DeeAgeaux
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:52 pm

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:54 am

evnow wrote:
DeeAgeaux wrote:The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

The spokesman for Tesla already quoted $40k.

The most likely outcome is base Model 3 will be $15k over base Leaf by 2018.

$25 vs $40 (+/- 2k)


There is no Tesla spokesman with greater authority than Elon Musk.

And he again repeated half the price of a Model S or $35k for the base Model 3 on Nov 25 2014.

"We need the Gigafactory because there currently isn't enough battery cell capacity for a high-volume, pure electric car at any price," explains Musk. The Model 3 is 20% smaller than the Model S, so the battery pack can be just 80% of the size, but we're aiming for a 50% price reduction from the S, so we need the factory to make it affordable."

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/entertainm ... -p85d-mars


And Tesla is not just talking. They are pouring concrete on a $5 Billion battery factory to make it happen.

And I just saw Carlos quote $25/26k in Japan.

But the LEAF won't get the big battery for 25k. That is the one people will compare with the base Model 3 .

GregH
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Leaf Number: 26967
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:16 am

If they load down the 2016+ Leaf with a bigger battery I hope they can also provide a more powerful motor..
Other weight savings and aero improvements would be nice but for a practical mass market car I wouldn't expect huge gains.

As for the QC network, the model S needs 90-120kW because the car isn't very efficient. If Nissan can keep the V2 Leaf more or less as efficient as V1 then 50kW (or Kia 100kW?) Chademo wouldn't be all that much different than a 120kW supercharged model S given only a portion of the charge is at full power anyway.

Now with a strongly republican congress we'll surely get new tax incentives to cover these larger batteries in upcoming vehicles right?
'17 blue Volt Premier w/ACC
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'11 SL blue Leaf
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Gen1 & Gen2 EV1 1997-2003
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pkulak
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Location: Portland, OR

Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:29 am

GregH wrote:Now with a strongly republican congress we'll surely get new tax incentives to cover these larger batteries in upcoming vehicles right?


Probably just rebates to cover the cost of coal rolling conversions.

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dgpcolorado
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Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:46 pm

GregH wrote:...As for the QC network, the model S needs 90-120kW because the car isn't very efficient. If Nissan can keep the V2 Leaf more or less as efficient as V1 then 50kW (or Kia 100kW?) Chademo wouldn't be all that much different than a 120kW supercharged model S given only a portion of the charge is at full power anyway...
As Rebel44 pointed out upthread, a major problem with Chademo is the lack of redundancy. So far as I am aware, the minimum Supercharger station has 4 chargers and many/most have more, sometimes double or triple that number.

Chademo chargers have also turned out to be unreliable in many areas, according to numerous reports here at MNL: broken, limited access, or expensive to use. In my view there is simply no comparison between Tesla's Supercharger network and the Chademo model. Yes, the Tesla will likely cost more than a similar range Chademo-port-equipped Nissan. For local or regional travel the Nissan might well be a better buy. But if one is interested in a one BEV household with the ability to do interstate travel — as I am — paying extra for the Tesla Model III might well be worth it. We shall see.

As for your comment about the Supercharger not being able to charge at full speed to full charge, while true, it overlooks how the Supercharger network is best used. Those doing interstate travel charge only enough to get to the next station plus a modest reserve. That means that the vast majority of charging is done in the bottom half of the battery at full speed. This only works because one can rely on a Supercharger spot being open at the next station, 80-130 miles away*, thanks to the number of chargers at each location. It is a completely different paradigm from the Chademo model (as currently implemented).


* Some Supercharger station distances here on my home turf:

Code: Select all

Station 1          Station 2         Miles   Terrain
Denver             Silverthorne      79.8    major elevation change (Eisenhower tunnel)
Silverthorne       Glenwood Springs  92.5    major elevation change (Vail Pass)
Glenwood Springs   Grand Junction    90.4    little elevation change
Grand Junction     Green River       97.1    little elevation change
Green River        Richfield         123     significant elevation change (Wasatch Pass)

Grand Junction     Moab              113     little elevation change
Moab               Blanding          74.4    significant elevation change
Blanding           Farmington        133     little elevation change
Farmington         Gallup            121     little elevation change
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
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evnow
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Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:02 pm

DeeAgeaux wrote:There is no Tesla spokesman with greater authority than Elon Musk.

And he again repeated half the price of a Model S or $35k for the base Model 3 on Nov 25 2014

.....

But the LEAF won't get the big battery for 25k. That is the one people will compare with the base Model 3 .


