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OrientExpress
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Leaf Number: 2331
Location: San Jose, Ca

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:11 pm

evnow wrote:Some of us early adopters will probably jump ship to Tesla 3 - esp. if Leaf 2 comes later than Tesla 3 ! But then, Nissan would probably find it hard to compete with Tesla 3 anyway - and would have to come up with cheaper, attractive packages.


When the Tesla 3 finally makes it to market in significant quantities in the 2019 -2020 timeframe It will still be priced significantly higher than the LEAF will be. I expect the there will be significant wailing and gnashing of teeth when all the Tesla 3 big hope/small pocketbook intenders find that the Model 3 will be in the $50-60K price range once it is configured to their liking. There may be a $40K Model 3 available, but its configuration will be such that very few will be ordered.

Nissan is working on continuing to own the $20-35K BEV space, simply because low-priced cars are their expertise. As we have seen, the first generation LEAF has been a great success as a commuter car that can serve 60-90% of a drivers needs. Most of a LEAF is a conventional car sharing its chassis, and most other non-drivetrain components with other Nissan vehicles. That strategy allows then to keep costs down while making incremental improvements that increase the value of the car. Combine that with the classic technology cost decline/efficiency improvement trend, will allow them to offer a car with features like the generation one LEAF at a sub-$20K price point in the very near future. Demand in China is currently driving that project.

So all in all this is good news for all that are rooting for EVs. In a short 6 years we have passed the tipping point for BEVs where they are no longer oddities only driven by Birkenstock wearing geriatric tree hugggers, but rather serious 21st century automotive transportation solutions, with every automaker and many new ones pouring billions of dollars into having an offering in this space. This in turn is feeding an entire ecosystem of infrastructure providers, technology advancement for intelligent driving systems, big data and connected car systems (Microsoft jumped in last week by bringing its cloud computing services to future Nissan vehicles), and other services and products to support this evolution.

Lastly with everyone getting in the game, competition will continue to be ruthless in bringing down the costs of acquiring a BEV. I'm very optimistic about how this is all playing out.
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

LeftieBiker
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:22 pm

On the subject of option packages rather than being able to configure a car a-la-carte, get used to packages. On low cost vehicles, the margins are just too thin and inventory management is too complex to offer build-to-order configuring.


I'm ok with packages, but what GM did with the Bolt is not ok and will slow sales; people are already commenting that the Premiere isn't worth paying $4300 more for parking cameras and cheap leather-trimmed hard seats. You should be able to get safety packages - including parking cameras - with Base or mid-trim models as well. Nissan, by offering a mid-level SV trim with all the best options available, did the right thing.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

GRA
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:48 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
On the subject of option packages rather than being able to configure a car a-la-carte, get used to packages. On low cost vehicles, the margins are just too thin and inventory management is too complex to offer build-to-order configuring.


I'm ok with packages, but what GM did with the Bolt is not ok and will slow sales; people are already commenting that the Premiere isn't worth paying $4300 more for parking cameras and cheap leather-trimmed hard seats. You should be able to get safety packages - including parking cameras - with Base or mid-trim models as well. Nissan, by offering a mid-level SV trim with all the best options available, did the right thing.

+1 on the bolded section. There are plenty of us (well, some at least) who care about performance, utility and safety options that improve functionality, but don't need or want the prestige/luxury/gimmick stuff, which is why so many people bitched about the Falcon-Wing Doors on the Model X, and are saying they (and self-presenting door handles, both of which are bound to be unreliable and expensive to repair out of warranty) better not be standard on the Model Y - see the comments here: http://insideevs.com/7-features-we-migh ... a-model-y/ . I can live without the all-around camera and have no need or desire for leather or distracting touchscreen/menu-based climate/infotainment controls, but any car I consider buying from here on out has to have AEB and cloth seats, and I'd also like the rear-view camera on the mirror display like the Bolt. AEB will become standard across the board in several years, but that's no reason to deny it to those people who care about safety rather than fluff in the meantime.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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OrientExpress
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Location: San Jose, Ca

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:18 pm

How would you guys feel about a technology and a lighting package for the mid-level SV trim LEAF? This is the trim with cloth upholstery.

