pkulak
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:25 pm

bigrob90 wrote:
NasGoreList wrote:
GregH wrote:Agree the reliability and redundancy of the growing chademo network leaves something to be desired..
I suspect when we see chademo capable cars with 150+ miles of range we'll also start seeing clusters of chargers deployed to link distant destination. Such a network just wasn't worthwhile for a vehicle with 70-80 miles of range.


I don't think it would be very difficult to have chademo chargers at every gas station along the interstates or in general?


Would the people paying to have them installed be able to make a profit? That's really the only question. As long as the likely answer is no, only a true believer in an EV future would finance it. The only likely candidate would be the EV makers, but only those who plan to actually profit. The compliance vehicle manufacturers have no incentive.


The CHAdeMO stations around here are pretty crowded lately. I have to wait behind someone every third charge or so, and apparently up in Washington it's getting really "bad". Lots of queueing. If one charger is just at 50% capacity from 8am until 10pm, and charging sessions are 20 minutes on average, that's 24 charging sessions a day. Aerovironment charges $7.50 for a charge unless you have a $20/month subscription, so lets just assume that it works out to about $5 a charge for them (I probably use it about 4 times a month on average): that's $120 a day. Subtract 10 kWhs per charge and that's about $100 profit per day.

So, install a $50,000 charger and then pull in $3,000 a month? That math works out. It really works out! I own a house worth $150,000, that needs way more upkeep than a quick charger, and rent is $900. As more and more people start driving electric cars, the chargers will be built.

bigrob90
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:31 pm

pkulak wrote:The CHAdeMO stations around here are pretty crowded lately. I have to wait behind someone every third charge or so, and apparently up in Washington it's getting really "bad". Lots of queueing. If one charger is just at 50% capacity from 8am until 10pm, and charging sessions are 20 minutes on average, that's 24 charging sessions a day. Aerovironment charges $7.50 for a charge unless you have a $20/month subscription, so lets just assume that it works out to about $5 a charge for them (I probably use it about 4 times a month on average): that's $120 a day. Subtract 10 kWhs per charge and that's about $100 profit per day.

So, install a $50,000 charger and then pull in $3,000 a month? That math works out. It really works out! I own a house worth $150,000, that needs way more upkeep than a quick charger, and rent is $900. As more and more people start driving electric cars, the chargers will be built.


Your math works out, yes. I have to think that it does not represent reality, though. If there is easy profit to make, entrepreneurs will definitely look to make it. The exceptions are when the government does something to prevent it. That may be the case here, but I think the more likely issue is that the costs are higher (perhaps maintenance costs, licensing, installation, etc.) and/or the revenues are lower (the number of charges/day would not be sustained). Otherwise, why wouldn't a group of investors just install another Chademo station and get going?
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bigrob90
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:36 pm

pkulak wrote:The CHAdeMO stations around here are pretty crowded lately. I have to wait behind someone every third charge or so, and apparently up in Washington it's getting really "bad". Lots of queueing. If one charger is just at 50% capacity from 8am until 10pm, and charging sessions are 20 minutes on average, that's 24 charging sessions a day. Aerovironment charges $7.50 for a charge unless you have a $20/month subscription, so lets just assume that it works out to about $5 a charge for them (I probably use it about 4 times a month on average): that's $120 a day. Subtract 10 kWhs per charge and that's about $100 profit per day.

So, install a $50,000 charger and then pull in $3,000 a month? That math works out. It really works out! I own a house worth $150,000, that needs way more upkeep than a quick charger, and rent is $900. As more and more people start driving electric cars, the chargers will be built.


This suggests that the costs are even lower than what you said: http://insideevs.com/current-cost-of-50 ... und-16500/

I think the issue must be demand. Has anyone studied actual usage of paid Chademo stations?
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pkulak
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:07 pm

bigrob90 wrote:This suggests that the costs are even lower than what you said: http://insideevs.com/current-cost-of-50 ... und-16500/

I think the issue must be demand. Has anyone studied actual usage of paid Chademo stations?


Wow. I have to believe that every single AV charger up and down I5 sees at least 10 sessions a day. If I was a gas station, I'd get a loan for $20,000 to put one of these in (if it really is that cheap, wow) and charge 3 bucks per session. With just 10 sessions a day that's $600 profit a month, or just about double what a 6-year loan payment would be.

Or, maybe charge three times the price of electricity ($0.30 per kWh) for about the exact same profit and probably better incentives for customers.

Both those schemes would be great deals for all concerned.

And that's worst case. I bet you could see 20+ sessions some days once you've been up on plugshare for a while with a nice 10 score. Hell, I'm about to head down to Eugene for the holidays: 2 charges there and 2 on the way back.

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drees
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:30 am

bigrob90 wrote:I think the issue must be demand. Has anyone studied actual usage of paid Chademo stations?