Tesla doesn't have much of a history of keeping promises of price or timeline. The fact that the spokesman even talked about $40k should give an indication. Musk has also talked about "inflation adjusted" price. BTW, is he talking about base Model S price or the avg selling price ? There is a lot of wiggle room when one talks about a relative price, rather than an absolute.

OP was comparing base Leaf & Model E, so my statement stands. Now, Leaf may not even have a 200 mile range option - so a better comparison would be Infiniti EV, which I think will be priced the same as Model 3 and have similar range.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

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evnow
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:08 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:Chademo chargers have also turned out to be unreliable in many areas, according to numerous reports here at MNL: broken, limited access, or expensive to use. In my view there is simply no comparison between Tesla's Supercharger network and the Chademo model. Yes, the Tesla will likely cost more than a similar range Chademo-port-equipped Nissan. For local or regional travel the Nissan might well be a better buy. But if one is interested in a one BEV household with the ability to do interstate travel — as I am — paying extra for the Tesla Model III might well be worth it. We shall see.


The comparison between chademo & superchargers is similar to that between Android and Apple ecosystem. The only way chademo overcomes inherent disadvantages of a multi-owner uncoordinated layout is by overwhelming superchargers in terms of distribution and numbers. The reliability would be built on large numbers - rather than centrally managed.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

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EVDRIVER
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:52 pm

GregH wrote:If they load down the 2016+ Leaf with a bigger battery I hope they can also provide a more powerful motor..


Yes, there is not reason not to do this, for an EV like that not to be in the 8 sec range is sad. 10 seconds is pathetic.

KJD
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Location: SLC, UT
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:54 pm

evnow wrote:The comparison between chademo & superchargers is similar to that between Android and Apple ecosystem. The only way chademo overcomes inherent disadvantages of a multi-owner uncoordinated layout is by overwhelming superchargers in terms of distribution and numbers. The reliability would be built on large numbers - rather than centrally managed.

The main problem with CHAdeMO chargers is that they are broken most of the time. There are probably 8 or 10 of them here in Utah and as of today I think there is exactly one that works right now. All of these units have had multiple problems and Nissan does nothing to fix them. ABB does nothing to fix them. The Nissan sales people are as frustrated as I am on this.

How many CHAdeMO chargers are open 24x7 ? Not very many.

Nissan has some work to do if they ever want to expand the EV market beyond niche status.

A LEAF with 180 mile range might help people forget how bad the charging stations are.
2012 SL Delivered 12/08/2011
Sold 05/12/2015
2012 Tesla Model S 85

Zythryn
Posts: 941
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Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:58 pm

evnow wrote:Tesla doesn't have much of a history of keeping promises of price or timeline. The fact that the spokesman even talked about $40k should give an indication. Musk has also talked about "inflation adjusted" price. BTW, is he talking about base Model S price or the avg selling price ? There is a lot of wiggle room when one talks about a relative price, rather than an absolute.

OP was comparing base Leaf & Model E, so my statement stands. Now, Leaf may not even have a 200 mile range option - so a better comparison would be Infiniti EV, which I think will be priced the same as Model 3 and have similar range.


The Roadster ended up at a higher cost.
The S came in exactly where they thought. Although few were ordering it, so Tesla discontinued it.
And yes, many of their stated dates have been off, yet some have been on target.
They are idealists and tend to think they can reach goals faster than they actually do. However, they have delivered on those promises, even though they are late.

As for what price point Musk was talking about, I'm sure it was base price.
No advertising, marketing event, etc have ever stated anything other than base price when talking about a new model offering.

The SC network is a dream to use. It is laid out very logically, although the basic network has not been completed yet. The CHAdeMO network is extremely spotty and is growing in a very haphazard method.
Add to that the built in redundancy of having 3-10 chargers (there are two with only 3 chargers) and better quality and is just plain more reliable.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
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smkettner
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Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn

Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:09 pm

Rebel44 wrote:
Lasareath wrote:Have you ever tried a #CHAdeMo?


Rebel44 wrote:Nice, but without something like Tesla Supercharger network, not good enough.


1. Too slow charging for car with 70+KWh battery

2. Mostly 1 charger per location, which pose big problem with congestion and even bigger, when thy are broken (which isnt exactly rare).

I respectfully disagree that chademo is too slow. Probably too fast for the current LEAF. Larger battery lets chedemo run flat out for about one hour... about right IMO.

Yes more will be needed. Might even be worth the fee when the battery is 70+ kWh.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
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