The Tech package would include smart cruise control, lane departure assistant, blind spot monitoring, and emergency braking. The lighting package would be LED headlights and fog lights.

This would allow you to build a cloth interior car with the upscale technology and lighting parts.
2014 LEAF SV
Ocean Blue
Delivery May 23 2014
46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

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evnow
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:24 pm

OrientExpress wrote:When the Tesla 3 finally makes it to market in significant quantities in the 2019 -2020 timeframe It will still be priced significantly higher than the LEAF will be. I expect the there will be significant wailing and gnashing of teeth when all the Tesla 3 big hope/small pocketbook intenders find that the Model 3 will be in the $50-60K price range once it is configured to their liking. There may be a $40K Model 3 available, but its configuration will be such that very few will be ordered.

I'm a bit more optimistic. I expect to get my ~ $40k Model 3 sometime in 2018. Ofcourse people who haven't already reserved probably won't get one before 2019/20.

Sure, the car can be configured to go to $80k - but likely for much higher battery sizes, I don't need at this point. BTW, some comments by Tesla indicates they think the avg price will be $42k or $43k.

To be competitive Leaf 2/ Bolt will have to significantly undercut Model 3. I'm sure Nissan/GM know this.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

webeleafowners
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Location: Okanagan Valley British Columbia

Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:31 pm

evnow wrote:
OrientExpress wrote:When the Tesla 3 finally makes it to market in significant quantities in the 2019 -2020 timeframe It will still be priced significantly higher than the LEAF will be. I expect the there will be significant wailing and gnashing of teeth when all the Tesla 3 big hope/small pocketbook intenders find that the Model 3 will be in the $50-60K price range once it is configured to their liking. There may be a $40K Model 3 available, but its configuration will be such that very few will be ordered.

I'm a bit more optimistic. I expect to get my ~ $40k Model 3 sometime in 2018. Ofcourse people who haven't already reserved probably won't get one before 2019/20.

Sure, the car can be configured to go to $80k - but likely for much higher battery sizes, I don't need at this point. BTW, some comments by Tesla indicates they think the avg price will be $42k or $43k.

To be competitive Leaf 2/ Bolt will have to significantly undercut Model 3. I'm sure Nissan/GM know this.


I agree and I think the Nissan Leaf SV will continue to be available for mid to high 20's Although I might be willing to pay more because it is a Tesla, I would not be willing to pay more for more range. Anything over 200 KM (120 ish miles) is a total waste for us. I would think the range thing will become more of a penis size thing for many over the next 4 or 5 years.
2015 Smart Electric Drive convertible.
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edatoakrun
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:35 pm

OrientExpress wrote:I had the opportunity to attend the Nissan CES executive roundtable on Thursday, and yes there were no firm announcements about LEAF2, but after talking with a number of the Nissan engineering and product marketing executives, if I was a betting man, I would put money down for a CY17/Q4 start of deliveries of LEAF2.

The other thing I found interesting is that Nissan feels that there is still lots of life in Chademo with much higher charging rates than in the current version, and they aren't entertaining the option of a move to SAE charging standards...

Since Chademo seems to offer superior V to grid, building, and home potential, that is welcome news.

Assuming LEAF gen 2 is not announced by CG in his keynote in Detroit tomorrow, It looks to me like Nissan's LEAF Gen 2 marketing strategy may be in laying the groundwork for sitting out the battery capacity wars by emphasizing all the other features the LEAF 2 will have, that the competing BEVs lack.

I'm hoping I'll be able to order my Nissan V to home device soon, especially if it is compatible with the Gen 1 LEAF I already own.


Nissan at 2017 North American International Auto Show

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=23214

edatoakrun wrote:From the PR below, it doesn't sound like we should expect the LEAF gen 2 at Detroit.

It does sound like making the new LEAF's battery accessible for off-board use may be a major selling point, (along with AV capabilities announced yesterday at CES) when we eventually see the Gen 2.

Jan 6, 2017

Nissan takes major role at 2017 North American International Auto Show’s AutoMobili-D exposition

DETROIT – Nissan today announced it will be a major participant in the inaugural AutoMobili-D event, which takes place January 8 through 12 in conjunction with the 2017 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS). Nissan's major activities will include:

A keynote speech by Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn on Monday, January 9 at 3 p.m. EST
A future technology display featuring a "refreshing" demonstration of LEAF-to-Home possibilities with a smoothie machine powered by Nissan LEAF – the world leader in pure electric vehicle sales...

