Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2
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rmay635703
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If Nissan streamlined the leaf it could easily go 200 miles EPA but on a 48kwhr battery and priced below the fictional 3 and Bolt
jhm614
Well-known member
Interesting. I wonder if it's possible we will see another chemistry change prior to Leaf 2.0? I'm thinking Nissan will need a 42kWh option to hit the 150 mile range. So, I am expecting something like this:
There’s a quote from Green Car Reports from Brian Maragno, Nissan North America’s director of electric-vehicle marketing and sales strategy. He says “We think the all-new Leaf will exceed expectations in range, technology, design, and value.”
If we concentrate on range and value, the current leaders are:
Hyundai Ioniq – 124 miles, $29.5K
Chevy Bolt – 238 miles, $37.5K
So Nissan could slot in:
Leaf 1.0 30kWh – 107 miles, $22.5K (while supplies last)
Hyundai Ioniq – 124 miles, $29.5K
Leaf 2.0 42kWh – 155 miles, $32,5K
Leaf 2.0 60kWh – 242 miles, $36,750K
Chevy Bolt – 238 miles, $37.5K
That would be a compelling, competitive line up, as long as the design is good. The only gotcha is the Bolt is probably sill faster because Chevy cares about the 0-60 and Nissan doesn’t (at least in the EV world)
There’s a quote from Green Car Reports from Brian Maragno, Nissan North America’s director of electric-vehicle marketing and sales strategy. He says “We think the all-new Leaf will exceed expectations in range, technology, design, and value.”
If we concentrate on range and value, the current leaders are:
Hyundai Ioniq – 124 miles, $29.5K
Chevy Bolt – 238 miles, $37.5K
So Nissan could slot in:
Leaf 1.0 30kWh – 107 miles, $22.5K (while supplies last)
Hyundai Ioniq – 124 miles, $29.5K
Leaf 2.0 42kWh – 155 miles, $32,5K
Leaf 2.0 60kWh – 242 miles, $36,750K
Chevy Bolt – 238 miles, $37.5K
That would be a compelling, competitive line up, as long as the design is good. The only gotcha is the Bolt is probably sill faster because Chevy cares about the 0-60 and Nissan doesn’t (at least in the EV world)
42kWh... 48kWh... 60kWh... is there any sources for these numbers I see posted so often? The only data I've seen points to 37.44kWh.
155 miles for 32.5k? This just a guesstimate?
I grow tired of baseless speculation. Vague quotes by marketing professionals trained in avoiding details while hyping their product isn't particularly good "data".
Maybe we don't have enough data, or we want to ignore the actual data we have because it points in a direction we don't like.
155 miles for 32.5k? This just a guesstimate?
I grow tired of baseless speculation. Vague quotes by marketing professionals trained in avoiding details while hyping their product isn't particularly good "data".
Maybe we don't have enough data, or we want to ignore the actual data we have because it points in a direction we don't like.
TonyWilliams
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phr00t said:
Oh, come on, this data isn't terribly hard to find:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104610_next-nissan-leaf-confirmed-for-60-kwh-battery-200-miles-of-range
1) Nissan and Renault announced that they are using the same cells in the new Renault 40-422kW battery. What are the odds that they ARE NOT going to use the same cells in a 40-42kWh LEAF?
2) They will keep on the classic 2017 LEAF -30kWh simply because the tooling is paid for and it still sells well.
3) The 60 kWh battery was shown several years ago. Search old information that it's boring.
https://electrek.co/2016/11/10/nissan-2017-leaf-trim-details-30-kwh-battery-range/
TonyWilliams said:
That "confirmed 200 mile 60kWh" article you link is basing that whole conclusion on the quote "It's coming, can't say when". This is the "vague marketing hype" type of "data" that I referred to. A 60kWh option might still just be an expensive option 2 years from now, and that quote would still be valid.
I hope they do use the same battery as in the new Renault, but that is only a hope. The article I linked had this to say about the 37.44kWh battery calculation: "this is a bit disappointing since the first information I got months ago was that the facelifted Nissan Leaf would get at least 41-42 kWh of usable battery capacity." Probably was thinking about the same Renault battery potential as you.
