Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?
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alozzy
Well-known member
- Three year old car means most of the depreciation has been accrued already. Big reason I own a 2013 Leaf, cars are a money pit
- Battery warranty should be good until 2022, not too shabby
- Too big, if what you want is a subcompact...
- Auto-pilot personally scares the hell out of me. I work in IT and know all too well that every piece of software ever written has bugs
evnow
Well-known member
Lowest price today is 46800.alozzy said:
+ tax = 52,000
Mode 3
$35,000
- 7,500
+ tax
= $30,000
Since CPO gets extra warranty - that is not a major concern. Size is a big concern, though.
dgpcolorado
Well-known member
I'll play:SageBrush said:
"3 years old" likely means that any problems that cropped up have been fixed and the early year problems were mostly corrected by the 2014 cars. The first couple of years of Model 3s might have design and manufacturing issues that need to be fixed; we will see about that. I am reluctant to buy a first or second year 3.
"Dwindling warranty" is a mixed bag. A three year old CPO Model S below 50k miles would have a new 4 year 50k miles basic warranty and five years unlimited miles left on the drive train warranty. The standard Model 3 has an 8 year 100k mile warranty on the battery only; the rest of the drive train, including that new PMAC motor, is only 4 years 50k miles from what I've read. Although an expensive item, the battery seems least likely to need warranty service based on the history of other Teslas.
"Too big" becomes "too small for the Model 3" for me. I've come to love the cargo space of my S and since I have one car in a two car garage -- no need for an ICEV anymore -- the size of the car isn't much of an issue.
"Less range" is the most valid concern; I am living with that issue now. Of much greater importance is "slower Supercharging." However one might buy a CPO 85 or 70 instead, albeit for a somewhat higher price.
"No AP2," while true, depends on whether one wants it. AP would be utterly useless where I live and on road trips I find that I enjoy driving the S, so I don't pine for AP help. This one depends a lot on where one lives and drives I think.
"No tax credits" is a variable factor. I am too low income to qualify for the federal tax credit, so that one is irrelevant, but I would be able to use the Colorado tax credit on a 3 purchase. My guess is that there will be more than a few Model 3 buyers who will not be able to use all of the federal tax credit and that many of them will be surprised to learn of this after the fact.
Some factors that detract from the Model 3:
No hatchback. I really like the hatchback on my S. It makes loading cargo really easy, especially large, awkward things such as my mountain bike.
No instrument cluster. I use my IC all the time on my S, especially the power meter and the turn-by-turn nav display. I also wonder whether the warning lights, such as TPMS and headlight "brights" will be readily apparent on the Model 3 display. The power meter on the 3 is a poor substitute for the one on the S from the videos I've seen of it.
Smaller flat panel display. I find that the large Model S display is really handy, especially with the vertical orientation that allows me to use two screens at the same time: upper and lower. For road trips I have nav on the top screen and the energy projection plot on the lower screen. Very easy to see and use for tracking my progress on a road trip leg to the next Supercharger Station. (I am currently in central Oregon for the eclipse, after driving 1200 miles from home; the Tesla nav display helps a lot with making road trips of that sort quite routine). The smaller horizontal orientation screen on the 3 figures to be less easy to use for such things.
I don't know whether I will go for a new 3 or another CPO S with a bigger battery (for faster Supercharging). I am hoping that by 2019 -- full Colorado tax credit still available on a new 3 -- we will have a sense of how well the early Model 3s are performing. Since I am 338 miles from the nearest Service Center, it is not trivial to get warranty issues corrected, as it is for most people.
