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dgpcolorado
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:00 am

dhanson865 wrote:
GRA wrote:Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.


Said like a true Californian.

"Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."

So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition...
Exactly. For those of us in the large majority of the US the compliance cars, such as the Kia Soul and VW eGolf, are just noise. To use them as examples of serious EV competition is ludicrous.
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minispeed
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:02 am

dhanson865 wrote:
Though I hear they are selling it all over Canada, and parts of Europe.

They are selling it nationally here in Canada.
Yes, if by nationally you mean in 6-10 dealerships spread across three provinces. Each dealership allotted 1-2 Soul EVs per month until the supply of 50-60 units runs out.



so how about that e-Golf by VW?



I've been told the e-Golf will not be coming to Canada.

As for the soul EV if you look at where EV's have sold in Canada and how many have sold the roll out looks to be pretty strategic.

We also can't blame kia for only having 11 dealers because we don't know if that's how many choose to opt in or how many they let in. It may be Kia making a limited roll out or low volume dealers waiting to see how the car does first. The low number can only be a strike against them if they sell out quick and turn buyers away and then don't increase it for the next year. It wouldn't be the first time a new car gets limited numbers in Canada for the first year based on them being able to sell way more in the US. Even Nissan told me when I bought my leaf they get a run for Canada then that's it. No orders from the factory after that even though the factory is still making US leafs, only dealer trades. When or if those run out you have to wait for the next model year.
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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:08 pm

GRA wrote:Sure, but since the Bay Area is either #1 or #2 for total # of PEVs sold and % of PEVs sold, and we have that 40% of all PEVs for the state as a whole, it's clear that what happens here represents a major portion of PEV trends and impact.

Do you even understand what you are saying ?

You are saying ignore the actual numbers and just go with your speculation.

Reminds me of someone (actually a prominent "pundit" in WSJ, IIRC) saying Romney will definitely win because of all the yard signs they saw in one suburb in Florida.

To quote you quoting Keynens ...

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do YOU do, Sir?" J.M. Keynes
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:45 pm

GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?
Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.


While I don't know if those two cars will remain simply compliance cars, it is clear to anyone outside a handful of states that the Soul EV and e-Golf do NOT (yet) represent competition. And I say that as someone who lives in a state where both of them are sold (NY).

GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Nissan gave us a slight bump in battery size for 2016/2017, just to hold us over. It would be a mid-cycle refresh, given they said the current cycle began in 2013. I'm just not expecting much. Maybe an honest 100 EPA miles. That's a 19% increase. Not terrible. For reference, the battery in the 2016 Volt holds 15% more energy than the 2011 Volt.
The 'current' cycle began in 2010 (2011 MY), with the 2013 being the mid-cycle refresh. Except for adding some features to the 'S', Nissan hasn't made any major changes to the LEAF since then (barring any improvement the Lizard battery may provide). IMO it's unlikely they'll upgrade the pack capacity for 2016 - I think they'll just run out the current model until the next gen arrives. The current competitors are close enough to it in range (with the Soul and Spark having a small but real advantage), and given Nissan's behavior to date I don't see their corporate execs feeling they need a capacity increase in this generation. They'd much rather sell people the next gen cars.


Well, that is your opinion. Nissan clearly stated that they viewed the 2013 Leaf as a major upgrade and NOT a mid-cycle refresh. And they also clearly stated that they expected to Leaf to follow a normal 5-6 year full cycle starting in 2013. So that means 2018 (arriving in 2017) would be the next generation, and it would not be unreasonable to expect a mid-cycle update this year.

Andy Palmer said: “I think if you thought about a normal model cycle from 2013, that would be more realistic.”
http://insideevs.com/nissan-provides-de ... 017-debut/

But he also promised a mid-cycle refresh to 125 miles:
http://insideevs.com/nissan-exec-reliab ... f-by-2016/
~Brian

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TonyWilliams
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:46 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
dm33 wrote:A big change in the 2013 is much improved regen. That could easily account for the range difference and wouldn't show up in Tony's constant speed test.
Much improved regen? People who have owned both older and newer LEAFs have said that B mode is the equivalent of the regen in Eco in 2011/2012 LEAFs, the difference being that B mode can be used in D or Eco. But, if true, that isn't "much improved" (stronger) regen.