The 30kWh sold well because it was the highest ranged "value" electric car being sold. It will no longer be very shortly, with the Ioniq & eGolf coming. I suspect its sales will drop significantly, unless it lowers its MSRP below $25k. Nissan didn't like keeping the 24kWh options around, I'm doubtful they will want to keep the 30kWh either.
The 60kWh battery pack was a prototype a few years ago: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100775_nissans-60-kwh-200-mile-battery-pack-what-we-know-so-far
Fast forward to a few weeks ago, when asked if the next Leaf would compete with the Bolt, Nissan said, “We can get to 200 or even 300 miles. We Can. The question is cost.”
http://www.automobilemag.com/news/new-nissan-leaf-debuts-september-arrives-years-end/
... which implies they *can* put 200+ mile prototype batteries in, but it is expensive. They are giving themselves an "out" for not offering it immediately, probably as an expensive option down the road.
Personally, I hope they offer a 41kWh+ battery with the 60kWh option for a competitive price. However, there are signs that won't happen & we should curtail our expectations.
The 60kWh is well publicized direct from Nissan.
any other smaller capacities are deduced, but one thing is fairly certain, although the 60kWh fits the same hole area as the 24/30kWh packs, its profile is different, and would need a different floorpan. since the floorpan is now the defining structural element of a car, that is significant.
Nissan 88 had 2 new EVs, a next version "LEAF" and a premium next version "LEAF"
perhaps they kept the 2 cars, perhaps they merged the 2 cars, perhaps they offer 1 car with 2 capacities. I don't know, but 60kWh is what Nissan keeps talking about.
(my personal rumor, is refreshed face lifted LEAF classic with a higher capacity LEAF 1 pack (the rumored 37-42kWh pack), and a new LEAF 2.0 with a 60kWh pack)
any other smaller capacities are deduced, but one thing is fairly certain, although the 60kWh fits the same hole area as the 24/30kWh packs, its profile is different, and would need a different floorpan. since the floorpan is now the defining structural element of a car, that is significant.
Nissan 88 had 2 new EVs, a next version "LEAF" and a premium next version "LEAF"
perhaps they kept the 2 cars, perhaps they merged the 2 cars, perhaps they offer 1 car with 2 capacities. I don't know, but 60kWh is what Nissan keeps talking about.
(my personal rumor, is refreshed face lifted LEAF classic with a higher capacity LEAF 1 pack (the rumored 37-42kWh pack), and a new LEAF 2.0 with a 60kWh pack)
ydnas7 said:
I'm still awaiting a source on this. So far, all I've seen is "It's coming, can't say when" & "we can do 200, 300. We can. Question is cost.". Is there another source I am missing, because these two quotes are vague & the last is arguably dismissive.
jhm614
Well-known member
phr00t said:
So, it sounds like you are asking for predictions the Range and Value of Leaf 2.0 at launch in September and that the predictions should be based on sources presented as definitive info, no speculation. Because Nissan hasn't released any official info, I don't think you are going to get any well-sourced answers to convince you to change your view that Leaf 2.0 will have 134 mi range.
However, if you are willing to consider pure speculation -- such that the 2.0 introduction was delayed until September to allow for the availability of the 60kWh -- or that Nissan is going to use something other than the chemistry in the Easton X-Storage -- then the 42kWh and 60kWh options are back on the table.
Otherwise, just hang tight. Better sourced info will dribble out as we get closer to September. Who knows, maybe you are right and 134 miles will be the max range for 2.0
As long as we are clear 60kWh & 42kWh are nothing much more than speculation. Posters sounded pretty sure of themselves that they had confirmed numbers, which isn't the case. The 37.44kWh number has some numbers from Nissan behind it, which is why it appears to be more than just speculation. I'm not necessarily saying that will be the maximum range, but perhaps their first widely available option.
Anyway, hanging tight.
Anyway, hanging tight.
rmay635703
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Wow, even after using the typical jc08 to EPA conversion (which assumes jc08 is typically 50% bs)
We get 250 miles plus EPA
If you drive your car 18mph it would go 366ish miles
We get 250 miles plus EPA
If you drive your car 18mph it would go 366ish miles
GetOffYourGas
Well-known member
ydnas7 said:
Manhattan is only 13 miles long. An hour and a half to drive the length of the island actually sounds like you made good time to me! This is why I stick to the subways.