EV batteries can do more than just provide power for driving – they can also be used as energy storage devices – and Nissan is a leading proponent of "Vehicle to Home," "Vehicle to Building" and "Vehicle to Grid" solutions. Nissan is working with various organizations around the country, including utilities, research organizations, charger manufacturers, regulators and other government agencies, as well as the general public, in both demonstration projects and further research.

Nissan is heavily focused on preparing for "LEAF-to-Home" commercialization in the U.S., similar to what is available on the market in Japan today. In 2012, Nissan introduced this system in Japan, allowing drivers to supply a house with the energy stored in a Nissan LEAF battery. By charging the vehicle at night when electricity is cheaper and powering a household during the day, the system assists in alleviating power consumption during peak periods when demand is highest and most expensive. It can also be used as a backup power supply for blackouts and emergencies...

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/ ... ity-at-ces
no condition is permanent

fotajoye
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Leaf Number: 669
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:58 pm

webeleafowners wrote:
evnow wrote:
OrientExpress wrote:When the Tesla 3 finally makes it to market in significant quantities in the 2019 -2020 timeframe It will still be priced significantly higher than the LEAF will be. I expect the there will be significant wailing and gnashing of teeth when all the Tesla 3 big hope/small pocketbook intenders find that the Model 3 will be in the $50-60K price range once it is configured to their liking. There may be a $40K Model 3 available, but its configuration will be such that very few will be ordered.

I'm a bit more optimistic. I expect to get my ~ $40k Model 3 sometime in 2018. Ofcourse people who haven't already reserved probably won't get one before 2019/20.

Sure, the car can be configured to go to $80k - but likely for much higher battery sizes, I don't need at this point. BTW, some comments by Tesla indicates they think the avg price will be $42k or $43k.

To be competitive Leaf 2/ Bolt will have to significantly undercut Model 3. I'm sure Nissan/GM know this.


I agree and I think the Nissan Leaf SV will continue to be available for mid to high 20's Although I might be willing to pay more because it is a Tesla, I would not be willing to pay more for more range. Anything over 200 KM (120 ish miles) is a total waste for us. I would think the range thing will become more of a penis size thing for many over the next 4 or 5 years.


The thing to remember about batteries is even if you don't need 200 miles on one charge, the life of the battery is affected by charging it.. Each time you charge it, you decrease the life just a little. A longer range battery will give you the headroom to skip having to charge as often or to only charge to 80% and perhaps help extend the life of the battery. Maybe some day we will have lifetime batteries; but, that's still not the case today. As far as I can figure, Nissan uses 70% capacity as the rule for changing out the battery in current Leafs.

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OrientExpress
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:04 pm

In Las Vegas Nissan made it clear that they are all in for the bigger picture of Zero emissions and Zero fatalities with their vehicles, so that means your car can do more than just get you from point A to point B.

The long range, big battery rationale is valid for some, but for others the big cost, long recharge time, more weight concerns encourage a shorter range, lower cost, shorter recharge time, and lighter weight solution.

The trick is figuring out the mix of product for both of those needs.
2014 LEAF SV
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Delivery May 23 2014
46,000+ miles - all 12 bars - Same range as new - No warranty issues ever!

LeftieBiker
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:31 pm

OrientExpress wrote:How would you guys feel about a technology and a lighting package for the mid-level SV trim LEAF? This is the trim with cloth upholstery.

The Tech package would include smart cruise control, lane departure assistant, blind spot monitoring, and emergency braking. The lighting package would be LED headlights and fog lights.

This would allow you to build a cloth interior car with the upscale technology and lighting parts.


That sounds good, with the proviso that they have to fix the current high beams on all trims. Offering better lights as a pricey option when the base lights are terrible is holding safe night driving for ransom. The apparent test mule photo that someone posted shows different, smoother headlamps. Lets hope they hold better high beams and low beams that are at least no worse. Those high beams are the biggest reason I'm not seriously considering getting a new Leaf.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

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