dgpcolorado
Well-known member
That's a bit misleading. The lesser priced CPOs disappear so quickly that you won't often see them listed. One needs to be working with a CPO advisor to grab one that fits one's wants when it pops up. CPOs below $40k do exist (although if they have mileage over 50k they get only a two year, up to 100k total miles, basic warranty).evnow said:
GRA
Well-known member
The battery would certainly be too small to take supercharging at anything like the maximum rate, and if you want to road trip 140 miles max equates to only 98 miles max if you SC to 80% and keep a 10% reserve, before any deductions for anything else (HVAC, cold, rain, climb, headwinds), when brand new. Given that the SC network now still has gaps that an S60 has to drive with care (or simply can't cross) I don't see the S40 as being really viable for road trips, and given the typical Model S buyer's income, I agree with them that the S40 wasn't worth continuing with. Judging by what I see on a daily basis, even the S60 has sold a lot less well than Model S' with bigger batteries. I don't doubt that there were some people like you who would have been okay with an S40 and SC, but Tesla needed to cover the majority of their market first, and make the greatest profit per car to keep going.evnow said:
edatoakrun
Well-known member
The history of the mythical "$50,000" (the quotation marks are there for a reason) model TSLA S, the (equally mythical?) "$35,000" model 3, began with the same Prophesy:jlv said:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
By the next year TSLA was shuffling CEOs, the Fremont factory was not yet in the plan, and the definition of "affordable" had been stretched to "around $50,000":
http://www.mercurynews.com/2007/11/28/tesla-names-new-ceo/
By Spring 2009, "affordable" had become $57,400, before the tax credit:
https://www.wired.com/2009/03/leaked-photo-te/
But TSLA never actually produced any "affordable" 40 kWh pack Ss for sale for that price, and instead announced:
http://jalopnik.com/laptesla-kills-the-50-000-model-s-makes-the-media-the-464831618
And today, after the subsequently killing off another lower priced Ss, you can buy an "affordable" Model S, with a starting price of only $69,500, or up to $152,0000, fully optioned
https://www.tesla.com/models/design
But surely with TSLAs production of the "more affordable car", the "$35,000 model 3", which will cost all buyers at least $50,000, for at least the next few months...
This time, it will be different.
alozzy
Well-known member
Just a few examples in my neck of the woods:
http://www.paramountmotorsnw.com/inventory.asp?showOnly=Tesla
It happens to be the dealer I purchased my Leaf from, as I knew that he sold used Tesla's too but I couldn't afford one. There are other examples...
http://www.paramountmotorsnw.com/inventory.asp?showOnly=Tesla
It happens to be the dealer I purchased my Leaf from, as I knew that he sold used Tesla's too but I couldn't afford one. There are other examples...
EatsShootsandLeafs
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I strongly advise you to watch the 24 min video on youtube entitled "My 2,000+ mile Full Self Driving Tesla Model X AutoPilot Trip from DC to Naples | AP2".IssacZachary said:
This video will present you with how absolutely amazing it is to be on the highway and not touching anything and having a personal chauffeur via a computer.
This video will also help show some of the very significant limitations in autopilot right now. The guy doesn't make you watch his entire 2000 mile trip but he stops at a few points to show you where autopilot was strange. In one case it crosses lanes for no reason. In another he's coming up on a curve and autopilot does not brake enough at all and he has to take control. It's really amazing in a way that this is even released to the public. I used eap only briefly on a test drive and it was cool. I think the future for it is super bright, but it looks like to me it works very well about 99.999% of the time. And then that other part of the time it acts like gremlins have taken over, and it's that part of the time you need to take control or else something [very] bad can happen.
EatsShootsandLeafs
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So after the next few months time frame that you reference, when some people are actually buying the Model 3 for $35,000, what are you going to use then as your main complaint?edatoakrun said:
Do you not realize that in 2016 CR rated tesla owners as the happiest with their cars of all vehicle brands? And Nissan was near the bottom of the list?
EatsShootsandLeafs
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I actually agree it's an accident waiting to happen, but strangely despite its obvious shortcomings evidently it is resulting in lower crash numbers than human drivers--it's already increasing safety. So what that tells me is that humans are even worse drivers than I originally thought.Joe6pack said:
We're very close to the point where accident rates of self-driving cars, at least on highways, are minuscule percentages of those from human drivers. Wouldn't surprise me if very shortly accidents are reduced by 90% using something like EAP vs manual driving. After all what is the main result of crashes on highways? Rear-endings because people are not braking in time for stopped traffic. Auto braking alone can help that. Throw in some extra cleverness from EAP and it can basically be more or less eliminated. Eventually even my 90% won't be optimistic enough.
internalaudit
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DaveinOlyWA said:
How is it over in the US? Are you guys able to get a standby auto loan with a better rate than what Tesla Financing offers? I'm definitely not putting another $2,500 unless I'm able to secure financing better than Tesla Canada Financing rate or get a general sense how to pre-qualify. It's just odd because we other car makers, we can settle the price and trim but everything boils down to credit approval, usually from the manufacturer's financing arm (which is incented to approve the loan as long as borrowers have good credit and have good enough income). The deposit (in case it was required but I think usually it isn't) is also refundable (I believe) if financing falls through.