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
GetOffYourGas said:
7½ more kwh for less than $20K after incentives sounds good to me
GetOffYourGas
Well-known member
DaveinOlyWA said:
Don't get me wrong - the more options (at appropriate prices), the better. But for me, I need my next EV to get me about 300 miles away (a trip I take roughly every other weekend). There are DCQC along the route, but the longest stretch between them is 150 miles (counting the CCS/CHAdeMO ones - Tesla's largest gap is <100 miles). 37.44kWh wouldn't cover that gap comfortably, so it's a useless upgrade to me, regardless of the price.
TonyWilliams
Well-known member
^^^^^^* You have to stop posting all these facts!!!
It's all smoke and mirrors, I tell ya.
It's all smoke and mirrors, I tell ya.
TonyWilliams said:
@ydnas7's image is from this article, which we've already referenced in this discussion:
http://www.autoblog.com/2016/06/20/nissan-200-mile-leaf-coming/#slide-endcap
It is no doubt a 60kWh+ battery is on their "roadmap", which is what that image is showing. It is also no doubt they have made a 60kWh prototype battery.
If you ask them recently about matching the Bolt's range (which would require around a 60kWh battery pack), which I've quoted before in this thread, Nissan responds saying "We can do 200 or 300 miles. We Can. The question is Cost." Perhaps the economics doesn't allow them to reach their "roadmap" goal yet, at least not as a base model at release.
There is no confirmed 60kWh battery pack for the upcoming Leaf. There is no confirmed 37.44kWh battery pack for the upcoming Leaf. The "facts" that keep getting thrown around are prototypes, concepts & marketing hype. There is a little more data that points to a 37.44kWh battery pack, and it may fit into the current pricing model of a base offering (e.g. around $30k USD).
Some more sources showing the next Nissan Leaf's battery may disappoint, with ranges less than the Bolt. Let's run some new numbers.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/12/16/ghosn-hints-at-substantial-ces-reveal-but-the-leafs-new-battery-could-disappoint-at-first/#28b382584b08
"Nissan’s long-awaited second generation of its battery-electric Leaf could make a public appearance as early as in a few weeks. However, the car’s range could initially be a little less than the expected 400 kilometers (250 miles) per the optimistic Japanese standard."
"The not-so-good news is that rumors won’t die in Yokohama that Nissan may have a little problem with its battery, which could lead “to a little disappointment” when the new Leaf finally is announced. In its first year of existence, the new Leaf’s range could be not quite as breath-taking, consistent Yokohama scuttlebutt says, and the far-ranging version could come a little later as an option."
If we run some estimations from the first quote, saying the range will initially be a little less than 400 km using the Japanese standard (JC08):
JC08 says the current 84 EPA Leaf gets 141 miles, according to http://www.hybridcars.com/ids-concept-foreshadows-60-kwh-2018-nissan-leaf/
So, that is a scale of 59.57%. Apply that to 400 km, you get 238 km, or 147.886 EPA miles. However, it was said it would be a little less than this.
The next Nissan Leaf still could definitely have only 134 miles, maybe a little more from more than expected aero improvements. Still supports a 37.44kWh battery.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/12/16/ghosn-hints-at-substantial-ces-reveal-but-the-leafs-new-battery-could-disappoint-at-first/#28b382584b08
"Nissan’s long-awaited second generation of its battery-electric Leaf could make a public appearance as early as in a few weeks. However, the car’s range could initially be a little less than the expected 400 kilometers (250 miles) per the optimistic Japanese standard."
"The not-so-good news is that rumors won’t die in Yokohama that Nissan may have a little problem with its battery, which could lead “to a little disappointment” when the new Leaf finally is announced. In its first year of existence, the new Leaf’s range could be not quite as breath-taking, consistent Yokohama scuttlebutt says, and the far-ranging version could come a little later as an option."
If we run some estimations from the first quote, saying the range will initially be a little less than 400 km using the Japanese standard (JC08):
JC08 says the current 84 EPA Leaf gets 141 miles, according to http://www.hybridcars.com/ids-concept-foreshadows-60-kwh-2018-nissan-leaf/
So, that is a scale of 59.57%. Apply that to 400 km, you get 238 km, or 147.886 EPA miles. However, it was said it would be a little less than this.
The next Nissan Leaf still could definitely have only 134 miles, maybe a little more from more than expected aero improvements. Still supports a 37.44kWh battery.
