WetEV
Posts: 1704
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:17 am

RE: "Near certainty"

Consider this: volume-median_melt-3*standard_deviation_of_melt

Volume is the current PIOMAS volume. Median melt is the difference between this date and the minimum volume.

Now, PIOMAS isn't exact, like all things based on measurements, there are measurement errors.

And weather varies.

And ice isn't homogeneous.

And current ice volume isn't very predictive of minimum ice volume.

And other restrictions apply, see dealer for details.


Still, having:

volume-median_melt-3*standard_deviation_of_melt= -0.071278028871196

should make you wonder.

A blue water North Pole happens before zero ice volume.

Less than 3 SD away from a blue water North Pole.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

WetEV
Posts: 1704
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:25 am

RegGuheert wrote:One thing is for sure: it cannot be proven that blue water over the North Pole did NOT occur in the 20th century since there was not continuous monitoring.


I'm not disappointed in you. Spin is starting. I'm sure you will have an answer of how some cycle predicts a blue water North Pole. And some odd bit of text from the middle ages. Good old RegGuheert.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

WetEV
Posts: 1704
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:38 am

RegGuheert wrote:Are you predicting that there will be blue water over the North Pole someday? If so, when?


Stating that the odds of a blue water North Pole are no longer zero isn't quite the same thing as a prediction. If the weatherman said 1% chance of a rain shower would you cancel the picnic? Or just pack a tarp? Chance is low, about 3 SD. Still, it might rain.

Stating that "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong" is a prediction by RegGuheert.

What if you are wrong, RegGuheert?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:25 am

WetEV wrote:What if you are wrong, RegGuheert?
Then I'm wrong. It won't matter to anyone (or any beast) anywhere if I am.

But I'm almost certainly right on this point.

But you brought it up, so clearly you think the ice will continue its decrease over time, against all past experience.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 1704
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:41 am

RegGuheert wrote:Then I'm wrong. It won't matter to anyone (or any beast) anywhere if I am.


It does matter. Ideas have consequences.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:54 am

WetEV wrote:It does matter. Ideas have consequences.
True enough. That's why I'm exposing the nonsense of what you post here.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 1704
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:59 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:It does matter. Ideas have consequences.
True enough. That's why I'm exposing the nonsense of what you post here.


Such as "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong."
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5421
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:16 am

WetEV wrote:Such as "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong."
I've provided strong evidence to support my belief.

The fact that you even parroted the idea that the North Pole might be blue in the near future shows the folly of your belief system.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 1704
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:37 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:Such as "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong."
I've provided strong evidence to support my belief.

The fact that you even parroted the idea that the North Pole might be blue in the near future shows the folly of your belief system.


Oh, that's rich. Do keep giving me quotes to use later.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

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