finman100
Posts: 286
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:42 am
Delivery Date: 06 Jun 2014
Location: Albany, OR

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:23 pm

Yay!
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
42,000 miles
18.0 kWh on 100% charge (52-ish Ah), down 1 bar
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

pbennett
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:18 pm
Delivery Date: 19 Sep 2013
Leaf Number: 413367
Location: Carmel, IN

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:28 pm

Durandal wrote:Tesla Model 3 is actually rolling out with less optioned models first, in order to simplify production, with dual motor and performance version rolling out in late 2017 or Q1 2018. As such, you can expect $36k - 7.5k = $28,500.


The Tesla will start losing their tax credits fairly soon.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/04/fe ... lear-sort/

Durandal
Posts: 315
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:19 pm

pbennett wrote:
Durandal wrote:Tesla Model 3 is actually rolling out with less optioned models first, in order to simplify production, with dual motor and performance version rolling out in late 2017 or Q1 2018. As such, you can expect $36k - 7.5k = $28,500.


The Tesla will start losing their tax credits fairly soon.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/04/fe ... lear-sort/

By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year. :)
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf, and a Tesla Model 3 reservation expected to receive in June 2018.

pbennett
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:18 pm
Delivery Date: 19 Sep 2013
Leaf Number: 413367
Location: Carmel, IN

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:23 pm

Which is when the reductions could start... Not sure why you're so sure when you'll get it either, since Tesla hasn't told anyone when they'll get it. I've never received anything from them beyond 'thanks for the money...'. As for their build estimates, Tesla has never been right about any of their timelines or build schedules, ever.

Food for thought. I'll likely either get a Bolt or if more details on the new Leaf come out soon enough - a leaf.

User avatar
jlv
Posts: 570
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:08 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:35 pm

Durandal wrote:
pbennett wrote:The Tesla will start losing their tax credits fairly soon.

By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced?
Just to be clear: Q3 or Q4 of 2018. I guess that's "soon".
'13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17)Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Model 3 reservation
(Probably no LEAF2 for me)

Dooglas
Posts: 176
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:08 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2017
Leaf Number: 314779
Location: Oregon City, OR

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:44 pm

Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off of the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/
Last edited by Dooglas on Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 Leaf SV - lease ended, 2016 Leaf S30

GRA
Posts: 7584
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:43 pm

Dooglas wrote:
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

We can expect Tesla to juggle deliveries to maximize the number of cars that will qualify for the rebate, i.e. they'll make sure to just fall short of the cut-off at the end of whichever quarter they approach it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
Posts: 1498
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:52 pm

So long as Tesla is producing 20k cars a month when the phase-out approaches and Tesla manages the roll-out as reported, it seems fair to estimate at least 155k Model 3 will be eligible for the full tax credit. Since about half of the reservations are outside the US, that suggests that at around 90% of US 2016 reservation holders will be eligible for $7,500 and the remainder eligible for $3,750

Bottom line: Nissan cannot rely on a bigger tax credit to help them take sales from Tesla.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

SageBrush
Posts: 1498
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:01 pm

Dooglas wrote:
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

A lot more than half of the US reservations are likely to receive the full rebate, since about half of total reservation are from outside the US
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

Dooglas
Posts: 176
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:08 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2017
Leaf Number: 314779
Location: Oregon City, OR

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:47 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Dooglas wrote:
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

A lot more than half of the US reservations are likely to receive the full rebate, since about half of total reservation are from outside the US

So, you agree or disagree that the above calculations are a reasonable estimate?
2013 Leaf SV - lease ended, 2016 Leaf S30

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