prior to his post. FSLR's stock has fallen from a peak of over $300/share to ~$37 as of this writing w/a 30% layoff a year ago and closing a plant in Germany. Suntech went bankrupt. BP and Bosch are exiting the solar business. LDK Solar is having trouble paying its bonds. I posted most of that in the prior battery upgrade thread.

I only happened to stumble across the above news as I don't follow the solar industry much as it is.

So far, nobody has pointed to any solid evidence that it's booming.

Discuss here.... Post evidence that it is or isn't booming.

"Solar Energy Business" means a lot of different things. Solar Panel fabrication has not done well in this country recently because there are cheaper imports from China on the market. However, sales of panels and installation of systems IS booming, and again, partly because prices are down due to the cheaper Chinese panels.

SteveInSeattle said:

"Solar Energy Business" means a lot of different things. Solar Panel fabrication has not done well in this country recently because there are cheaper imports from China on the market. However, sales of panels and installation of systems IS booming, and again, partly because prices are down due to the cheaper Chinese panels.

Click to expand...

"Booming" also means a lot of things.

Last year there was a record-breaking 3.3 gigawatts worth of solar panels — or 16 million individual solar panels — installed in the U.S., making solar power the fastest-growing energy source domestically....The 3.3GW worth of solar panels was more than the three previous years combined, said the report, and showed a 76 percent growth over 2011.....For 2013, the researchers have estimated that there will be 4.3GW of solar panels installed, which would be an increase of 29 percent over 2012.

Click to expand...

http://gigaom.com/2013/03/14/2012-was-a-record-breaking-year-for-solar-panels-in-the-u-s/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The cost of solar is not booming that's for sure.

SteveInSeattle said:

"Solar Energy Business" means a lot of different things. Solar Panel fabrication has not done well in this country recently because there are cheaper imports from China on the market. However, sales of panels and installation of systems IS booming, and again, partly because prices are down due to the cheaper Chinese panels.

Click to expand...

Yes. I've heard a lot about the price competition and erosion due to partly/mainly due to cheap Chinese imports.

But.... guess what country are bankrupt Suntech and having trouble LDK based in?
(drum roll...)



China!

Seems like a shake out in the panel manufacturing industry. Could lead to higher prices soon. Get your panels up now I say. Mine are in process.

smkettner said:

Seems like a shake out in the panel manufacturing industry. Could lead to higher prices soon. Get your panels up now I say. Mine are in process.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing when things started to plummet and panel manufacturers started falling. Fortunately so far it's been good.

September 2011 I paid $1.34 a watt for 21x 230 watt CSI panels and $2.63 for the total materials BOM with Enphase M215 system.

Now I'm adding 37 more panels and they are 250 watt CSI at 80 cents a watt and only $1.82 a watt and 9 cents of that is so that the 26 street facing panels will be mono black frame panels.

So excited they all arrive between 1:00 and 5:00 tomorrow!

QueenBee said:

So excited they all arrive between 1:00 and 5:00 tomorrow!

Click to expand...

Are you doing a self-install and going w/Enphase again? Will you be documenting the install?

I'd like to add another 2 kW to my system, but that would mean upgrading my service panel which is a very expensive proposition thanks to underground service and inadequate conduit that would need to be re-trenched.

cwerdna said:

SteveInSeattle said:

"Solar Energy Business" means a lot of different things. Solar Panel fabrication has not done well in this country recently because there are cheaper imports from China on the market. However, sales of panels and installation of systems IS booming, and again, partly because prices are down due to the cheaper Chinese panels.

Click to expand...

Yes. I've heard a lot about the price competition and erosion due to partly/mainly due to cheap Chinese imports.

But.... guess what country are bankrupt Suntech and having trouble LDK based in?
(drum roll...)



China!

Click to expand...

What country has rapidly expanded PV production in a WWII-sized effort and therefore has more companies to settle out? (do we need a drum roll?) A 5% loss of the world's largest number of manufacturers will only look 'bad' if we focus on the losses and ignore the large number of stronger companies that are still pushing out record numbers of panels...

Still seems like you're fighting for a down-turn to me.

