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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:57 pm

edatoakrun wrote:It's no sure thing, IMO, that Nissan would go to the effort and expense to develop and launch the "30 kWh" pack, only to discontinue it just a few years later.

That would be a possibility - but the early info we saw didn't include that.

I was surprised by the intro of 30 kWh model - jut a year (I thought) away from Gen 2. I think they did it for competitive reasons (knowing Gen 2 would be late). Incremental costs for development may not have been large. It must be a continuous program to make bigger & bigger batteries.
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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:15 pm

edatoakrun wrote:It's no sure thing, IMO, that Nissan would go to the effort and expense to develop and launch the "30 kWh" pack, only to discontinue it just a few years later.




the pack size is far less an investment than the actual makeup of the pack itself. Going from 30 to 40 kwh if using the same electrodes, chemistry, etc is barely any investment at all. Plus we are still looking at the continuous evolving as well
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edatoakrun
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:59 pm

webb14leafs wrote:
It's no sure thing, IMO, that Nissan would go to the effort and expense to develop and launch the "30 kWh" pack, only to discontinue it just a few years later.

Large numbers of BEV buyers world-wide have little need for capacity/range larger than that pack provides, and surely many of those buyers also do not suffer from the dreaded capacity anxiety which inflicts so many on this forum.

Another possibility is that the "40 kWh" pack is just ~the same assembly as the Gen one 2017 "30 kWh" pack, using cells with increased capacity, allowing pack production to continue without a large increase in costs.

Anyway, we should know in a few weeks, if not sooner


It would be interesting to see how many people would purchase a 30kWhr Leaf if the price was ~$20K after dealer and manufacturer incentives and markdowns. I imagine it would sell better than the 40kWhr Leaf with a >$25K market price.

Given the market reality that "30 kWh" Gen one LEAFs are widely available in the US today in the $10k-$15k range, net discounts, tax credits, and rebates, I think your question could be restated as:

It would be interesting to see how many people would purchase a 30 kWhr Leaf if the price was ~$15K after dealer and manufacturer incentives and markdowns. I imagine it would sell better than the 40 kWhr Leaf with a >$20K market price.

IMO, that is also the price/capacity range that will be required to make many buyers really consider BEVs an alternative to the mass-market ICEVs, as long as those vehicles continue to receive the huge tailpipe subsidy, the free use of our atmosphere as their sewer.

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:It's no sure thing, IMO, that Nissan would go to the effort and expense to develop and launch the "30 kWh" pack, only to discontinue it just a few years later...

Another possibility is that the "40 kWh" pack is just ~the same assembly as the Gen one 2017 "30 kWh" pack, using cells with increased capacity, allowing pack production to continue without a large increase in costs...



the pack size is far less an investment than the actual makeup of the pack itself. Going from 30 to 40 kwh if using the same electrodes, chemistry, etc is barely any investment at all. Plus we are still looking at the continuous evolving as well

Did you read my entire comment, including this, before you wrote that?

It will be great news if it turns out that AESC has had a breakthrough, and has been able to increase energy density of its cells ~33% in just a few years, at ~the same production costs, but IMO that's not the most likely of the many possible upcoming announcements on the Gen two pack(s).
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webb14leafs
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:39 am

Given the market reality that "30 kWh" Gen one LEAFs are widely available in the US today in the $10k-$15k range, net discounts, tax credits, and rebates, I think your question could be restated as:

It would be interesting to see how many people would purchase a 30 kWhr Leaf if the price was ~$15K after dealer and manufacturer incentives and markdowns. I imagine it would sell better than the 40 kWhr Leaf with a >$20K market price.

IMO, that is also the price/capacity range that will be required to make many buyers really consider BEVs an alternative to the mass-market ICEVs, as long as those vehicles continue to receive the huge tailpipe subsidy, the free use of our atmosphere as their sewer.


My comment was not considering tax rebates (because they vary for readers), but I agree with everything you said.

internalaudit
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:19 pm

Durandal wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:Edit: Now I read about it some more I see that the clarity EV is essentially a joke, so if the leaf wants to compare favorably to that, it shouldn't be hard.

No surprise you have not heard of it. It's only available in California, and it's purely a compliance car for them. I used to be a big Honda fanboy, but by the time they enter the BEV marketplace, they'll be so far behind... A shame too, because the original Honda Insight was an amazing car from an efficiency standpoint. Now instead they are selling 170hp turbocharged Honda Civics.


I think most car manufacturers are just waiting for battery prices to go down.

I'm no engineer or technically-inclined but looking at a Toyota hybrid, it seems all Toyota has to do is put in a bigger battery pack and remove the gasoline engine. The transmission in its hybrids are already eCVT (planetary gearing).

