jonathanfields4ever
Posts: 86
Joined: Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:55 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Feb 2018
Location: Kyoto

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:24 pm

2011RedLeaf wrote:Maybe you haven't heard of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect?

Osborne effect is an issue if you are the only game in town. Doesn't work if you are offering Old Maid while people are becoming more interested in Texas Holdem.

I think that Nissan USA is more at risk of the Commodore 64 effect. Had an excellent early offering that was ahead of its time and multiple magazines devoted to it and one of the earliest on-line forums. Fell behind, didn't catch up, and people moved on. I refuse to be suckered into a repeat of my 2011. Bolt is looking better and better.


If you’re ready for a new car, get that Bolt. Everyone I know who has one absolutely loves it.

The 2018 Leaf is a good car. I’m really enjoying mine, but is hasn’t evolved a great deal from the first gen Leaf. The only competitive advantage it has is price, which will disappear if and when the Model 3 SR finally hits, or if Chevy makes all the electric models they were planning before the Bolt was released (I’m a bit worried given how poorly the Bolt has sold despite its awesomeness).

2011RedLeaf
Posts: 44
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:49 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 3999

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:16 am

jonathanfields4ever wrote:
2011RedLeaf wrote:Maybe you haven't heard of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect?

Osborne effect is an issue if you are the only game in town. Doesn't work if you are offering Old Maid while people are becoming more interested in Texas Holdem.

I think that Nissan USA is more at risk of the Commodore 64 effect. Had an excellent early offering that was ahead of its time and multiple magazines devoted to it and one of the earliest on-line forums. Fell behind, didn't catch up, and people moved on. I refuse to be suckered into a repeat of my 2011. Bolt is looking better and better.


If you’re ready for a new car, get that Bolt. Everyone I know who has one absolutely loves it.

The 2018 Leaf is a good car. I’m really enjoying mine, but is hasn’t evolved a great deal from the first gen Leaf. The only competitive advantage it has is price, which will disappear if and when the Model 3 SR finally hits, or if Chevy makes all the electric models they were planning before the Bolt was released (I’m a bit worried given how poorly the Bolt has sold despite its awesomeness).



I have a '17 Volt Premier with Driver's Confidence II. I really like the lane following/blindspot monitoring/ACC and will insist on it in any future cars. I am not willing to make payments on two "Premiers". Current Volt LT has no DCII available. I understand the '19s will.
So far, no dealer in Albuquerque has been able to keep a Bolt on the lot long enough for me to see if my fat seat fits well in the maligned Bolt narrow, hard seat.

geefish
Posts: 25
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:51 am
Location: Tasmania, Australia

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:05 am

First official comments from a Nissan executive regarding the larger battery Leaf.

https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/201 ... 00-hp.html

User avatar
SalisburySam
Gold Member
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:01 am
Delivery Date: 24 Feb 2012
Leaf Number: 018156
Location: Salisbury, NC

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:25 pm

geefish wrote:It's already far later than most people hoped. I was excited about this Leaf, but I've moved on. Nissan really needs to get it out there this fall if they want to stay in the game."

Nissan currently has the best selling electric car ever. It it is selling about 8000 new Leafs per month and one of its factories can't keep up with demand. It is the number one selling car in Norway this year, regardless of fuel source. That's never happened anywhere else in the world with any other electric car or manufacturer. The head of Nissan at the release of the second generation Leaf stated that Nissan makes money on every gen 2 Leaf it sells and that it was making money on some of the first generation as well. No other electric vehicle manufacturer is doing that. Nissan are well and truely ahead of the game - people are just judging them by a different set of parameters.

Er, not so sure about that. An independent engineering company has a YouTube video that shows Tesla is enjoying about a 30% profit on the Model 3. I don't know the details of the analysis, but that's the biggest profit margin in the EV world that I've heard of. Here's a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY
SalisburySam
-------------

2012 SL Super Black
12,900 miles, 10 bars showing, 75% SOH, 49.80 Ahr

Model 3 - Long Range, Premium Upgrade, Extended AutoPilot, Full Self-Driving, 15 miles on odo
Delivered: July 19, 2018
Ecstatic-ness began: July 19, 2018

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1839
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:39 pm

SalisburySam wrote:
geefish wrote:It's already far later than most people hoped. I was excited about this Leaf, but I've moved on. Nissan really needs to get it out there this fall if they want to stay in the game."

Nissan currently has the best selling electric car ever. It it is selling about 8000 new Leafs per month and one of its factories can't keep up with demand. It is the number one selling car in Norway this year, regardless of fuel source. That's never happened anywhere else in the world with any other electric car or manufacturer. The head of Nissan at the release of the second generation Leaf stated that Nissan makes money on every gen 2 Leaf it sells and that it was making money on some of the first generation as well. No other electric vehicle manufacturer is doing that. Nissan are well and truely ahead of the game - people are just judging them by a different set of parameters.