I thought the EPA testing regimen changed between the 2012 and 2013 model years, which would explain most of the higher EPA range for the 2013 (at 100%). IIRC the Cd also dropped a bit in the 2013, although whether that was a measurement correction or an actual reduction in drag was unclear (to me).


LEAF EPA Range Worldwide:

All current LEAFs will drive about 80-ish miles of REAL WORLD range when at 62mph (100km) ground speed on a level, no wind, hard surface roadway with no heater and a new condition battery at 70F/20C or above temperature.

Here the LEAF official government rated range worldwide:

124 miles = 200km Japan "EPA" rating for 2011-2012
142 miles = 228km Japan "EPA" for 2013

109 miles = 175km UK / Euro 2011-2012
124 miles = 199km UK / Euro 2013-2014

Here the LEAF official government range:

73 miles = EPA-USA 2011-2012 (EPA LA4 "city cycle" @ 19.59mph average, minus 30%)
75 miles = EPA-USA 2013 (EPA "5 cycle", average of 66 EPA miles range for 80% and 84 EPA miles for 100%)
84 miles = EPA-USA 2014 (EPA "5 cycle" test, 100% charge only)


Nissan has thrown out numbers like a bingo parlor for some time. With the impending release of the 2013 LEAF, they were suggesting to the press that a 2013 LEAF might go 250km (155 miles). Of course, the press just lap that up, as do EV advocates and EV consumers sometimes!

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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:51 pm

minispeed wrote:
GRA wrote:<Snip>
Sure, but since the Bay Area is either #1 or #2 for total # of PEVs sold and % of PEVs sold, and we have that 40% of all PEVs for the state as a whole, it's clear that what happens here represents a major portion of PEV trends and impact.



Possibly it's just the environment, state incentives, peoples' driving needs, environmental priorities and level of average income that tend to slot in nicely with what the current offerings are.

When we start to talk gen 2 BEV's with 150-200 mile of range for the cost of a stripped down Leaf S now the market will open up to a lot of people. Any of the major auto manufactures know that competing with each other for a slice of existing BEV market share is peanuts compared to taking it from the ICE market share and for that they have to pay close attention not to what the largest BEV markets want but the areas they haven't tapped into yet.

Nissan has already said it will move the leaf to a more traditional look away from the uniqueness that may have been to the taste of a lot of those bay area people. Chevy has already shown a new volt that to me does not say alternative at all. I've read reports that BMW is on the fence, depending on how well the i3 sells they may make the next electric a traditional bmw instead of expand the i brand or release an i5 which could or could not be alternative. I've also seen many guesses to an i5 that is basically a four door i3 but with no quote or interview with BMW so I pay little attention to that.

While the bay area will probably always be a higher % of BEV sales than the rest of the country the potential for total sales everywhere else far exceeds it.

Yes, the potential for greater sales in the rest of the country far exceeds it, but as we both agree it will take a BEV with far more range at a reasonable price to reach that potential. As it is, California accounts for about 11% of U.S. new car sales last time I checked, so with 40% of all new PEV sales being here (and 50% of all PEV cumulative to date here) we're clearly the 600 lb. gorilla of the market, at the moment.
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:23 pm

dhanson865 wrote:
GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?
Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.

Said like a true Californian.

A native, yet. :lol:

dhanson865 wrote:"Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."
Right, the 1st, 4th, 11th, 19th and 27th most populous states.

dhanson865 wrote:So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition.
Uh huh, and in those states where it is being sold, it is. So, the above states have an estimated 2014 population of 77.434 million out of an estimated U.S. population (50 states + D.C.) of 318.86 million, or 24.3%. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... erritories

dhanson865 wrote:According to VW, the E-Golf vehicle will be available “only at participating Volkswagen dealers in select states.” California dealerships are most likely to have inventory, but shoppers in these states should check with local dealers to confirm participation: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Adding states ranking 14th, 29th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th, upping the total population to 90.788 million, or 28.5% of the U.S. population (states plus D.C.)

dhanson865 wrote:Gee, maybe 5 more states in the list but still not my state so again not an option.

I feel for you, but as you can see, the Soul EV and/or e-Golf are direct competition to the LEAF in around a quarter of the country, and in most of the states with the highest PEV sales. Pity they're missing Hawaii, Washington and Florida, Minnesota, Colorado and maybe Tennesee. OTOH, they do conform pretty closely to this sales prediction for 2022 by ievs: http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa ... 25-states/

Oddly enough, I've been having great difficulty finding a site that lists the current sales by state.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:26 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
dhanson865 wrote:
GRA wrote:Soul EV and e-Golf, just to name two.