With Tesla, there's a 2-3 month lead time from when we put $2,500 (apart from the original $1,000) and you don't get to apply for the loan until 30 days before delivery. Thinking it through, there's a risk that one doesn't get approved by Tesla Financing (because in Canada they are back by two major banks) unless somehow Tesla is subsidizing the interest rate in the background because it's much easier to sell $50k USD cars when financed over 8 years versus 4, especially if interest rate for both terms are alike or close to each other.
I'm really not in a rush to get a BEV (unless our own $11k provincial incentive is taken down) and that 140 mile driving constraint is surely another good reason why we're in no rush because with Tesla's way of bundling features, it will cost an arm and a leg to get the winter weather package and TACC / dynamic cruise control but I'd have to pay $9k to get both when with Toyota or Nissan, both may be included in a $3-4k upgrade.
internalaudit
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EatsShootsandLeafs said:
I'm not a basher of anything and just choose to vote with my wallet.
For now, that may be the case with Tesla because it doesn't cost a lot to appease angry customers bringing their cars in every so often and because the Service Centers have decent capacity to get things done (though I've read there are some more delays for a handful of owners over at TMC).
People are willing to put up with repairs because there is no decent BEV alternatives and Tesla did change the warranty to unlimited over 8-years for the battery and DU (or something to that effect).
Most cars are still under warranty and only a few ones are coming off. Those CPO Teslas get at least another two years warranty, correct? I wouldn't be complaining much with a rental car and costs covered under the warranty. But things may change once the true cost of ownership becomes more transparent.
Also fast forward when there are 200k Model 3 cars on the road, things could look very different over at Service Centers, at Super Charger Network stations and first two years of quality can be not at par with what people have been used to. Model S and X owners came from a lot of high-end cars that aren't known for reliability but many of us only willing to spend up to $45-55k may not be used to cars that are less reliable than our Honda's or Toyota's.
Nissan isn't known for reliability too but at least options are less pricey though I doubt AWD will be offered on the Leaf but hopefully it will be on spin off BEVs.
evnow
Well-known member
edatoakrun said:
No need for FUD. We all remember this.
I suggest you do similar research on how Volt got from "comfortably below $30k" to $40k when it finally came out.
edatoakrun
Well-known member
Some being a very small number, is what makes your statement almost true.EatsShootsandLeafs said:
Since TSLA will lose money on each of those ~$36k loss-leaders, it will likely make them quite unattractive relative to the more expensive 3s it hopes to sell in large numbers, and (factoring in the large govt subsidies) make a profit on.
Just as it did on the "~$50,000" (~$57,400) model Ss (hoping to, but never actually making any profit on them, despite the large subsidies).
And the same defects that will make the ~35k model 3 noncompetitive with the higher priced model 3's, will likely make it noncompetitive with the much lower total cost of ownership Gen two LEAF.
The LEAF, of course, has a well-deserved reputation for reliability.internalaudit said:
Well, I always said the Gen one volt was also a poor value, though not as poor as the Tesla S.evnow said:
But is it really necessary for to take this thread off-topic, moderator?
SageBrush said:
How is it FUD. I read through both threads regarding the most recent updates with both threads beginning Thursday or Friday of last week. Owners reported cars braking from 75 mph down to 45 mph for no reason and almost causing accidents on the freeway. Owners also reported the system following black lines on the pavement instead of the white lines and leaving their lane. A couple of owners reported that they no longer trusted the system and would no longer use it. And it seems to be universally agreed that AP1 is superior to AP2. How is this FUD?
I was researching as I am interested in possibly replacing my LEAF with a used MS. Right now, I would take a car without AutoPilot over one with it. Seriously.
Your response demonstrates a real lack of credibility.
edatoakrun
Well-known member
Just accept the fact that some witless people cry FUD, showing they are unable to make any useful comment.Joe6pack said:
But on this subject, exactly what do people expect get for $5000 option autopilot in the model 3, beyond what you will get with the much less-expensive Nissan ProPILOT option on the Gen two LEAF?
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