WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:17 am

RE: "Near certainty"

Consider this: volume-median_melt-3*standard_deviation_of_melt

Volume is the current PIOMAS volume. Median melt is the difference between this date and the minimum volume.

Now, PIOMAS isn't exact, like all things based on measurements, there are measurement errors.

And weather varies.

And ice isn't homogeneous.

And current ice volume isn't very predictive of minimum ice volume.

And other restrictions apply, see dealer for details.


Still, having:

volume-median_melt-3*standard_deviation_of_melt= -0.071278028871196

should make you wonder.

A blue water North Pole happens before zero ice volume.

Less than 3 SD away from a blue water North Pole.
WetEV
#49
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WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:25 am

RegGuheert wrote:One thing is for sure: it cannot be proven that blue water over the North Pole did NOT occur in the 20th century since there was not continuous monitoring.


I'm not disappointed in you. Spin is starting. I'm sure you will have an answer of how some cycle predicts a blue water North Pole. And some odd bit of text from the middle ages. Good old RegGuheert.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:38 am

RegGuheert wrote:Are you predicting that there will be blue water over the North Pole someday? If so, when?


Stating that the odds of a blue water North Pole are no longer zero isn't quite the same thing as a prediction. If the weatherman said 1% chance of a rain shower would you cancel the picnic? Or just pack a tarp? Chance is low, about 3 SD. Still, it might rain.

Stating that "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong" is a prediction by RegGuheert.

What if you are wrong, RegGuheert?
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:25 am

WetEV wrote:What if you are wrong, RegGuheert?
Then I'm wrong. It won't matter to anyone (or any beast) anywhere if I am.

But I'm almost certainly right on this point.

But you brought it up, so clearly you think the ice will continue its decrease over time, against all past experience.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:41 am

RegGuheert wrote:Then I'm wrong. It won't matter to anyone (or any beast) anywhere if I am.


It does matter. Ideas have consequences.
WetEV
#49
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RegGuheert
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:54 am

WetEV wrote:It does matter. Ideas have consequences.
True enough. That's why I'm exposing the nonsense of what you post here.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
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WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:59 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:It does matter. Ideas have consequences.
True enough. That's why I'm exposing the nonsense of what you post here.


Such as "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong."
WetEV
#49
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:16 am

WetEV wrote:Such as "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong."
I've provided strong evidence to support my belief.

The fact that you even parroted the idea that the North Pole might be blue in the near future shows the folly of your belief system.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
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WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:37 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:Such as "a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong."
I've provided strong evidence to support my belief.

The fact that you even parroted the idea that the North Pole might be blue in the near future shows the folly of your belief system.


Oh, that's rich. Do keep giving me quotes to use later.
WetEV
#49
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:08 am

RegGuheert wrote:What you see is that when you measure the *entire* atmosphere and then average it in a consistent manner, the Earth is no longer warming. That's what the satellites are measuring:


People have the idea that satellites just have to be better, because they can survey the whole Earth with one instrument. But that is far from true. The downsides are described in this UAH overview and the various RSS papers, and include:

There is only one instrument, or at most a few, while at the surface there are thousands, creating lots of redundancy. One consequence is that with satellites there is a big problem with the inevitable changeovers. Surface stations needd some adjustment when the instruments or environments change but that is minor compared with changing the whole instrument base every few years.
The instrument doesn't read a thermometer at every level. It has to resolve a mixed incoming microwave beam, confounded with surface noise. You can get some resolution with frequency bands, and a little more with differing angles of view. But it is really squinting, and in the end you have to solve an inverse problem, which takes adventurous mathematics.
The instrument gives a snapshot just twice a day. At surface, even the old min/max thermometers, though read only once, continuously monitored the minn and max for 24 hours, and of course now we have thousands of stations recording at high frequency. A problem with twice a day is that you have to make adjustments for what time of day it is, because of diurnal variation. And that diurnal pattern depends on the level (not clearly known), season etc. A hard enough problem, but the big one is
diurnal drift. It isn't the same time every day, due to orbit changes, and they seem to have trouble deciding exactly what time it is. Roy Spencer says of V6:
For example, years ago we could use certain AMSU-carrying satellites which minimized the effect of diurnal drift, which we did not explicitly correct for. That is no longer possible, and an explicit correction for diurnal drift is now necessary. The correction for diurnal drift is difficult to do well, and we have been committed to it being empirically–based, partly to provide an alternative to the RSS satellite dataset which uses a climate model for the diurnal drift adjustment.
It is a long standing bugbear, and much of the RSS change also seems to be in the drift correction. From their paper abstract:
Previous versions of this dataset used general circulation model output to remove the effects of drifting local measurement time on the measured temperatures. In this paper, we present a method to optimize these adjustments using information from the satellite measurements themselves. The new method finds a global-mean land diurnal cycle that peaks later in the afternoon, leading to improved agreement between measurements made by co-orbiting satellites.


https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/ne ... isons.html

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/ver ... 1-cdecade/
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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