The EV Project did a bunch of studies. But most of the stations weren't necessarily built in optimal locations and were definitely unreliable making them hard to depend on. And the studies are already old since they were done over a year ago.

http://theevproject.com/documents.php

There are also other reports built on the same data.

Get a QC in the right spot with a fair price and high reliability and it will absolutely have a lot of usage. Put it in a poor spot with with spotty reliability and usage will be minimal.
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bigrob90
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:51 am

drees wrote:The EV Project did a bunch of studies. But most of the stations weren't necessarily built in optimal locations and were definitely unreliable making them hard to depend on. And the studies are already old since they were done over a year ago.

http://theevproject.com/documents.php

There are also other reports built on the same data.

Get a QC in the right spot with a fair price and high reliability and it will absolutely have a lot of usage. Put it in a poor spot with with spotty reliability and usage will be minimal.


I suspect the Chademo stations will only become popular when long-range EVs are on the roads. For a city car, home charging is best. You are likely to complete your tasks and return home on a charge. A quick charge station seems most useful on road trips, but only Teslas are really useful for a road trip. That's probably a big factor in the demand.
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NasGoreList
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:33 am

pkulak wrote:
The CHAdeMO stations around here are pretty crowded lately. I have to wait behind someone every third charge or so, and apparently up in Washington it's getting really "bad". Lots of queueing. If one charger is just at 50% capacity from 8am until 10pm, and charging sessions are 20 minutes on average, that's 24 charging sessions a day. Aerovironment charges $7.50 for a charge unless you have a $20/month subscription, so lets just assume that it works out to about $5 a charge for them (I probably use it about 4 times a month on average): that's $120 a day. Subtract 10 kWhs per charge and that's about $100 profit per day.

So, install a $50,000 charger and then pull in $3,000 a month? That math works out. It really works out! I own a house worth $150,000, that needs way more upkeep than a quick charger, and rent is $900. As more and more people start driving electric cars, the chargers will be built.


Looks like there are hefty subsidies for installing CHAdeMO chargers, which brings the cost down significantly:

Via its EV Advantage program, Nissan is offering commercial organizations (businesses and corporations) up to $15,000 towards the purchase of a CHAdeMO DC quick charger.

Nissan’s program has several stipulation, but the basic idea is to make it easier on the pocketbook for the commercial install of CHAdeMO units.

This program is exclusive to the US and, when combined with the federal government’s $12,000 infrastructure tax credit, can cut approximately 68% of the purchase and install cost of a CHAdeMO charger.

According to Nissan, the average purchase/install/permitting/etc. price for a CHAdeMO unit is the US is $40,000. Nissan’s $15,000 incentive, combined with the federal’s government $12,000 credit, bring the net cost to site host down to $13,000.

At that price, one would think CHAdeMO units will soon be popping up everywhere, but Nissan limits the incentive to only in areas it deems worthy for installs. Think high Nissan LEAF market share cities and you’ll be on the right track.

We’re certain that Nissan would make some exceptions to this, but the majority of the $15,000 incentives will be given out to highly populated West Coast cities.

Isn’t it always the case that the left coasters get the charger while the rest of the nation not-so patiently waits?

For more on Nissan’s EV Advantage program, check out this PDF.

GregH
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:14 am

cwerdna wrote:^^^
WA and OR already have a decent set of reasonably reliable (?) CHAdeMO DC FCs, mostly along I-5: http://www.westcoastgreenhighway.com/index.htm.

Well yeah, that's cool for WA and OR although if you're going 200+ miles your battery will get pretty darn toasty!!
Still wouldn't make sense for I5 (or even 101) between L.A. and S.F.
But when cars have 150+ miles range, the QC spends less % of time at less than max power and the battery doesn't heat up as much (lower C rate charge).

(never thought I'd see myself advocating for really large EV batteries, but for long distance travel it's really a must if you want to go the pure EV route)
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edatoakrun
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:05 am

GregH wrote:...Still wouldn't make sense for I5 (or even 101) between L.A. and S.F....


The primary reason DC chargers are required between L.A. and S.F is not for the benefit of residents of either megalopolis (though you will, of course, have the option to use them).

It is the millions of drivers who live between L.A. and S.F that need the DCs along those highways.

And they need them, whether their BEVs have 60 miles of range, or 180.
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GregH
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Re: 2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:12 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
GregH wrote:...Still wouldn't make sense for I5 (or even 101) between L.A. and S.F....


The primary reason DC chargers are required between L.A. and S.F is not for the benefit of residents of either megalopolis (though you will, of course, have the option to use them).

It is the millions of drivers who live between L.A. and S.F that need the DCs along those highways.

And they need them, whether their BEVs have 60 miles of range, or 180.


hmm.. yeahhh. But I don't see a financial motivation there..

I wouldn't be surprised if the Nissan dealerships in Bakersfield and Stockton could count their Leaf sales with just their fingers (and maybe toes).
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