FSLR has been a very profitable bubble for those that rode it up and got out (and the rest that rode it down), but the return to share price sanity isn't necessarily a bad thing...
http://grovecapital.blogspot.com/2008/08/profit-from-fslr-bubble.html

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/03/chinas-solar-boom-is-only-beginning/

What we’re seeing is the birth pangs of a new, capitalist industry. We should be rejoicing that some companies are going bankrupt – it shows that the industry really is competitive, and not subject to arbitrary state control.

There have been comparable episodes at the birth of every major industry. Detroit boasted hundreds of auto companies in the 1910s and 1920s before bankruptcies and consolidation led to the creation of the Big Three – Ford, General Motors and Chrysler. Likewise in electronics and computers. Now it is the turn of solar photovoltaics.

Click to expand...

AndyH said:

What country has rapidly expanded PV production in a WWII-sized effort and therefore has more companies to settle out? (do we need a drum roll?) A 5% loss of the world's largest number of manufacturers will only look 'bad' if we focus on the losses and ignore the large number of stronger companies that are still pushing out record numbers of panels...

Click to expand...

+1

I'll put it another way. The fact that several solar-related business are failing is NOT evidence that the solar energy business is not booming. Evidence for or against solar energy booming is found in revenue and sales numbers.

The simple fact is that solar energy has reached a tipping point where the perceived value proposition of the products (whether real or not, but I think it is real) is sufficiently higher than the incumbent products that the customer base is now growing very rapidly. Many first movers in this space will now discover that their business model which included high margins and revenues from repairs and replacements of failed products is not attractive when compared with new technologies which offer lower costs and lower maintenance. The technology is advancing quickly.

I can tell you that this trend will not stop anytime soon. The technologies which are coming to market today will drastically slash manufacturing costs, will greatly increase reliability, will improve the feature set and will significantly increase the amount of electricity produced in a given area. The result will be that many (most?) of the companies which we consider to be the leaders today will be forced to either rapidly enhance their products through development or acquisition or they will not survive.

Simply put, solar energy will continue to be a cutthroat business and it will continue to be a minefield for investors to navigate. There are great rewards to be had in this market, but the risks will continue to be high.

Cheap, renewable energy is a must-have for our society and the companies who deliver the technology that provides it will experience continued growth (or failure) for decades to come.

smkettner said:

Seems like a shake out in the panel manufacturing industry. Could lead to higher prices soon. Get your panels up now I say.

Click to expand...

Temporarily. Back in 1983-84 there was a "shakeout" of the ~10 computer manufacturers with companies losing tons of money and either going bankrupt or almost-bankrupt. You could purchase a computer at rock-bottom prices ($100 for a Coleco, $150 for a TI, $300 for Commodore, $600 for Atari in today's dollars), but the technology did not stop developing. Today's computers are tons better. POINT: Buying a solar panel today means you'll be stuck with the solar equivalent of a C64. Primitive tech. Twenty years from now the panels will be far more efficient & cost much less.

theaveng said:

smkettner said:

Seems like a shake out in the panel manufacturing industry. Could lead to higher prices soon. Get your panels up now I say.

Click to expand...

Temporarily. Back in 1983-84 there was a "shakeout" of the ~10 computer manufacturers with companies losing tons of money and either going bankrupt or almost-bankrupt. You could purchase a computer at rock-bottom prices ($100 for a Coleco, $150 for a TI, $300 for Commodore, $600 for Atari in today's dollars), but the technology did not stop developing. Today's computers are tons better. UPOINT: Buying a solar panel today means you'll be stuck with the solar equivalent of a C64. Primitive tech. Twenty years from now the panels will be far more efficient & cost much less.

Click to expand...

I don't think you made your point by mentioning the consolidation and prices of computers 30 years ago. I don't your analogy is a good one. Is a 30 year old computer still usable today? Does it still do the things that you would want in a computer? A better analogy might be a 30 year old car. With some maintenance it could still be usable. It still takes the same fuel source as a new car, it still performs its function almost identically to a brand new car. It just uses old technology and isn't as efficient. A 30 year old computer belongs in a museum, a 30 year old car could still be on the road, and a 30 year PV system is probably still chugging along doing what it was designed to do.