It's not like the are trying to salvage their engine and transmission (lots of third party sourcing) business / engineering department when all they care about are margins and profits.

It's not that many people can't see that Tesla vehicles are not really low maintenance EVs post-warranty and so far most other BEVs have been out in the market for too short a time to comment on their long-term reliability. After all, car manufacturers have not perfect a lot of components outside of the engine/transmission and BEV batteries and drive units can be the main culprit for reliability concerns.

I concur that those who are not able to adapt will find their market share shrink but many car manufacturers do have the technology or know how to create BEVs. It's just that the bigger battery packs seem to cost much more than the manufacturing of the engines and drive units. Can't blame them for trying to keep their margins up.

Interleaf
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:52 pm

cwerdna wrote:25 kW is about 33.5 hp. It's obvious that by itself is woefully insufficient for highway speeds up steep grades.
I don't want to appear bickering, as we agree more than we disagree on many things, but again, a BEV with a Rex will have at least 30 kWh storage. Whoever is going to climb mountains should turn on their Rex before they even get on the highway, so that by the time the Rex reaches the steep section, it is at 100% SoC (currently disallowed by CARB and BMW). Assume 10% grade, and travelling at 70 mph which on flat ground will require 20 kW. Lifting the EV at 2,000 kg up 1 meter requires 2000*9.8 = 19,600 Ws. The EV is climbing at the rate of 70 mph on 10% grade or 11,200 m/h or 3.11 m/s. Thus power required is 61 kW. 61+20-25 = 56 kW battery depletion rate. With 30 kWh of storage, the battery is depleted in 32 minutes (and 60 minutes for a 60 kWh battery). In 32 minutes, the EV climbs 6,000 meters (almost 4 miles) vertical. How many highways are there in the US that have 6 km elevation gain at 10% grade? Probably none. So we conclude that if the Rex could turn on at 100% SoC, the i3 would be capable of keeping up at 70 mph climbing speed everywhere.
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Interleaf
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:59 am

GRA wrote:Yes, it's true and it was widely discussed at the time here. The blame doesn't lie with CARB, it's with BMW for choosing the route they did solely to maximize their credits. There simply wouldn't be a BEVx category if they hadn't asked CARB to create it, although as it turns out they were given green rather than white stickers.
-- You mean BMW voluntarily chose to limit Rex to 6.5% SoC? Why would they do that? Did BMW need a bullet in the head? Let's face it. They were arm twisted by CARB due to some enviro-activist who wanted to reduce CO2 but was so incompetent that he/she could not see how his/her bad decision would hurt EV adoption. This is what happens when some activist who just graduated from a free university in sociology is given the power to decide on life and death matters. That is why there is a class action suit against CARB, for forcing range-anxiety on the masses with this nasty 6.5% decision. The proper solution was to limit the power of the Rex to let's say 10 kW to discourage long-distance traveling, but allow Rex to turn on at 100% SoC so there would be no range anxiety. The way it is now, the i3 can drive 70 mph without any charge, forever, and thus become an ICE. So it can easily be abused. And BMW can discourage BEV adoption by claiming that a 70 mph Rex is needed, which can only be found on a super expensive i3. A Rex should be for finding a charger, not for travelling 500 miles on gasoline at 70 mph.
Last edited by Interleaf on Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:34 pm, edited 5 times in total.
SL-QC, #5000+ blue - Delivery June 20, 2011 the day after the Calif. $5000 rebate ran out to $2500. Coincidence? Nah, dealer ***** Nissan is front-running.

SageBrush
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:03 am

@GRA
"Yes, it's true and it was widely discussed at the time here. The blame doesn't lie with CARB, it's with BMW for choosing the route they did solely to maximize their credits. There simply wouldn't be a BEVx category if they hadn't asked CARB to create it, although as it turns out they were given green rather than white stickers. Here's some history:"

Are you saying that BMW could have certified the car as a plug-in, like the Volt ?
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rmay635703
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:04 am

Bevx is an ignorant standard that should be abused.

There are two metrics California cares about

1. Traffic congestion ->smaller cars relieve congestion

2. Energy efficiency, higher efficiency inherently creates less CO2 and pollution by itself

If they wanted to create BEVx it should have had requirements to address both concerns, 80mpg on fossil fuels is easily accomplished on most any smaller ICE car with the right drivetrain.

Let the fuel economy requirement drive the manufacturers BEVx offering and limitations, in effect it would either be slow and bigger/less aero or small and sleek but faster on ICe.

Don't regulate the gas tank or operational standards as they don't matter.

SageBrush
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:10 am

Interleaf wrote:The problem is that enviro-fascist socialist in CARB, .

With name calling skills like yours, you have a bright future in Alt-right circles.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

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