evnow wrote:Some of us early adopters will probably jump ship to Tesla 3 - esp. if Leaf 2 comes later than Tesla 3 ! But then, Nissan would probably find it hard to compete with Tesla 3 anyway - and would have to come up with cheaper, attractive packages.
When the Tesla 3 finally makes it to market in significant quantities in the 2019 -2020 timeframe It will still be priced significantly higher than the LEAF will be. I expect the there will be significant wailing and gnashing of teeth when all the Tesla 3 big hope/small pocketbook intenders find that the Model 3 will be in the $50-60K price range once it is configured to their liking. There may be a $40K Model 3 available, but its configuration will be such that very few will be ordered.
Nissan is working on continuing to own the $20-35K BEV space, simply because low-priced cars are their expertise. As we have seen, the first generation LEAF has been a great success as a commuter car that can serve 60-90% of a drivers needs. Most of a LEAF is a conventional car sharing its chassis, and most other non-drivetrain components with other Nissan vehicles. That strategy allows then to keep costs down while making incremental improvements that increase the value of the car. Combine that with the classic technology cost decline/efficiency improvement trend, will allow them to offer a car with features like the generation one LEAF at a sub-$20K price point in the very near future. Demand in China is currently driving that project.
So all in all this is good news for all that are rooting for EVs. In a short 6 years we have passed the tipping point for BEVs where they are no longer oddities only driven by Birkenstock wearing geriatric tree hugggers, but rather serious 21st century automotive transportation solutions, with every automaker and many new ones pouring billions of dollars into having an offering in this space. This in turn is feeding an entire ecosystem of infrastructure providers, technology advancement for intelligent driving systems, big data and connected car systems (Microsoft jumped in last week by bringing its cloud computing services to future Nissan vehicles), and other services and products to support this evolution.
Lastly with everyone getting in the game, competition will continue to be ruthless in bringing down the costs of acquiring a BEV. I'm very optimistic about how this is all playing out.