Er, not so sure about that. An independent engineering company has a YouTube video that shows Tesla is enjoying about a 30% profit on the Model 3. I don't know the details of the analysis, but that's the biggest profit margin in the EV world that I've heard of. Here's a link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY


Yeah, most serious analyses indicate that Tesla is making money on a per-unit basis on all three models of cars. The company is in the red because they are investing heavily in the future. Someday soon that needs to end, and the company needs to be self-supporting, but I digress. The point remains that they are making and selling the S, X, and 3 profitably.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

Evoforce
Posts: 820
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:05 am

I have to give Nissan a thumbs up for providing and sticking to manufacturing EV's. I also give them a thumbs up for many of their franchised dealerships providing quick charging. When they finally have liquid TMS on their traction battery, it will be a fantastic day! Their previous cars have been well engineered (except battery), and with what I am expecting, it will finally have a well engineered, long mileage capable, traction battery with TMS. I really want them to do well.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

User avatar
SalisburySam
Gold Member
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:01 am
Delivery Date: 24 Feb 2012
Leaf Number: 018156
Location: Salisbury, NC

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:06 am

Evoforce wrote:I have to give Nissan a thumbs up for providing and sticking to manufacturing EV's. I also give them a thumbs up for many of their franchised dealerships providing quick charging. When they finally have liquid TMS on their traction battery, it will be a fantastic day! Their previous cars have been well engineered (except battery), and with what I am expecting, it will finally have a well engineered, long mileage capable, traction battery with TMS. I really want them to do well.

As do I. As I mentioned in another post, I really, really like my LEAF for almost everything. Unfortunately, it weakens over time at a vehicle’s primary purpose: actually getting me someplace. That someplace has had to become nearer and nearer every year to an unacceptable level.

My opinion: Nissan has not taken advantage in any way of its first mover advantage. From an excellent, ground-breaking, market-dominant all electric vehicle in 2011-2012, Nissan added only some tweaks over the years (heat pump, faster charger, slightly better battery chemistry, fewer nag screens) and the really disappointing (at least to me) and uncompetitive 2018 range increase to only 150 miles. During that time it also removed some useful features like the button to turn off the always annoying backup beeping, and the electronic parking brake. Nissan also perpetuated LEAF weaknesses such as the ancient vintage of the maps, a horrible (to me) voice command system, and a truly non-intuitive user interface for navigation. The LEAF of today, I believe, could have been so very much more, easily a Tesla Model 3 lookalike or possibly more, had the early years’ management team decided to leverage their lead. There is always an opportunity for redemption and MY19 might be that chance for the LEAF. It is just sad that whatever that vehicle will be could probably have been done in MY16 and been a Volt/Bolt/Tesla-killer car.

And it gets worse as basic driver expectations are escalating. You can imagine many areas where a gee-whiz feature of today will become standard soon but I see at least two: In 2010 when I registered for my LEAF, who could envision vehicles from multiple manufacturers having 300+ mile ranges? Fast forward 8 years and here we are. That could mean 300+ ranges will rapidly become table stakes possibly in base configurations with optional much longer ranges. Navigation systems based on static, expensive-to-update map information more than a few months old will be phased out and instead live Waze-like current information online will be available as been done for years on smartphones and tablets making this more the norm.

It is an exciting time for electric vehicles, I think. What I have not seen unfortunately, is the will on Nissan’s part to leapfrog to a position better than a few years behind other competitors’ products. Could they come back? Certainly. Will they? Unlikely, given the glacial pace and limited scope of improvements in the 2011-2018 model years.

That said, I stilll love my LEAF...until this Thursday when I get my Model 3.
SalisburySam
-------------

2012 SL Super Black
12,900 miles, 10 bars showing, 75% SOH, 49.80 Ahr

Model 3 - Long Range, Premium Upgrade, Extended AutoPilot, Full Self-Driving, 15 miles on odo
Delivered: July 19, 2018
Ecstatic-ness began: July 19, 2018

smkettner
Posts: 7151
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:57 pm

No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV

WetEV
Posts: 2194
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:59 pm

smkettner wrote:No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.


Even if the Nissan EV was the cheapest EV to operate per mile?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

smkettner
Posts: 7151
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: 2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:04 pm

WetEV wrote:
smkettner wrote:No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.
Even if the Nissan EV was the cheapest EV to operate per mile?
How much does a battery cost every 50,000 miles? Less?
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV

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