Said like a true Californian.

"Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."

So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition...
Exactly. For those of us in the large majority of the US the compliance cars, such as the Kia Soul and VW eGolf, are just noise. To use them as examples of serious EV competition is ludicrous.

See my post preceding this one.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:44 pm

evnow wrote:
GRA wrote:Sure, but since the Bay Area is either #1 or #2 for total # of PEVs sold and % of PEVs sold, and we have that 40% of all PEVs for the state as a whole, it's clear that what happens here represents a major portion of PEV trends and impact.

Do you even understand what you are saying ?

You are saying ignore the actual numbers and just go with your speculation.

Reminds me of someone (actually a prominent "pundit" in WSJ, IIRC) saying Romney will definitely win because of all the yard signs they saw in one suburb in Florida.

To quote you quoting Keynens ...

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do YOU do, Sir?" J.M. Keynes

Uh, no, I've given the actual numbers, 40% of all PEV sales are in California, and the Bay Area ranks #1 or #2 in PEV sales by metropolitan area in the country. But let's look at that 40% for California as a whole, shall we? The Soul was on sale for 3 months of 2014 and sold 359 cars per ievs.com. The e-golf was on sale for two, and sold virtually the same, 357. I believe VW was selling in more states initially, which may be the reason why the numbers are about equal.

The LEAF, e-Golf and Soul EV all sell for about $35-$36k MSRP comparably equipped, all are available with quick charging from the factory, all have at least 80 miles of EPA range, and they're in the same general size range (LEAF's bigger). Each has some advantages and disadvantages, but clearly they will be cross-shopped. Okay, let's assume for the sake of argument that 40% of those 716 cars were sold in California, although I expect the % was higher at least for the Soul, as it wasn't debuted in as many states. So, 716 x .4 = 286 cars. In those same 3 months, the LEAF sold 8,378 cars nationally x .4 = 3,351. 286/3351 is already 7.1%, for cars that are just starting to be introduced. We've already seen some defections from the LEAF to the Soul here, and may well see some to the e-Golf. Then there's whatever new sales they generate from people who wouldn't consider the LEAF. Wherever one or both are available with the LEAF in the same market, they will be competition for it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

dhanson865
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far

Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:35 am

GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:FWIW, many people seemed to expect a doubling of the battery size in the 2015 model, yet we still have the same 24kWh. I personally would not be surprised if Nissan drags out the current battery until Leaf 2.0 in spring 2017 (model year 2018). Yes, the car will be long in the tooth, but what is their competition doing? Oh wait, what competition?


dhanson865 wrote:"Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."

dhanson865 wrote:So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition.
Uh huh, and in those states where it is being sold, it is. So, the above states have an estimated 2014 population of 77.434 million out of an estimated U.S. population (50 states + D.C.) of 318.86 million, or 24.3%. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... erritories

dhanson865 wrote:According to VW, the E-Golf vehicle will be available “only at participating Volkswagen dealers in select states.” California dealerships are most likely to have inventory, but shoppers in these states should check with local dealers to confirm participation: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Adding states ranking 14th, 29th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th, upping the total population to 90.788 million, or 28.5% of the U.S. population (states plus D.C.)

dhanson865 wrote:Gee, maybe 5 more states in the list but still not my state so again not an option.

I feel for you, but as you can see, the Soul EV and/or e-Golf are direct competition to the LEAF in around a quarter of the country, and in most of the states with the highest PEV sales. Pity they're missing Hawaii, Washington and Florida, Minnesota, Colorado and maybe Tennesee. OTOH, they do conform pretty closely to this sales prediction for 2022 by ievs: http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa ... 25-states/

Oddly enough, I've been having great difficulty finding a site that lists the current sales by state.


So by your own numbers 72-75% of the country can't buy one but you think that's competition for Nissan to be concerned about. Wow. You make my case for me and still ignore it.

Tesla makes an expensive EV and Nissan makes a cheap EV. No other 50 state competition unless you want to bring the regular Prius into the mix.

Note I'm not talking Plug in Prius, the PiP isn't available for a reasonable price outside of those few states again. So for ~75% of us the PiP doesn't exist as an option either. Not even as a used car, I can get a used Leaf around $10,000 now and a used PiP for about $19,000. At roughly twice the price it just isn't an option.
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