No the car is a bad analogy because cars were a common technology in 1983-84. A solar panel is more akin to the early computer industry, because it's just barely getting off the ground. There is a lot of growth potential there, especially as economy-of-scale kicks in and drives down the cost. In other words I'm saying a PV system will likely cost 10% once it becomes common. Investing early is an unwise decision (you're paying ten times more than you need).

Maybe a better analogy would be a DVD player. When just-released they cost around $1000 each (so I did not buy one). Now they cost about $30 (so I bought one). I expect solar panels to drop in price too.

With the car (and computer and solar panels) you forget though that they still served their purpose over their lifetime, (or until they become obsolete). I know I had a lot of fun with my C64!
The same applies to the DVD player (or any other technology). If you enjoy or use the benefits of the new technology (and can afford it), the right time to use it is always now.

With the subsidies right now, even inefficient panels can make some sense economically, and they produce CO2-free energy for 20 -30 years (no matter what the actual cost was). In the southern US I can imagine panels being economically reasonable without subsidies even today.

theaveng said:

Twenty years from now the panels will be far more efficient & cost much less.

Click to expand...

OK and in 20 years I will be installing that new technology. Until then I will grab what I can.

Well I'm a late adopter. I always wait for the pricedrop as a new technology becomes common & will wait for solar panels to become as cheap as a heat pump (~$3000). Not buying early has also helped me avoid some dumb mistakes (like Minidisc, Digital Compact Cassette, and Super CD) that quickly became obsolete. Sadly I still have a videorecord player laying in my basement..... boy that was a waste of money.

Even if the panels/inverter were free, the installation will always exceed $3,000. Can't imagine local labor costs going down.

smkettner said:

Even if the panels/inverter were free, the installation will always exceed $3,000. Can't imagine local labor costs going down.

Click to expand...

The only hope there would be that the installation process becomes easier and more streamlined, so less labor would be required. But right now I have looked at an expansion of my existing system and the labor was exceeding the actual panel cost, because the addition would have been too small, so it simply did not make any financial sense at all.

Conversely, if larger systems become more feasible due to lower material costs, the labor cost will shrink in proportion to total cost. Then of course, everything hinges on the price of electricity.

In Seattle a lifetime production of e.g. a 4 kW system @ 20 years 80,000 kWH at current prices (~ 0.05 $ / kWH tier 1and ~ $0.1/kWH tier 2) cannot ever justify installation cost (without subsidies).
But at $0.2 per kWH, i think it would be possible to install a 4kW system at or below $16k.
Of course $16k at e.g. 4% annual return and 20 year investment time is another story....

it is booming on my roof, where it has produced since 2008 all our power plus fueled my LEAF, which goes 12k a year (with about 25% of its power coming at worksite.)

The smartest move would be to buy a house w/ solar panels already installed. That way the previous owners pay the cost of installation instead of yourself. I've seen a few of these homes for sale.

theaveng said:

No the car is a bad analogy because cars were a common technology in 1983-84. A solar panel is more akin to the early computer industry, because it's just barely getting off the ground. There is a lot of growth potential there, especially as economy-of-scale kicks in and drives down the cost. In other words I'm saying a PV system will likely cost 10% once it becomes common. Investing early is an unwise decision (you're paying ten times more than you need).

Maybe a better analogy would be a DVD player. When just-released they cost around $1000 each (so I did not buy one). Now they cost about $30 (so I bought one). I expect solar panels to drop in price too.

Click to expand...

The difference is the ROI on a DVD player is always going to be the same no matter when you buy it.

The gable one would be making now is does the ROI today beat what it will take to wait. If today the break even is 8 years, and in 3 years it's 5 years then more or less waiting 3 years didn't you anywhere but if in 3 years the ROI is 3 years then you are a head waiting.

While you are sitting on the fence I'll be patiently waiting for the delivery of my 37 panels between 1:00 and 5:00 today

For solar systems to become 10% of the cost they are today they'll be to become multiple times more efficient. There is going to be a lower limit of the cost per SQFT of solar system and I would suspect we are getting into where there are not dramatic cost reductions made there, at least for the systems that are being installed for under $4 a watt. It's been slowly happening but we'll need some major improvements in the efficiency to see anything close to a 10% drop.