GRA
Posts: 8186
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:45 pm

Via ABG:
Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales
Installations fall this year for the first time after previous annual increases of 50 percent
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/12/15/tesla-responsible-for-slide-in-u-s-home-solar-sales/

After years of double-digit growth, home solar installations in the United States are poised to fall for the first time this year, according to a report released on Thursday by GTM Research. The reason? An analysis of installation data suggests that most of the slowdown is traceable to a single company: Tesla, which acquired sister company SolarCity about a year ago.

For years, SolarCity, with early backing from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, was the biggest player in residential solar and the driving force behind that market's supercharged growth. When Tesla bought SolarCity last year, Musk called the acquisition a "no-brainer," saying the two companies shared "the same overarching goal of sustainable energy." But under Tesla's ownership, the company has largely stopped its aggressive marketing campaigns and ambitious expansion.

As a result, Tesla's rooftop solar installations have fallen sharply each quarter this year compared to last. In the third quarter, installations were off by 42 percent over the previous year.

Tesla declined to comment for this story, but has previously said that while sales are down, margins are up. The company expects its fourth-quarter solar installation numbers to be higher than those of the third quarter.

Overall, the residential solar market is expected to fall 13 percent this year, according to GTM's U.S. PV Leaderboard report. That compares with a 19 percent rise last year and four straight years before that of increases above 50 percent.

SolarCity was responsible for an outsized portion of that growth, accounting for a quarter of the national market in 2016 and more than 30 percent the previous two years. By the third quarter of this year, its share had dropped to 14 percent, according to the GTM report. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Evoforce
Posts: 752
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:06 pm

Our local power company is responsible for the fall of solar installs.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

User avatar
HIOJim
Posts: 237
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:19 am
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2016
Leaf Number: 5294
Location: King City, Oregon

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:14 am

Evoforce wrote:Our local power company is responsible for the fall of solar installs.

How so?
Hans (2017 VW e-Golf SE) Leased 01/16/18
The Blue Beauty (2016 Leaf SV) - Lease return 01/21/18
The Dark Knight (2013 Leaf S) - Lease return 03/31/16
LineJumper (2011 Nissan LEAF eTec) - Sold 10/01/11
Sparky (2012 Chevy Volt) - Purchased 09/16/11

User avatar
EVDRIVER
Posts: 6220
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:51 am

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:33 am

Like many utilities that have eliminated incentives, made the process difficult, and change solar rate programs to benefit the utility. A PGE person told me they are making it worse because they needed solar for peak demand savings and now that so many customers have solar it no longer benefits them and just hurts their revenue. Pretty clear why since I have not paid an electric bill in 10 years except for the meter charge. They intend to sunset my present rate plan to something that benefits them of course.

SageBrush
Posts: 2055
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:24 am

SC had a non sustainable business plan due to customer acquisitions costs and less profitable production credits. Reigning in the too expensive growth was a given once Tesla took over.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles

armmynissanleaf
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:27 pm
Delivery Date: 05 Feb 2014

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:26 pm

Always do acts of kindness in this world.
TorqueNews Nissan

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1770
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:18 am

armmynissanleaf wrote:It's not only Tesla. Here is how Ford and Chevy did.

https://www.torquenews.com/1083/follow-our-electric-vehicle-sales-predictions-2017-howd-we-do


I was not aware that Ford or Chevy were selling home solar panels...
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

LKK
Posts: 280
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:27 am

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:20 am

I think the new rates currently being imposed by the utilities on residential solar is the main reason for declining solar sales.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... capitalism

Tesla is actually one of the good guys, they produce the Powerwall 2 battery which can work with solar systems to negate the onerous rates imposed by utilities by simply storing excess solar power and drawing from the battery instead of the grid when there is no sun.

rmay635703
Posts: 452
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 7:43 pm

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:49 pm

In 5 years off grid will be at grid parity assuming you get heat from something other than electricity.

In some areas I have a strong suspicion we are already there.

Just opt out if they want to continue increasing profits in an era of reducing electrical use and increasing home production.

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6107
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Tesla responsible for slide in U.S. home solar sales

Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:50 am

rmay635703 wrote:In 5 years off grid will be at grid parity assuming you get heat from something other than electricity.

In some areas I have a strong suspicion we are already there.
Certainly there is already parity for net-metered on-grid systems with storage in places like Hawaii. Tesla PowerWall 2 is on the order of US$0.15/kWh now and that will continue to drop. The difference with being completely off-grid comes in when you have a big seasonal mismatch between production and load. But, as you say, that difference is largely related to heating.

Unfortunately, the bottom line is that they force EVERYONE to pay more for electricity with these changes, even those who produce an amount of electricity equivalent to their usage. Yes, I get that net metering is a form of subsidy and has its limits, but I also get that a two-meter system (used in some locations) is massively unfair to the solar producer since it charges an uplift for electricity which is self-consumed and is therefore not carried by the utility's distribution system.
rmay635703 wrote:Just opt out if they want to continue increasing profits in an era of reducing electrical use and increasing home production.
Yes, solar and batteries put a firm cap on electricity rates.

I do see a bit of "how to boil a frog" going on with utilities. This causes many (most?) consumers to not notice the steady increases which show up in their power bills.

For instance, our utility will raise our monthly access fee from $10 to $20 beginning in March 2018. In order to make this palatable to the rate base, they are slightly lowering the electricity rates so that the overall bills only increase a small amount (or even go DOWN for large wintertime consumers):

First 300 kWh: 11.7c/kWh -> 10.9c/kWh
Above 300 kWh: 10.5c/kWh -> 9.9c/kWh
Above 800 kWh (from June through September): 10.5c/kWh -> 11.9 kWh (The only increase in rates.)

I put my 2017 consumption numbers (assuming I didn't have solar) into their online calculator and I see the costs of the 18,245 kWh of electricity we used this year having the following pricing:

Current prices (what we would have paid for electricity in 2017 ignoring solar and about $17 of county taxes): $2017.81
Proposed prices (what we would have paid for electricity in 2017 ignoring solar and about $17 of county taxes): $2156.70

70% of the increase happens in the months of June through September when they are (finally) putting in place rates which INCREASE with additional usage.

If I do a simple calculation of annual dollars (including the taxes) divided by annual consumption, that comes to a change from 11.15c/kWh to 11.91c/kWh.

What we actually paid for electricity service in 2017 (including county taxes): $151.88
That number will increase to about $280.00 with the new rate plan.

Of course, slightly lower per-kWh rates mean slightly less return on grid-tied solar investments, even though the overall price of service has increased.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

Return to “Solar”